Assessing climate change vulnerability with group multi-criteria decision making approaches

This study developed an approach to assess the vulnerability to climate change and variability using various group multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) methods and identified the sources of uncertainty in assessments. MCDM methods include the weighted sum method, one of the most common MCDM methods, the technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS), fuzzy-based TOPSIS, TOPSIS in a group-decision environment, and TOPSIS combined with the voting methods (Borda count and Copeland’s methods). The approach was applied to a water-resource system in South Korea, and the assessment was performed at the province level by categorizing water resources into water supply and conservation, flood control and water-quality sectors according to their management objectives. Key indicators for each category were profiled with the Delphi surveys, a series of questionnaires interspersed with controlled opinion feedback. The sectoral vulnerability scores were further aggregated into one composite score for water-resource vulnerability. Rankings among different MCDM methods varied in different degrees, but noticeable differences in the rankings from the fuzzy- and non-fuzzy-based methods suggested that the uncertainty with crisp data, rather widely used, should be acknowledged in vulnerability assessment. Also rankings from the voting-based methods did not differ much from those from non-voting-based (i.e., average-based) methods. Vulnerability rankings varied significantly among the different sectors of the water-resource systems, highlighting the need to assess the vulnerability of water-resource systems according to objectives, even though one composite index is often used for simplicity.     

Laboratory studies on seismic and electrical properties of the moon

Laboratory measurements of seismic wave velocities and electrical properties of Apollo lunar samples and similar material of terrestrial origin are discussed in this paper. Measurements of the electrical properties show that in the frequency range above a few hundred Hz the outer region of the Moon may be considered as a low loss dielectric. This observation supports a longstanding speculation that dry, powdered rocks in which the dielectric loss tangent is frequency-independent over a wide range of frequency are present in the uppermost lunar surface layers. The surface layers of the Moon are likely to have an extremely low electrical conductivity. Thus future electromagnetic probing of the Moon to a few hundred kilometer depth is possible in the few kHz frequency range. Based on ultrasonic experiments with pressure as a variable, we next present the elastic constants and equations of state of lunar materials and characteristic dispersion of seismic wave velocities of the Moon. We find thatP andS wave velocities increase sharply within the first 30 km depth and then level off gradually. Combining this observation with lunar seismic and geophone data, we believe that the first 30 km of the Moon may be interpreted as a scattering region. If H₂O exists on the Moon, H₂O may occur at some shallow depth beneath the outermost surface layer in solid ice interlocking cracks and pores and mineral grains. The rocks in this permafrost state have relatively low seismic velocity and highQ. If permafrost does exist, we would expect a wide range of electrical conductivity and dielectric constant. Future electromagnetic probing of the Moon should yield very usefull information on the physical state of the lunar interior; when this electrical information is combined with the seismic information, we should learn much more about the internal constitution and the state of the Moon than is known today.     

Effect of thickness of planar nozzles on erosion depth of levee soils subjected to plunging water

In this study, the effect of the thickness of a planar jet on the erosion depth when the jet impinges on a surface composed of cohesive soil was analytically and numerically evaluated. The results showed that the erosion depth was practically independent of the nozzle thickness for erosion depths shallower than the potential core length (i.e. the region of the jet in which the central flow velocity is the same as the nozzle velocity). The relation between nozzle thickness and erosion depth was non-linear with continuously variable slope for erosion depths deeper than the potential core length. Finally, the relation was approximately linear when the erosion depth converged to the equilibrium erosion depth. The findings of this study indicate that direct and fast prediction of the erosion depth in the field is possible using the data from a small scale soil erosion test with similar flow velocities.     

Initiation of arc magmatism in an embryonic continental rifting zone of the southernmost part of Okinawa Trough

The Okinawa Trough is a young, intracontinental backarc basin that has formed behind the Ryukyu arc–trench system since late Miocene time. In the Southernmost Part of the Okinawa Trough (SPOT), a cluster of active submarine volcanoes delineates a volcanic belt, which is located only ∼100 km above the Wadati–Benioff zone. We report herein new major and trace element data for the SPOT volcanic rocks. These rocks show a compositional range from medium-K andesite to rhyolite. Their geochemical characteristics are similar to those of pre-backarc rifting volcanic rocks from the central Ryukyu arc, and different from those of backarc basin lavas from the Middle Okinawa Trough and the post-backarc rifting Ryukyu arc volcanics. Therefore, despite being topographically contiguous with the rest of the Trough, the SPOT that developed in the Quaternary is not a simple backarc basin but instead an embryonic rift zone in which early arc volcanism occurs as a result of the Ryukyu subduction.     

Dinosaur tracks from the Cretaceous of South Korea: Distribution, occurrences and paleobiological significance

Abstract   Abundant dinosaur fossils including dinosaur footprints, eggs and nests, teeth and bones have been found from the Cretaceous non-marine deposits of Korea. Among them, dinosaur tracks are the most distinctive, and some track sites are among the most famous in the world. Until now, 27 dinosaur track localities have been discovered from the Cretaceous strata in the Gyeongsang Basin and several small basins. Ornithopod tracks are most abundant at most Korean track sites, and most of them are identified as Caririchnium ; that is, large ornithopod footprints with wide hoof impressions. Most theropod tracks are found in Neungju Basin and they consist of various types of small or medium-sized bird-like footprints, and other large footprints. Sauropod tracks are also abundant in the Gyeongsang Basin. The sauropod tracks vary in size, shape, and pattern of trackway, and suggest that diverse sauropods existed in this area. These diverse tracks in South Korea suggest that various dinosaurs flourished at the margins of lakes distributed in the southern part of the Korean Peninsula during the Cretaceous.     

