Mapping global land system archetypes

Land use is a key driver of global environmental change. Unless major shifts in consumptive behaviours occur, land-based production will have to increase drastically to meet future demands for food and other commodities. One approach to better understand the drivers and impacts of agricultural intensification is the identification of global, archetypical patterns of land systems. Current approaches focus on broad-scale representations of dominant land cover with limited consideration of land-use intensity. In this study, we derived a new global representation of land systems based on more than 30 high-resolution datasets on land-use intensity, environmental conditions and socioeconomic indicators. Using a self-organizing map algorithm, we identified and mapped twelve archetypes of land systems for the year 2005. Our analysis reveals similarities in land systems across the globe but the diverse pattern at sub-national scales implies that there are no ‘one-size-fits-all’ solutions to sustainable land management. Our results help to identify generic patterns of land pressures and environmental threats and provide means to target regionalized strategies to cope with the challenges of global change. Mapping global archetypes of land systems represents a first step towards better understanding the global patterns of human–environment interactions and the environmental and social outcomes of land system dynamics.     

Use of sedimentary diatoms from multiple lakes to distinguish between past changes in trophic state and climate: evidence for climate change in northern Germany during the past 5,000 years

Fossil diatoms from lake sediments have been used to infer both past trophic state and climate conditions. In Europe, climate reconstructions focused on northern and alpine regions because these areas are climatically sensitive and anthropogenic impact was low. In contrast, anthropogenic impact was often high in the central European lowlands, such as northern Germany, beginning in the Neolithic Age, ~3700 BC. Since that time, trophic state change was the main factor that affected diatom assemblages in central European lowland lakes. Therefore, it was considered difficult or impossible to identify climate changes in the region using sedimented diatoms. We used diatom assemblage changes, diatom-inferred total phosphorus concentrations and the relative abundance of planktonic diatoms from sediments of three lakes that differ in their location, size, morphology, catchment area and current trophic state to test whether we could distinguish between trophic state and climate signals over the past 5,000 years in northern Germany. In this study, changes in trophic state and climate were well differentiated. In the study lakes, relative abundance of planktonic diatoms seems to be linked to the length of lake mixing phases. Planktonic diatom abundance decreased during years with shorter mixing duration, and these shorter mixing times probably reflect colder winters. The diatom-inferred periods of short mixing phases from 1000 BC to AD 500 and from AD 1300 to 1800 coincide well with two known cooling phases in Europe and the North Atlantic region.     

5. Die Beziehungen zwischen flachachsiger und steilachsiger Tektonik im Vindelgransele-Gebiet,Västerbotten. Nordschweden

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

Deep vs. shallow controlling factors of the crustal thermal field – insights from 3D modelling of the Beaufort‐Mackenzie Basin (Arctic Canada)

Significant lateral variations in observed temperatures in the Beaufort‐Mackenzie Basin raise the question on the temperature‐controlling factors. Based on the structural configuration of the sediments and underlying crust in the area, we calculate the steady‐state 3D conductive thermal field. Integrated data include the base of the relic permafrost layer representing the 0 °C‐isotherm, public‐domain temperature data (from 227 wells) and thermal conductivity data. For >75% of the wells the predicted temperatures deviate by <10 K from the observed temperatures, which validates the overall model setup and adopted thermal properties. One important trend reproduced by the model is a decrease in temperatures from the western to the eastern basin. While in the west, a maximum temperature of 185 °C is reached at 5000 m below sea level, in the east the maximum temperature is 138 °C. The main cause for this pattern lies in lateral variations in thermal conductivity indicating differences in the shale and sand contents of the different juxtaposed sedimentary units. North‐to‐south temperature trends reveal the superposition of deep and shallow effects. At the southern margin, where the insulating effect of the low‐conductive sediments is missing, temperatures are lowest. Farther north, where the sub‐sedimentary continental crust is thick enough to produce considerable heat and a thick pile of sediments efficiently stores heat, temperatures tend to be highest. Temperatures decrease again towards the northernmost distal parts of the basin, where thinned continental and oceanic crust produce less radiogenic heat. Wells with larger deviations of the purely conductive model from the temperature observations (>15 K at 10% of the wells) and their basin‐wide pattern of misfit tendency (too cold vs. too warm temperature predictions) point to a locally restricted coupling of heat transport to groundwater flow.     

