豫01井水位动态趋势下降因素探讨

探讨了河南范县豫０１井水位自１９９６年９月份以来持续下降的原因,对有可能影响该井水位动态的诸多因素逐一进行了对比分析和研究,认为范县豫０１井自１９９６年９月至今的水位下降与中原油田抽水、注水、采油无关;而当地降雨降荷载效应外没有短期渗流反映;山西长治一带降雨量变化与豫０１井的水位变化基本无关;山东梁册县９７井水位动态与豫０１井水位动太县有较好的一致性,表明山东梁山是豫０１井地下水的补级源,指出该井１９９６年９月至今的水位趋势下降主要是１９９７年干旱、降雨量减少,地下水不能充分地补给所致,亦可能与近年来范地区地壳应力活动增强有关。     

The Sensitivity Of A Stratocumulus Transition: Model Simulations Of The Astex First Lagrangian

In this study, a one-dimensional ensemble-average model is used to simulatethe Atlantic Stratocumulus Transition Experiment firstLagrangian, where the same airmass was followed from the subtropical high pressure region en route towards the trade wind region. The airmass experiences increasing sea-surface temperature and achange from subsidence to weak ascent on its way south. Thiscauses the marine boundary layer (MBL)to grow and the cloud deck to change from a solid stratocumulus deck tomore broken stratocumulus clouds with cumulus cloudsdeveloping beneath, and reaching up into the stratocumulus clouds.A control run is analyzed and compared in detail with theobservations. Both a statistical evaluation and a more subjective evaluation are performed, where both establish confidencein the model performance. The model captures the MBL growth and the cloudliquid water, as well as the drizzle flux, is well predicted by the model.A sensitivity study was performed with the objective of examining theMBL and the cloud response to external and internal 'forces'.The results show that, if drizzle formation is not allowed,unrealistically high cloud liquid water mixing ratios are predicted. Even though the drizzle flux is very small, it is still important for the water budget of the MBL and for the boundary-layer dynamics.We also found that the sea-surface temperature increase is more important for the increasing cloud top height than the synoptic-scale divergence fields. However, the synoptic-scale subsidence is crucial during the first day, when the sea-surface temperature was constant, in keepingthe cloud top at a constant height. Drizzle evaporation below the cloud base seems to be important for below-cloud condensation. The drizzle predictions are significantly altered when the prescribed cloud droplet and/or drizzle drop numbers are altered.     

桂林市暴雨预报系统

桂林市暴雨预报系统是对当天的实况资料进行分型,再通过指标法以及结合T106数值预报产品和在老预报员经验的基础上制作出的一个应用简便、直观、有效的暴雨预报方法.     

Impacts of Climate Change on Growth Period and Planting Boundaries of Spring Wheat in China under RCP4.5 Scenario

This article contributes to research on how climate change will impact crops in China by moving from ex-post empirical analysis to forecasting. We construct a multiple regression model, using agricultural observations and meteorological simulations by GCMs, to simulate the possible planting boundaries and suitable planting regions of spring wheat under RCP4.5 scenario for the base period 2040s and 2070s. We find that the south boundary of possible planting region for spring wheat spreads along the belt: south Shandong-north Jiangsu-north Anhui-central Henan-north Hubei-southeast Sichuan-north Yunnan provinces, and will likely move northward under RCP4.5 scenario in 2040s and 2070s, resulting in the decrease of possible planting area in China. Moreover, the sowing and harvest date of spring wheat in the base period shows a gradually delayed phenomenon from the belt: south Xinjiang - Gansu, to the Tibet Plateau. As a result, the growth period of spring wheat in China will shorten because of the impacts of climate change. These results imply that a variety of adaptations measures should be set up in response to changing climatic conditions, including developing the planting base for spring wheat, restricting the planting area of spring wheat in sub-suitable areas at risk while expanding the planting area of optimal crops.     

