The ice sheet dynamics around Dakshin Gangotri glacier,Schirmacher Oasis,East Antarctica vis-à-vis topography and meteorological parameters

Recession of the snout of Dakshin Gangotri glacier in the western part of Schirmacher Oasis, East Antarctica has been recorded over two decades. However, the rate of retreat is not uniform and varies at different locations. The ice wall forming the western flank of the glacier has shown an average retreat of 17.07 m between 2001 and 2009 while the snout had gone back by 6.94 m (average) during the same period. Before 2001, the snout had shown a complete recession of 3.13 m (average). The snout occupies valley area receiving less amount of solar radiation as compared to the western wall, which is a vertical cliff receiving maximum amount of solar radiation. The notable difference in the rate of recession in different parts of the Dakshin Gangotri glacier overriding Schirmacher Oasis can be attributed to combined effect of natural factors, including meteorological parameters, ice sheet dynamics and geomorphology of that area.     

Forecasting of cyclone Viyaru and Phailin by NWP-based cyclone prediction system (CPS) of IMD – an evaluation

An objective NWP-based cyclone prediction system (CPS) was implemented for the operational cyclone forecasting work over the Indian seas. The method comprises of five forecast components, namely (a) Cyclone Genesis Potential Parameter (GPP), (b) Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) technique for cyclone track prediction, (c) cyclone intensity prediction, (d) rapid intensification, and (e) predicting decaying intensity after the landfall. GPP is derived based on dynamical and thermodynamical parameters from the model output of IMD operational Global Forecast System. The MME technique for the cyclone track prediction is based on multiple linear regression technique. The predictor selected for the MME are forecast latitude and longitude positions of cyclone at 12-hr intervals up to 120 hours forecasts from five NWP models namely, IMD-GFS, IMD-WRF, NCEP-GFS, UKMO, and JMA. A statistical cyclone intensity prediction (SCIP) model for predicting 12 hourly cyclone intensity (up to 72 hours) is developed applying multiple linear regression technique. Various dynamical and thermodynamical parameters as predictors are derived from the model outputs of IMD operational Global Forecast System and these parameters are also used for the prediction of rapid intensification. For forecast of inland wind after the landfall of a cyclone, an empirical technique is developed. This paper briefly describes the forecast system CPS and evaluates the performance skill for two recent cyclones Viyaru (non-intensifying) and Phailin (rapid intensifying), converse in nature in terms of track and intensity formed over Bay of Bengal in 2013. The evaluation of performance shows that the GPP analysis at early stages of development of a low pressure system indicated the potential of the system for further intensification. The 12-hourly track forecast by MME, intensity forecast by SCIP model and rapid intensification forecasts are found to be consistent and very useful to the operational forecasters. The error statistics of the decay model shows that the model was able to predict the decaying intensity after landfall with reasonable accuracy. The performance statistics demonstrates the potential of the system for improving operational cyclone forecast service over the Indian seas.     

Origin of fault domains and fault-domain boundaries (transfer zones and accommodation zones) in extensional provinces: Result of random nucleation and self-organized fault growth

In many extensional provinces, large normal faults dip in the same direction forming fault domains. Features variously named transfer faults, transfer zones, and accommodation zones (hereafter non-genetically referred to as fault-domain boundaries) separate adjacent fault domains. Experimental modeling of distributed extension provides insights on the origin, geometry, and evolution of these fault domains and fault-domain boundaries. In our scaled models, a homogeneous layer of wet clay or dry sand overlies a latex sheet that is stretched orthogonally or obliquely between two rigid sheets. Fault domains and fault-domain boundaries develop in all models in both map view and cross-section. The number, size, and arrangement of fault domains as well as the number and orientation of fault-domain boundaries are variable, even for models with identical boundary conditions. The fault-domain boundaries in our models differ profoundly from those in many published conceptual models of transfer/accommodation zones. In our models, fault-domain boundaries are broad zones of deformation (not discrete strike-slip or oblique-slip faults), their orientations are not systematically related to the extension direction, and they can form spontaneously without any prescribed pre-existing zones of weakness. We propose that fault domains develop because early-formed faults perturb the stress field, causing new nearby faults to dip in the same direction (self-organized growth). As extension continues, faults from adjacent fault domains propagate toward each another. Because opposite-dipping faults interfere with one another in the zone of overlap, the faults stop propagating. In this case, the geometry of the domain boundaries depends on the spatial arrangement of the earliest formed faults, a result of the random distribution of the largest flaws at which the faults nucleate.     

Cloud — Aerosol interaction during lightning activity over land and ocean: Precipitation pattern assessment

The present study attempts to identify the land - ocean contrast in cloud - aerosol relation during lightning and non-lightning days and its effect on subsequent precipitation pattern. The thermal hypothesis in view of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) behind the land - ocean contrast is observed to be insignificant in the present study region. The result shows that the lightning activities are significantly and positively correlated with aerosols over both land and ocean in case of low aerosol loading whereas for high aerosol loading the correlation is significant but, only over land. The study attempts to comprehend the mechanism through which the aerosol and lightning interact using the concept of aerosol indirect effect that includes the study of cloud effective radius, cloud fraction and precipitation rate. The result shows that the increase in lightning activity over ocean might have been caused due to the first aerosol indirect effect, while over land the aerosol indirect effect might have been suppressed due to lightning. Thus, depending on the region and relation between cloud parameters it is observed that the precipitation rate decreases (increases) over ocean during lightning (non-lightning) days. On the other hand during non-lightning days, the precipitation rate decreases over land.     

