A multi-dimensional assessment of urban vulnerability to climate change in Sub-Saharan Africa

In this paper, we develop and apply a multi-dimensional vulnerability assessment framework for understanding the impacts of climate change-induced hazards in Sub-Saharan African cities. The research was carried out within the European/African FP7 project CLimate change and Urban Vulnerability in Africa, which investigated climate change-induced risks, assessed vulnerability and proposed policy initiatives in five African cities. Dar es Salaam (Tanzania) was used as a main case with a particular focus on urban flooding. The multi-dimensional assessment covered the physical, institutional, attitudinal and asset factors influencing urban vulnerability. Multiple methods were applied to cover the full range of vulnerabilities and to identify potential response strategies, including: model-based forecasts, spatial analyses, document studies, interviews and stakeholder workshops. We demonstrate the potential of the approach to assessing several dimensions of vulnerability and illustrate the complexity of urban vulnerability at different scales: households (e.g., lacking assets); communities (e.g., situated in low-lying areas, lacking urban services and green areas); and entire cities (e.g., facing encroachment on green and flood-prone land). Scenario modeling suggests that vulnerability will continue to increase strongly due to the expected loss of agricultural land at the urban fringes and loss of green space within the city. However, weak institutional commitment and capacity limit the potential for strategic coordination and action. To better adapt to urban flooding and thereby reduce vulnerability and build resilience, we suggest working across dimensions and scales, integrating climate change issues in city-level plans and strategies and enabling local actions to initiate a ‘learning-by-doing’ process of adaptation.     

Evaluating the impact of visualization of wildfire hazard upon decision-making under uncertainty

The paper investigates whether the methods chosen for representing uncertain geographic information aid or impair decision-making in the context of wildfire hazard. Through a series of three human subject experiments, utilizing 180 subjects and employing increasingly difficult tasks, this research evaluates the effect of five different visualizations and a text-based representation on decision-making under uncertainty. Our quantitative experiments focus specifically on the task of decision-making under uncertainty, rather than the task of reading levels of uncertainty from the map. To guard against the potential for generosity and risk seeking in decision-making under uncertainty, the experimental design uses performance-based incentives. The experiments showed that the choice of representation makes little difference to performance in cases where subjects are allowed the time and focus to consider their decisions. However, with the increasing difficulty of time pressure, subjects performed best using a spectral color hue-based representation, rather than more carefully designed cartographic representations. Text-based and simplified boundary encodings were among the worst performers. The results have implications for the performance of decision-making under uncertainty using static maps, especially in the stressful environments surrounding an emergency.     

Same space – different perspectives: comparative analysis of geographic context through sketch maps and spatial video geonarratives

ABSTRACT

The importance of including a contextual underpinning to the spatial analysis of social data is gaining traction in the spatial science community. The challenge, though, is how to capture these data in a rigorous manner that is translational. One method that has shown promise in achieving this aim is the spatial video geonarrative (SVG), and in this paper we pose questions that advance the science of geonarratives through a case study of criminal ex-offenders. Eleven ex-offenders provided sketch maps and SVGs identifying high-crime areas of their community. Wordmapper software was used to map and classify the SVG content; its spatial filter extension was used for hot spot mapping with statistical significance tested using Monte Carlo simulations. Then, each subject’s sketch map and SVG were compared. Results reveal that SVGs consistently produce finer spatial-scale data and more locations of relevance than the sketch maps. SVGs also provide explanation of spatial-temporal processes and causal mechanisms linked to specific places, which are not evident in the sketch maps. SVG can be a rigorous translational method for collecting data on the geographic context of many phenomena. Therefore, this paper makes an important advance in understanding how environmentally immersive methods contribute to the understanding of geographic context.     

Development of fouling communities on vertical structures in the Baltic Sea

The pillars of the bridge connecting the Island of Öland with the Swedish mainland were rebuilt between 1990 and 2000. The renovation produced pristine vertical concrete substrates, which became submerged in known years and seasons. The fouling communities on the pillars were examined in 2001 to determine whether the community structure could be explained in terms of either orderly successional development or of seasonal variation in the settlement of benthic organisms. As well, the communities on the pillars were compared to communities on the vertical surfaces of boulders in the area. The results indicated that an annual species composition is the final stage in the succession on the observed, vertical constructions. The few perennial species add to the variation between pillars as they increase in biomass (Polysiphonia fucoides) or become out-competed (Balanus improvisus). Also, observed seasonal differences in the biomass of these perennial species indicated that the time of year free space becomes available might be an important determinant of the future structure of the community. Comparison between the pillar and boulder communities showed that the artificial structures were not surrogates for the natural hard substrate: pillar communities differed in that they lacked most perennial algal species and had a high biomass of B. improvisus.     

Rainfall-runoff forecasting methods,old and new

Here we review the main thrusts of rainfall-runoff modelling with an eye toward the advantageous use of the massive date sets being accumulated and the modern computers capable of dealing effectively with such sets.More than a tutorial, this study is aimed at providing a unifying structure for analyzing available techniques. The closing section draws attention to the existence of an alternative methodology.     

Impaired osmoregulation in the shrimp Palaemon adspersus exposed to crude oil extract

Palaemon adspersus is a hyper- and hypo-osmoregulating shallow-water shrimp. For a maximum period of 34 days P. adspersus were exposed to 20, 70, 100 and 200 ppb WSF of North Sea crude oil. The osmotic concentration of the haemolymph was measured by freezing point depression once a week. The ability to maintain hyper-osmolality was significantly decreased (p<0.05) after one, two and three weeks exposure to 200, 70 and 100 ppb, respectively. No effect was observed in 20 ppb. After an accidental exposure of shrimps to 24 h acute oil pollution, they were placed in pure sea water. The ability to maintain hyper-osmolality was reduced one week after the accidental oil exposure, but was regained within three weeks.     

Impact assessments and policy responses to sea-level rise in three US states: An exploration of human-dimension uncertainties

Uncertainties in the human dimensions of global change deeply affect the assessment and responses to climate change impacts such as sea-level rise (SLR). This paper explores the uncertainties in the assessment process and in state-level policy and management responses of three US states to SLR. The findings reveal important political, economic, managerial, and social factors that enable or constrain SLR responses; question disasters as policy windows; and uncover new policy opportunities in the history of state coastal policies. Results suggest that a more realistic, and maybe more useful picture of climate change impacts will emerge if assessments take more seriously the locally embedded realities and constraints that affect individual decision-makers’ and communal responses to climate change.