The analytical continuation bias in geoid determination using potential coefficients and terrestrial gravity data

One important application of an Earth Gravity Model (EGM) is to determine the geoid. Since an EGM is represented by an external-type series of spherical harmonics, a biased geoid model is obtained when the EGM is applied inside the masses in continental regions. In order to convert the downward-continued height anomaly to the corresponding geoid undulation, a correction has to be applied for the analytical continuation bias of the geoid height. This technique is here called the geoid bias method. A correction for the geoid bias can also be utilised when an EGM is combined with terrestrial gravity data, using the combined approach to topographic corrections. The geoid bias can be computed either by a strict integral formula, or by means of one or more terms in a binomial expansion. The accuracy of the lowest binomial terms is studied numerically. It is concluded that the first term (of power H²) can be used with high accuracy up to degree 360 everywhere on Earth. If very high mountains are disregarded, then the use of the H² term can be extended up to maximum degrees as high as 1800. It is also shown that the geoid bias method is practically equal to the technique applied by Rapp, which utilises the quasigeoid-to-geoid separation. Another objective is to carefully consider how the combined approach to topographic corrections should be interpreted. This includes investigations of how the above-mentioned H² term should be computed, as well as how it can be improved by a correction for the residual geoid bias. It is concluded that the computation of the combined topographic effect is efficient in the case that the residual geoid bias can be neglected, since the computation of the latter is very time consuming. It is nevertheless important to be able to compute the residual bias for individual stations. For reasonable maximum degrees, this can be used to check the quality of the H² approximation in different situations.Acknowledgement The author would like to thank Prof. L.E. Sjöberg for several ideas and for reading two draft versions of the paper. His support and constructive remarks have improved its quality considerably. The valuable suggestions from three unknown reviewers are also appreciated.     

密近双星自转的测量和研究(V)轨道圆化

作为密近双星自转测量和研究的系列文章之一，本文从轨道圆化的角度讨论了Ｚａｈｎ的动力学潮汐机制及粘滞理论、Ｔａｓｏｕｌ的纯流体动力学理论与实测数据的符合程度．对前文（文ＩＶ）中的２９个不相接双星系统，均分别计算出了以上理论所预期的轨道圆化时标，分析比较了各系统的理论圆化时标与它的年龄及轨道圆化程度间的关系．结果表明：动力学潮汐、粘滞理论的计算结果比纯流体动力学机制的预期更符合实测数据．但与文（ＩＶ）的结果相比，动力学潮汐、粘滞理论对轨道圆化过程的预期不如它对自转同步问题的预期那样准确．本文认为，动力学潮汐和气体沾滞是密近双星系统轨道圆化的两种主要机制，但决不是唯一的机制．在主序前和ＡＧＢ后两演化阶段，纯流体动力学机制可能起较重要作用     

The Palaeoproterozoic Kristineberg VMS deposit, Skellefte district, northern Sweden, part I: geology

The Kristineberg volcanic-hosted massive sulphide (VMS) deposit, located in the westernmost part of the Palaeoproterozoic Skellefte district, northern Sweden, has yielded 22.4 Mt of ore, grading 1.0% Cu, 3.64% Zn, 0.24% Pb, 1.24 g/t Au, 36 g/t Ag and 25.9% S, since the mine opened in 1941, and is the largest past and present VMS mine in the district. The deposit is hosted in a thick pile of felsic to intermediate and minor mafic metavolcanic rocks of the Skellefte Group, which forms the lowest stratigraphic unit in the district and hosts more than 85 known massive sulphide deposits. The Kristineberg deposit is situated lower in the Skellefte Group than most other deposits. It comprises three main ore zones: (1) massive sulphide lenses of the A-ore (historically the main ore), having a strike length of about 1,400 m, and extending from surface to about 1,200 m depth, (2) massive sulphide lenses of the B-ore, situated 100–150 m structurally above the A-ore, and extending from surface to about 1,000 m depth, (3) the recently discovered Einarsson zone, which occurs in the vicinity of the B-ore at about 1,000 m depth, and consists mainly of Au–Cu-rich veins and heavily disseminated sulphides, together with massive sulphide lenses. On a regional scale the Kristineberg deposit is flanked by two major felsic rock units: massive rhyolite A to the south and the mine porphyry to the north. The three main ore zones lie within a schistose, deformed and metamorphosed package of hydrothermally altered, dominantly felsic volcanic rocks, which contain varying proportions of quartz, muscovite, chlorite, phlogopite, pyrite, cordierite and andalusite. The strongest alteration occurs within 5–10 m of the ore lenses. Stratigraphic younging within the mine area is uncertain as primary bedding and volcanic textures are absent due to strong alteration, and tectonic folding and shearing. In the vicinity of the ore lenses, hydrothermal alteration has produced both Mg-rich assemblages (Mg-chlorite, cordierite, phlogopite and locally talc) and quartz–muscovite–andalusite assemblages. Both types of assemblages commonly contain disseminated pyrite. The sequence of volcanic and ore-forming events at Kristineberg is poorly constrained, as the ages of the massive rhyolite and mine porphyry are unknown, and younging indicators are absent apart from local metal zoning in the A-ores. Regional structural trends, however, suggest that the sequence youngs to the south. The A- and B-ores are interpreted to have formed as synvolcanic sulphide sheets that were originally separated by some 100–150 m of volcanic rocks. The Einarsson zone, which is developed close to the 1,000 m level, is interpreted to have resulted in part from folding and dislocation of the B-ore sulphide sheet, and in part from remobilisation of sulphides into small Zn-rich massive sulphide lenses and late Au–Cu-rich veins. However, the abundance of strongly altered, andalusite-bearing rocks in the Einarsson zone, coupled with the occurrence of Au–Cu-rich disseminated sulphides in these rocks, suggests that some of the mineralisation was synvolcanic and formed from strongly acidic hydrothermal fluids. Editorial handling: P. Weihed     

