Mining candidate causal relationships in movement patterns

In many applications, the environmental context for and drivers of movement patterns are just as important as the patterns themselves. This article adapts standard data mining techniques, combined with a foundational ontology of causation, with the objective of helping domain experts identify candidate causal relationships between movement patterns and their environmental context. In addition to data about movement and its dynamic environmental context, our approach requires as input definitions of the states and events of interest. The technique outputs causal and causal-like relationships of potential interest, along with associated measures of support and confidence. As a validation of our approach, the analysis is applied to real data about fish movement in the Murray River in Australia. The results demonstrate that the technique is capable of identifying statistically significant patterns of movement indicative of causal and causal-like relationships.     

Extended larval development compensates for sublethal effects of fish predation in a mayfly population (Rhithrogena semicolorata, Ephemeroptera)

Many predation experiments in streams are carried out in enclosures. Hence, the relevance of their results to predict population dynamics is often unclear due to the relatively small spatial and temporal scale of the experiments. To enhance the transferability of experimental results on the ecosystem scale the impact of fish predators on a prey population was observed in a reach scale approach over 2 years in a natural stream. A 400-m reach inhabited by the small benthivorous fishes gudgeon (Gobio gobio) and stone loach (Barbatula barbatula) was compared with a fishless reference reach.It was shown that fish predation may affect the population of the grazing mayfly Rhithrogena semicolorata on the ecosystem scale. Although the larvae grew slower in the fish reach than in the fishless reach, the adults reached the same size and fecundity because they emerged 2–3 weeks later. By this compensation, the prey species avoided a reduction of their individual fecundity. On the other hand, the extended exposure to the fish predators resulted in an enhanced mortality and a reduced density of adult mayflies. Thus, there was obviously a trade-off between maximising fecundity and minimising mortality from fish predation.The observed differences were almost certainly caused be fish predation and not by natural differences of the reaches. This was concluded from results gained after eliminating all benthivorous fish from the former fish reach.With the help of scenario analyses based on our empirical data and simple model assumptions we could demonstrate that compensating the potential loss in fecundity by extending development time led to higher average fitness of the prey population than emerging at an earlier fixed time to avoid additional predation losses. Therefore, we concluded that this strategy was adaptive in the presence of benthivorous fish.     

Oceanic and Hydrologic Influences on Flow and Water Properties in the St. Jones River Estuary,Delaware

Influences of tides, freshwater discharge, and winds on water properties in the St. Jones River estuary (USA), a Delaware National Estuarine Research Reserve, were investigated using multiyear records of sea level, salinity, and turbidity, supplemented by a current profiler time series in 2007. Results demonstrate that instantaneous properties fluctuate with semidiurnal tides and resonant overtides, whereas tidal mean variations are forced by seasonal freshwater inflow and offshore winds. Mean sea level and salinity are highest in summer and vary with seasonal water temperature and rainfall, whereas sea level variability and turbidity are highest in winter on account of storm effects. Salinity and discharge modeling suggest that much (43–65%) of the freshwater resident in the estuary is derived from non-point sources below the head of tide. This diffuse freshwater inflow produces a seaward surface slope and weak mean current, which temporarily reverses under the influence of storm–wind setup within Delaware Bay.     

Assessing food web dynamics and relative importance of organic matter sources for fish species in two Portuguese estuaries: a stable isotope approach

Stable carbon and nitrogen isotopes (δ13C, δ1?N) were used to analyse food web dynamics of two of the main estuaries of the Portuguese coast: Tejo and Mira. The ultimate sources of organic matter supporting production of some of the most abundant and commercially important fish species were determined; and seasonal, inter- and intra- estuarine differences in the trophic relations among producers and consumers were identified. Stable isotope analysis was performed in different producers, primary consumers (main prey items for fish) and fish species (Solea solea, Solea senegalensis, Pomatoschistus microps, Dicentrarchus labrax, Liza ramada, Diplodus vulgaris and Atherina presbyter) of two areas in each estuary, in July and October 2009. Model calculations showed that the main prey for the fish species in the Tejo estuary used mostly salt marsh-derived organic matter as nutritional sources, with no marked differences between the sampled months. Trophic levels of fish species from the same estuary differed at multiple scales: inter-species, seasonally and spatially (both between and within estuaries). Significant differences in isotopic composition of fish species were more pronounced spatially (between the two sampled areas in the estuary) than seasonally (between sampled months). Trophic relationships in both estuaries demonstrated that organic matter is transferred to higher trophic positions mainly through benthic pathways. This shows the flexibility of these species to share resources and to exploit temporary peaks in prey populations. The present results showed that extensive disturbance in intertidal habitats from both estuaries may potentially change the balance of organic matter in the base of these complex food webs.     