Local rainfall thresholds for forecasting landslide occurrence: Taipingshan landslide triggered by Typhoon Saola

This paper presents a case study of the Taipingshan landslide, which was triggered by Typhoon Saola in 2012. Taipingshan villa is one of the most famous scenic locations within the Taipingshan National Forest Recreation Area in northern Taiwan. Since the early 1990s, evidence of recent landslide activity appeared throughout the Taipingshan villa and included features such as tension cracks, ground settlement, and cracking in manmade structures. In response, a series of geological investigations and in-site/laboratory tests were conducted in 2010 to estimate slope stability and predict critical rainfall thresholds (event accumulated rainfall) for landslide activity. Results revealed that the critical rainfall threshold for the Taipingshan National Forest Recreation Area is 1765 mm. In 2012, that threshold was tested when Typhoon Saola brought tremendous rainfall to northern and eastern Taiwan and triggered activity along the main scarp of sliding mass B located near the History Exhibition Hall. According to in situ extensometer readings and on-site precipitation data, the extensometer was severed at an accumulated rainfall 1694 mm. Field monitoring data during the typhoon event are in good agreement with the rainfall threshold. These preliminary results suggest that the threshold may be useful for assessing the rainfall threshold of other landslides and a good reference for establishing early warning systems for landslides.     

Interrelationship between geochemical elements of sediment and groundwater at Samrak Park Delta of Nakdong River Basin in Korea: multivariate statistical analyses and artificial neural network approaches

This research was conducted at Samrak Park Delta of Nakdong River Basin in Busan Metropolitan City, Korea. The main objective of this study was to evaluate the interrelationship of geochemical elements in sediments and groundwater through multivariate statistical analyses and a multilayer perceptron artificial neural network model. The mean concentrations of chemical elements were Si (46%), Fe (16.9%), Al (15.7%), K (7.5%) and Ca (4.5%) in sediments, and Na (8650 mg/L), Mg (999 mg/L), Ca (432 mg/L), K (293 mg/L) and Cl (17,640 mg/L) in groundwater, respectively. The principal component analysis produced 3 kinds of factors with the variances of 63.37, 27.02 and 9.62%, respectively. It is suggested that the chemical components of sediments and groundwater were mainly originated from source rocks and seawater intrusion, with the minor impacts of irrigation and industry. Cluster analysis also showed that chemical elements were mainly controlled by the natural geogenic sources and seawater intrusion. Multilayer perceptron of artificial neural network (ANN) presented the good interrelationship between sediment and groundwater. The determination coefficients (R ²) between ANN predicted values and observed values in groundwater showed the high values of 0.61–0.97 except Mg, Mn and Sr. It is revealed that the chemical components of sediment and groundwater were derived from local geological origin and from the minor impact of anthropogenic sources. Multivariate analyses and ANN contributed to the identification of the mutual relationship between the geochemical elements of sediment and those of groundwater.     

Frequency‐domain acoustic‐elastic coupled waveform inversion using the Gauss‐Newton conjugate gradient method

We developed a frequency‐domain acoustic‐elastic coupled waveform inversion based on the Gauss‐Newton conjugate gradient method. Despite the use of a high‐performance computer system and a state‐of‐the‐art parallel computation algorithm, it remained computationally prohibitive to calculate the approximate Hessian explicitly for a large‐scale inverse problem. Therefore, we adopted the conjugate gradient least‐squares algorithm, which is frequently used for geophysical inverse problems, to implement the Gauss‐Newton method so that the approximate Hessian is calculated implicitly. Thus, there was no need to store the Hessian matrix. By simultaneously back‐propagating multi‐components consisting of the pressure and displacements, we could efficiently extract information on the subsurface structures. To verify our algorithm, we applied it to synthetic data sets generated from the Marmousi‐2 model and the modified SEG/EAGE salt model. We also extended our algorithm to the ocean‐bottom cable environment and verified it using ocean‐bottom cable data generated from the Marmousi‐2 model. With the assumption of a hard seafloor, we recovered both the P‐wave velocity of complicated subsurface structures as well as the S‐wave velocity. Although the inversion of the S‐wave velocity is not feasible for the high Poisson's ratios used to simulate a soft seafloor, several strategies exist to treat this problem. Our example using multi‐component data showed some promise in mitigating the soft seafloor effect. However, this issue still remains open.     

Selecting suitable sites for mountain ginseng (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Panax ginseng</Emphasis>) cultivation by using geographically weighted logistic regression

With the well-being trends to pursue a healthy life, mountain ginseng (Panax ginseng) is rising as one of the most profitable forest products in South Korea. This study was aimed at evaluating a new methodology for identifying suitable sites for mountain ginseng cultivation in the country. Forest vegetation data were collected from 46 sites and the spatial distribution of all sites was analyzed using GIS data for topographic position, landform, solar radiation, and topographic wetness. The physical and chemical properties of the soil samples, including moisture content, pH, organic matter, total nitrogen, exchangeable cations, available phosphorous, and soil texture, were analyzed. The cultivation suitability at each site was assessed based on the environmental conditions using logistic regression (LR) and geographically weighted logistic regression (GWLR) and the results of both methods were compared. The results show that the areas with northern aspect and higher levels of solar radiation, moisture content, total nitrogen, and sand ratio are more likely to be identified as suitable sites for ginseng cultivation. In contrast to the LR, the spatial modeling with the GWLR results in an increase in the model fitness and indicates that a significant portion of spatial autocorrelation in the data decreases. A higher value of the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve presents a better prediction accuracy of site suitability by the GWLR. The geographically weighted coefficient estimates of the model are non-stationary, and reveal that different site suitability is associated with the geographical location of the forest stands. The GWLR increases the accuracy of selecting suitable sites by considering the geographical variations in the characteristics of the cultivation sites.