Probabilistic Assessment of Earthquake Hazard in Gujarat and Adjoining Region of India

The Gujarat and adjoining region falls under all four seismic zones V, IV, III and II of the seismic zoning map of India, and is one of the most seismically prone intracontinental regions of the world. It has experienced two large earthquakes of magnitude M _w 7.8 and 7.7 in 1819 and 2001, respectively and several moderate earthquakes during the past two centuries. In the present study, the probability of occurrence of earthquakes of M ≥ 5.0 has been estimated during a specified time interval for different elapsed times on the basis of observed time intervals between earthquakes using three stochastic models namely, Weibull, Gamma and Lognormal. A complete earthquake catalogue has been used covering the time interval of 1819 to 2006. The whole region has been divided into three major seismic regions (Saurashtra, Mainland Gujarat and Kachchh) on the basis of seismotectonics and geomorphology of the region. The earthquake hazard parameters have been estimated using the method of maximum likelihood. The logarithmic of likelihood function (ln L) is estimated and used to test the suitability of models in three different regions. It was found that the Weibull model fits well with the actual data in Saurashtra and Kachchh regions, whereas Lognormal model fits well in Mainland Gujarat. The mean intervals of occurrence of earthquakes are estimated as 40.455, 20.249 and 13.338 years in the Saurashtra, Mainland Gujarat and Kachchh region, respectively. The estimated cumulative probability (probability that the next earthquake will occur at a time later than some specific time from the last earthquake) for the earthquakes of M ≥ 5.0 reaches 0.9 after about 64 years from the last earthquake (1993) in Saurashtra, about 49 years from the last earthquake (1969) in Mainland Gujarat and about 29 years from the last earthquake (2006) in the Kachchh region. The conditional probability (probability that the next earthquake will occur during some specific time interval after a certain elapsed time from last earthquake) is also estimated and it reaches about 0.8 to 0.9 during the time interval of about 57 to 66 years from the last earthquake (1993) in Saurashtra region, 31 to 51 years from the last earthquake (1969) in Mainland Gujarat and about 21 to 28 years from the last earthquake (2006) in Kachchh region.     

Intensity distribution of M 4.9 Haryana–Delhi border earthquake

In this study, we have prepared an intensity map based on macroseismic survey and all the available information from print and electronic media of damage and other effects due to March 05, 2012, M 4.9 Bahadurgarh (Haryana–Delhi border) earthquake and interpreted them to obtain modified Mercalli intensities (MMI) at over 62 locations surrounding the Haryana and Delhi. We have cross-checked the damage information from print and electronic media in the field at 25 sites within 110 km surrounding the epicenter for validation. Based on the questionnaire which is used in macroseismic survey and personal judgment, intensities were assigned accordingly as per physical survey at 25 sites and for rest based on media reporting. A maximum intensity of VI was assigned to this seismic event. Isoseismals of V and VI have been fully covered in the field observations. Beside this, some of the points have also been covered for isoseismal IV and isoseismal III and rest are based on media report only. The intensity map reveals several interesting features. Elliptically elongated shape of intensity map shows that most of the slightly damaged areas are concentrated toward the northwestern side of the epicenter having intensity V which may be due to directivity or site effects. A regression relation has also been derived between intensity and epicentral distance. The derived attenuation relation will be useful for assessing damage of a potential future earthquake (earthquake scenario–based planning purposes) for the Delhi NCR region.     

Flow under standing waves: Part 1. Shear stress distribution,energy flux and steady streaming

The conditions for energy flux, momentum flux and the resulting streaming velocity are analysed for standing waves formed in front of a fully reflecting wall. The exchange of energy between the outer wave motion and the near bed oscillatory boundary layer is considered, determining the horizontal energy flux inside and outside the boundary layer. The momentum balance, the mean shear stress and the resulting time averaged streaming velocities are determined. For a laminar bed boundary layer the analysis of the wave drift gives results similar to the original work of Longuet–Higgins from 1953. The work is extended to turbulent bed boundary layers by application of a numerical model. The similarities and differences between laminar and turbulent flow conditions are discussed, and quantitative results for the magnitude of the mean shear stress and drift velocity are presented. Full two-dimensional simulations of standing waves have also been made by application of a general purpose Navier–Stokes solver. The results agree well with those obtained by the boundary layer analysis. Wave reflection from a plane sloping wall is also investigated by using the same numerical model and by physical laboratory experiments. The phase shift of the reflected wave train is compared with theoretical and empirical models.