Basin-scale analysis of rainfall and runoff in Peru (1969–2004): Pacific,Titicaca and Amazonas drainages

Abstract

We present a procedure for estimating Q95 low flows in both gauged and ungauged catchments where Q95 is the flow that is exceeded 95% of the time. For each step of the estimation procedure, a number of alternative methods was tested on the Austrian data set by leave-one-out cross-validation, and the method that performed best was used in the final procedure. To maximise the accuracy of the estimates, we combined relevant sources of information including long streamflow records, short streamflow records, and catchment characteristics, according to data availability. Rather than deriving a single low flow estimate for each catchment, we estimated lower and upper confidence limits to allow local information to be incorporated in a practical application of the procedure. The components of the procedure consist of temporal (climate) adjustments for short records; grouping catchments into eight seasonality-based regions; regional regressions of low flows with catchment characteristics; spatial adjustments for exploiting local streamflow data; and uncertainty assessment. The results are maps of lower and upper confidence limits of low flow discharges for 21 000 sub-catchments in Austria.     

Groundwater flow modeling of periods with periglacial and glacial climate conditions for the safety assessment of the proposed high-level nuclear waste repository site at Forsmark,Sweden

The impact of periglacial and glacial climate conditions on groundwater flow in fractured crystalline rock is studied by means of groundwater flow modeling of the Forsmark site, which was recently proposed as a repository site for the disposal of spent high-level nuclear fuel in Sweden. The employed model uses a thermal-hydraulically coupled approach for permafrost modeling and discusses changes in groundwater flow implied by the climate conditions found over northern Europe at different times during the last glacial cycle (Weichselian glaciation). It is concluded that discharge of particles released at repository depth occurs very close to the ice-sheet margin in the absence of permafrost. If permafrost is included, the greater part discharges into taliks in the periglacial area. During a glacial cycle, hydraulic gradients at repository depth reach their maximum values when the ice-sheet margin passes over the site; at this time, also, the interface between fresh and saline waters is distorted the most. The combined effect of advances and retreats during several glaciations has not been studied in the present work; however, the results indicate that hydrochemical conditions at depth in the groundwater flow model are almost restored after a single event of ice-sheet advance and retreat.     

Influence of mining activity on the downstream sediments of scheelite mines in Currais Novos (NE Brazil)

The study area is one of the most important mineral provinces of the Rio Grande do Norte State (NE Brazil), which has been extensively exploited since 1940. This article presents a geochemical investigation of stream sediments taken in the drainage system between the Brejuí and Barra Verde scheelite mines, and the Gargalheiras municipal reservoir, in Acari city. In addition to the major elements, the trace elements V, Cr, Co, Ni, Cu, Zn, As, Rb, Sr, Zr, Mo, Sn, Ba, W were analyzed and compared to metal levels reported in the literature for the same area. The elements W, Mo, Cu, Sn and in part Zn are enriched in sediments of rivulets forming the drainage system close to the mining district. This is due to emission from uncovered mine waste dumps. Dispersion of elements is controlled by both, aeolian as well as fluvial transport. The concentration of Cu in stream sediments close to the mines reaches toxic levels. At the mouth of the drainage system to the reservoir, the elements W and Mo are still enriched in the stream sediments relative to the geogenic background by factors of 15 and 11, respectively. This indicates the probable influence of mining activity to the reservoir sediments, and mobilization of W and Mo in the reservoir water cannot be ruled out.     

Controls on the deep thermal field: implications from 3-D numerical simulations for the geothermal research site Groß Schönebeck

The deep thermal field in sedimentary basins can be affected by convection, conduction or both resulting from the structural inventory, physical properties of geological layers and physical processes taking place therein. For geothermal energy extraction, the controlling factors of the deep thermal field need to be understood to delineate favorable drill sites and exploitation compartments. We use geologically based 3-D finite element simulations to figure out the geologic controls on the thermal field of the geothermal research site Groß Schönebeck located in the E part of the North German Basin. Its target reservoir consists of Permian Rotliegend clastics that compose the lower part of a succession of Late Carboniferous to Cenozoic sediments, subdivided into several aquifers and aquicludes. The sedimentary succession includes a layer of mobilized Upper Permian Zechstein salt which plays a special role for the thermal field due to its high thermal conductivity. Furthermore, the salt is impermeable and due to its rheology decouples the fault systems in the suprasalt units from subsalt layers. Conductive and coupled fluid and heat transport simulations are carried out to assess the relative impact of different heat transfer mechanisms on the temperature distribution. The measured temperatures in 7 wells are used for model validation and show a better fit with models considering fluid and heat transport than with a purely conductive model. Our results suggest that advective and convective heat transport are important heat transfer processes in the suprasalt sediments. In contrast, thermal conduction mainly controls the subsalt layers. With a third simulation, we investigate the influence of a major permeable and of three impermeable faults dissecting the subsalt target reservoir and compare the results to the coupled model where no faults are integrated. The permeable fault may have a local, strong impact on the thermal, pressure and velocity fields whereas the impermeable faults only cause deviations of the pressure field.