引入调节变量的入境旅游对消费物价影响分析——基于1999~2014年香港季度数据的实证研究

引入调节变量,采用香港1999~2014年的季度统计数据建立一个新实证模型,利用Pearson相关性分析方法、计量经济学非平稳数据分析方法和Granger因果关系检验方法系统分析了入境旅游、经济增长和消费物价之间的关系。研究结果表明：① 入境旅游、经济增长和消费物价之间存在相关性和稳定的长期均衡关系;入境旅游对消费物价的带动性高于经济增长。② 入境旅游与消费物价、经济增长和消费物价、入境旅游和经济增长之间都存在单向Granger因果关系,入境旅游发展必然带动经济增长并影响消费物价。③ 入境旅游对消费物价产生影响的原因主要是入境游客规模扩大和结构单一;负面影响主要表现在影响当地底层民众生活品质、损害当地旅游形象和主客感情;对策主要为拓展入境旅游类型并使旅游发展红利惠及底层民众。     

高分辨率光学遥感卫星反射点源像点提取方法

像点提取精度是高分辨光学遥感卫星几何定标精度的关键因素之一。本文提出一种基于轻小型、自动化反射点源的像点提取方法,以参数化高斯模型拟合获取点源影像的像点坐标。在轨试验结果初步表明,反射点源法所提取的像点坐标的共线误差小于0.001像素,比例常量的相对标准偏差优于5‰,与质心法等常用方法提取的点源像点坐标相比较,精度优于0.05像素。反射点源不仅能够实现高精度的像点提取,而且还能够实现高分辨率光学遥感卫星的高精度几何定标与像质评价,对提高我国航天遥感立体测绘精度具有重要意义。     

30 m global impervious surface area dynamics and urban expansion pattern observed by Landsat satellites: From 1972 to 2019

Using more than three million Landsat satellite images, this research developed the first global impervious surface area (GISA) dataset from 1972 to 2019. Based on 120,777 independent and random reference sites from 270 cities all over the world, the omission error, commission error, and F-score of GISA are 5.16%, 0.82%, and 0.954, respectively. Compared to the existing global datasets, the merits of GISA include: (1) It provided the global ISA maps before the year of 1985, and showed the longest time span (1972–2019) and the highest accuracy (in terms of a large number of randomly selected and third-party validation sample sets); (2) it presented a new global ISA mapping method including a semi-automatic global sample collection, a locally adaptive classification strategy, and a spatio-temporal post-processing procedure; and (3) it extracted ISA from the whole global land area (not from an urban mask) and hence reduced the underestimation. Moreover, on the basis of GISA, the long time series global urban expansion pattern (GUEP) has been calculated for the first time, and the pattern of continents and representative countries were analyzed. The two new datasets (GISA and GUEP) produced in this study can contribute to further understanding on the human’s utilization and reformation to nature during the past half century, and can be freely download from http://irsip.whu.edu.cn/resources/dataweb.php.

     

Corrosion behavior of anodic oxidized TiO<Subscript>2</Subscript> film in seawater

TiO₂ films were formed on metallic titanium substrates by the anodic oxidation method in H₂SO₄ solution under the 80V D.C.. Phase component and microstructure were characterized by X-ray diffraction (XRD) and scanning electron microscopy (SEM). Water contact angles on titanium oxide film surface were measured under both dark and sunlight illumination conditions. Corrosion tests were carried out in seawater under different illumination conditions by electrochemistry impedance spectrum (EIS) and polarization curves. The result showed that the TiO₂ film prepared by the anodic oxidation method was anatase with a uniform structure and without obvious pores or cracks on its surface. The average water contact angle of the film was 116.4° in dark, in contrast to an angle of 42.7° under the UV illumination for 2 hours, which demonstrates good hydrophobic property. The anti-corrosion behavior of the TiO₂ film was declining with the extended immersion time. Under dark conditions, however, the hydrophobic TiO₂ film retarded the water infiltrating into the substrate. The impedance changed slowly and the corrosion current density was 2 orders of magnitude lower than that with the film illuminated by sunlight. All of those mentioned above indicate that the TiO₂ film possesses much better performance under dark condition, and it can be applied as an engineering material under dark seawater environment.     

From sequential to parallel growth of cities: Theory and evidence from Canada

This paper examines city growth patterns and the corresponding city size distribution evolution over long periods of time using a simple New Economic Geography(NEG) model and urban population data from Canada. The main findings are twofold. First, there is a transition from sequential to parallel growth of cities over long periods of time: city growth shows a sequential mode in the stage of rapid urbanization, i.e., the cities with the best development conditions will take the lead in growth, after which the cities with higher ranks will become the fastest-growing cities; in the late stage of urbanization, city growth converges according to Gibrat′s law, and exhibits a parallel growth pattern. Second, city size distribution is found to have persistent structural characteristics: the city system is self-organized into multiple discrete size groups; city growth shows club convergence characteristics, and the cities with similar development conditions eventually converge to a similar size. The results will not only enhance our understanding of urbanization process, but will also provide a timely and clear policy reference for promoting the healthy urbanization of developing countries.     