Alteration paragenesis and mineral chemistry of the Tjårrojåkka apatite–iron and Cu (-Au) occurrences, Kiruna area, northern Sweden

The northern Norrbotten area in northern Sweden, is an important mining district and hosts several deposits of Fe-oxide Cu-Au-type. One of the best examples of spatially, and possibly genetically, related apatite–iron and copper–gold deposits in the region is at Tjårrojåkka, 50 km WSW of Kiruna. The deposits are hosted by strongly sheared and metamorphosed intermediate volcanic rocks and dolerites and show a structural control. The Tjårrojåkka iron deposit is a typical apatite–iron ore of Kiruna-type and the Tjårrojåkka copper occurrence shows the same characteristics as most other epigenetic deposits in Norrbotten. The host rock has been affected by strong albite and K-feldspar alteration related to mineralisation, resulting in an enrichment of Na, K, and Ba. Fe and V were depleted in the altered zones and added in mineralised samples. REE were enriched in the system, with the greatest addition related to mineralisation. Y was also mobile associated with albite alteration and copper mineralisation. The Tjårrojåkka iron and copper deposits show comparable hydrothermal alteration minerals and paragenesis, which might be a product of common host rock and similarities in ore fluid composition, or overprinting by successive alteration stages. Mineralogy and mineral chemistry of the alteration minerals (apatite, scapolite, feldspars, amphiboles, and biotite) indicate a higher salinity and Ba/K ratio in the fluid related to the alterations in the apatite–iron occurrence than in the copper deposit, where the minerals are enriched in F and S. The presence of hematite, barite, and in SO₄ in scapolite suggests more oxidising-rich conditions during the emplacement of the Tjårrojåkka-Cu deposit. From existing data it might be suggested that one evolving system created the two occurrences, with the copper mineralisation representing a slightly later product.     

‘Modelling the Arctic Boundary Layer: An Evaluation of Six Arcmip Regional-Scale Models using Data from the Sheba Project’

A primary climate change signal in the central Arctic is the melting of sea ice. This is dependent on the interplay between the atmosphere and the sea ice, which is critically dependent on the exchange of momentum, heat and moisture at the surface. In assessing the realism of climate change scenarios it is vital to know the quality by which these exchanges are modelled in climate simulations. Six state-of-the-art regional-climate models are run for one year in the western Arctic, on a common domain that encompasses the Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean (SHEBA) experiment ice-drift track. Surface variables, surface fluxes and the vertical structure of the lower troposphere are evaluated using data from the SHEBA experiment. All the models are driven by the same lateral boundary conditions, sea-ice fraction and sea and sea-ice surface temperatures. Surface pressure, near-surface air temperature, specific humidity and wind speed agree well with observations, with a falling degree of accuracy in that order. Wind speeds have systematic biases in some models, by as much as a few metres per second. The surface radiation fluxes are also surprisingly accurate, given the complexity of the problem. The turbulent momentum flux is acceptable, on average, in most models, but the turbulent heat fluxes are, however, mostly unreliable. Their correlation with observed fluxes is, in principle, insignificant, and they accumulate over a year to values an order of magnitude larger than observed. Typical instantaneous errors are easily of the same order of magnitude as the observed net atmospheric heat flux. In the light of the sensitivity of the atmosphere–ice interaction to errors in these fluxes, the ice-melt in climate change scenarios must be viewed with considerable caution.