Phosphorus release from coastal Baltic Sea sediments as estimated from sediment profiles

We used the decline in total phosphorus (P) concentration with depth in sediment profiles from the North-western Baltic Proper coastal zone to calculate the site-specific amount of sediment P eventually to be released to the water column: The potentially mobile P. P fractionation revealed that iron bound P dominated the potentially mobile P at sites with oxic surface sediment layers. Organic P forms were also a major constituent of the potentially mobile P pool. We determined that 1–7 g P/m² were potentially mobile at our sites, and the turnover time of this P pool was considered short, i.e., less than a decade. To determine long-term average P fluxes to and from the surface sediment layer, we first multiplied the constant and relatively low P concentration in deeper sediment layers with the sediment accumulation rate to gain the P burial rate. Then the average total P concentration in settling matter was multiplied with the sediment accumulation rate to estimate the depositional P flux at each site. The difference between the depositional and burial rates represents the long-term average release rate of sediment P and varied between 1.0 and 2.7 g P/m² yr among our sites. These rates are at the same order of magnitude as values reported from other areas of the Baltic Sea, and constitute a major source of P to the water column.     

Arctic climate change in 21st century CMIP5 simulations with EC-Earth

The Arctic climate change is analyzed in an ensemble of future projection simulations performed with the global coupled climate model EC-Earth2.3. EC-Earth simulates the twentieth century Arctic climate relatively well but the Arctic is about 2 K too cold and the sea ice thickness and extent are overestimated. In the twenty-first century, the results show a continuation and strengthening of the Arctic trends observed over the recent decades, which leads to a dramatically changed Arctic climate, especially in the high emission scenario RCP8.5. The annually averaged Arctic mean near-surface temperature increases by 12 K in RCP8.5, with largest warming in the Barents Sea region. The warming is most pronounced in winter and autumn and in the lower atmosphere. The Arctic winter temperature inversion is reduced in all scenarios and disappears in RCP8.5. The Arctic becomes ice free in September in all RCP8.5 simulations after a rapid reduction event without recovery around year 2060. Taking into account the overestimation of ice in the twentieth century, our model results indicate a likely ice-free Arctic in September around 2040. Sea ice reductions are most pronounced in the Barents Sea in all RCPs, which lead to the most dramatic changes in this region. Here, surface heat fluxes are strongly enhanced and the cloudiness is substantially decreased. The meridional heat flux into the Arctic is reduced in the atmosphere but increases in the ocean. This oceanic increase is dominated by an enhanced heat flux into the Barents Sea, which strongly contributes to the large sea ice reduction and surface-air warming in this region. Increased precipitation and river runoff lead to more freshwater input into the Arctic Ocean. However, most of the additional freshwater is stored in the Arctic Ocean while the total Arctic freshwater export only slightly increases.     

Perceived deficiencies in the provision of climate and weather information for tourism: A New Zealand media analysis

Climate and weather are important for tourism and leisure as they impact on destination attractiveness and subsequent visitation. Through an archive analysis of media articles and a content analysis of Regional Tourism Organisation (RTO) websites, this paper explores perceived deficiencies in the currently available climate and weather information for tourists in New Zealand. While media reports focused on concern by many RTOs over the poor regional images generated by inaccurate and poorly presented climate and weather data, the RTO websites were found to contain limited climate and weather information. There is considerable potential for RTOs to improve in this respect.     

Synthetic radii and visibilities for pulsating red giants

We present synthetic radii and visibilities in the IR, based on hydrostatic and dynamic model atmospheres of carbon stars. The differences between these two sets of input models and to uniform disc models are discussed and compared to the expected capabilities of the VLTI. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.