渤海湾曹妃甸深槽海区地形地貌特征及控制因素

通过研究浅层地震剖面、侧扫声纳和水深地形等数据资料,得出,曹妃甸沙岛的岬角地貌引起深槽海域局部潮流流速增大,甸头前沿深槽区以冲刷为主,最大水深达42 m,刷新了渤海湾最大水深记录,深槽部位的侵蚀量最大,深槽南坡冲刷幅度大于北坡,工程建设后期深槽区侵蚀冲刷程度有变小变缓趋势。早期深槽的形成是由于浅部断层受深部构造影响发生阶梯状错断沉陷,海底地层形成古凹槽,但深槽海底地层沉陷速率略大于沉积速率,使得深槽海域长期保持了渤海湾最大的水深环境。初步得出在历史时期曹妃甸深槽经过2万a以上长期存在,深槽的走向经历了南北向-北东向-北西向的转化过程。认为地质构造、古滦河三角洲演变、海洋水动力作用和人类活动等内外营力作用共同控制了曹妃甸海区地貌体系的发育与演化。达到了研究渤海湾曹妃甸深槽海区地形地貌控制因素和深槽的地质演化的目的,为曹妃甸港的规划、运营期维护和未来发展提供科学依据具有重要意义。     

腐蚀管道在内压和轴向压力影响下的弯曲破坏

运行在恶劣环境中的海底管道,往往受到内压、轴力和弯矩等复杂荷载的联合作用。腐蚀会导致管壁局部变薄,降低管道极限承载力。为保证管道安全高效运行,准确预测和分析复杂荷载作用下的塑性极限承载力和变形行为就显得尤为重要。考虑大应变和大变形、应力强化和材料非线性,运用数值仿真软件建立腐蚀缺陷管道的三维实体有限元模型,在全尺寸管道破坏试验验证的基础上,对腐蚀管道在内压、轴向压力和弯矩相互作用下的失效模式和极限弯矩承载力进行了相关研究,并进行了腐蚀缺陷几何参数的敏感性分析。研究结果表明:初始内压和初始轴向压力会显著降低腐蚀管道的极限弯矩承载力,并且影响最终的失效模式;在腐蚀缺陷几何尺寸参数中,腐蚀宽度比腐蚀深度和腐蚀长度的影响更大。     

目标样本粒度判据在海湾环境演变研究中的运用——以福建前湖湾为例

高密度采集福建前湖湾海岸剖面133个泥沙样品做粒度分析,其频率曲线显示多种粒度分布特征,预示多种沉积环境的变化。采集研究剖面周边海滩、河口浅滩、河口、滨海沼泽和海岸沙丘等已知环境的样品作为目标样本。将目标样本沉积参数平均粒径(Mz)、标准偏差(σ)、峰态(Kg)设为判别参数,利用Excel计算海岸剖面样品与目标样本参数的距离,筛选最小距离样品,归为已知目标样本的同类。据此,分析了海岸剖面蕴含的6个沉积环境变化阶段。利用剖面底部淤泥测年14C=(328 15±170)a BP,和剖面上部泥炭测年14C=(24 130±100)a BP,了解这一变化发生的年代。自(32 815±170)a BP以来,前湖湾经历了河口浅滩-河口、沙丘-河口-滨海沼泽-海滩-沙丘等海岸环境演变过程。     

初始几何缺陷对管道极限承载力影响研究

初始几何缺陷被认为是影响管道极限承载力和稳定性的重要因素,但是大部分的管道力学特性研究都没有考虑初始缺陷的影响。基于管道几何尺寸测量机,获得管道的壁厚和直径沿轴向以及环向的分布规律。据此建立了四个三维实体有限元模型,分别为完好管道模型、只考虑直径缺陷的管道模型、只考虑壁厚缺陷的管道模型以及考虑所有缺陷的管道模型。分析了初始缺陷对管道的极限内压承载力、极限轴力承载力和极限弯矩承载力的影响。结果表明,直径缺陷对管道的极限内压承载力影响较大;壁厚缺陷对管道在复杂荷载作用下的极限弯矩承载力影响较大。     

长江口拦门沙地区的泥沙运动规律

依据１９８８年７月和１２月水文观测资料，通过流，盐，沙的综合分析，认识到长江口拦门沙地区的泥沙运动有与河口其他地区不同的特点，泥沙输移在水平面上和垂直面上存在着多种循环，潮流和盐水截留大量泥沙积聚的拦门沙地区，河口在盐淡水交锋地带，除了涨，落急时段外，发现在转流时期泥沙也可能产生再悬浮，从而形成一个潮周期中出现３次或４次再悬浮的特殊规律。