Wind energy estimates by use of a diagnostic model

A diagnostic model is a relatively simple and practical tool for modeling the wind flow of the boundary layer in complex terrain. The model begins with a wind analysis based on available surface wind reports and geostrophic winds (computed from pressure data). The height of the boundary layer top (upper surface of the computational domain) is prescribed to fit local conditions. Using the continuity equation in terrain-following coordinates, the winds at mesh points are adjusted to produce nondivergence while maintaining the original vertical component of vorticity. The method of computing the nondivergent winds uses direct alterations. This method may be useful for other modeling purposes and will be described. Data for a long period (usually a year) are analyzed to obtain eigenvectors and the associated time series of their coefficients at each observation time. The model is run only for the five or six eigenvectors that explain most of the variance. The wind field at any particular time is reconstructed from the eigenvector solutions and their appropriate coefficients. Comparisons of model results with measured winds at sites representing different types of terrain will be shown. The accuracy and economy of the model make it a useful tool for estimating wind energy and also for giving wind fields for low-level diffusion models.     

A copula-based multivariate analysis of Canadian RCM projected changes to flood characteristics for northeastern Canada

In the present work, climate change impacts on three spring (March–June) flood characteristics, i.e. peak, volume and duration, for 21 northeast Canadian basins are evaluated, based on Canadian regional climate model (CRCM) simulations. Conventional univariate frequency analysis for each flood characteristic and copula based bivariate frequency analysis for mutually correlated pairs of flood characteristics (i.e. peak–volume, peak–duration and volume–duration) are carried out. While univariate analysis is focused on return levels of selected return periods (5-, 20- and 50-year), the bivariate analysis is focused on the joint occurrence probabilities P1 and P2 of the three pairs of flood characteristics, where P1 is the probability of any one characteristic in a pair exceeding its threshold and P2 is the probability of both characteristics in a pair exceeding their respective thresholds at the same time. The performance of CRCM is assessed by comparing ERA40 (the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts 40-year reanalysis) driven CRCM simulated flood statistics and univariate and bivariate frequency analysis results for the current 1970–1999 period with those observed at selected 16 gauging stations for the same time period. The Generalized Extreme Value distribution is selected as the marginal distribution for flood characteristics and the Clayton copula for developing bivariate distribution functions. The CRCM performs well in simulating mean, standard deviation, and 5-, 20- and 50-year return levels of flood characteristics. The joint occurrence probabilities are also simulated well by the CRCM. A five-member ensemble of the CRCM simulated streamflow for the current (1970–1999) and future (2041–2070) periods, driven by five different members of a Canadian Global Climate Model ensemble, are used in the assessment of projected changes, where future simulations correspond to A2 scenario. The results of projected changes, in general, indicate increases in the marginal values, i.e. return levels of flood characteristics, and the joint occurrence probabilities P1 and P2. It is found that the future marginal values of flood characteristics and P1 and P2 values corresponding to longer return periods will be affected more by anthropogenic climate change than those corresponding to shorter return periods but the former ones are subjected to higher uncertainties.     

Spatial characteristics of landslides triggered by the 2015 M<Subscript>w</Subscript> 7.8 (Gorkha) and M<Subscript>w</Subscript> 7.3 (Dolakha) earthquakes in Nepal

High magnitude earthquakes trigger numerous landslides and their occurrences are mainly controlled by terrain parameters. We created an inventory of 15,551 landslides with a total area of 90.2 km² triggered by the 2015 M_w 7.8 (Gorkha) and M_w 7.3 (Dolakha) earthquakes in Nepal, through interpretation of very high resolution satellite images (e.g. WorldView, Pleiades, Cartosat-1 and 2, Resourcesat-2). Our spatial analysis of landslide occurrences with ground acceleration, slope, lithology and surface defomation indicated ubiquitous control of steep slope on landslides with ground acceleration as the trigger. Spatial distribution of landslides shows increasing frequency away from the Gorkha earthquake epicentre up to 130 km towards east, dropping sharply thereafter, which is an abnormal phenomenon of coseismic landslides. Landslides are laterally concentrated in three zones which matches well with the seismic rupture evolution of Gorkha earthquake, as reported through teleseismic measurements.     

Deciphering the Holocene evolution of the St. Lawrence River drainage system using luminescence and radiocarbon dating

The St. Lawrence River is an important drainage route for eastern North American fresh waters. Following Late Pleistocene deglaciation, several fluctuations in base level have fine-tuned the evolution of the ancestral St. Lawrence. These fluctuations are hereby dated using K-feldspar infrared stimulated luminescence (IRSL) and radiocarbon. The accuracy of the individual IRSL dates was achieved by properly correcting for thermal transfer and anomalous fading. For each site investigated, widely used statistical approaches in equivalent dose data have been used to establish which age model, the central or the minimum model, would be appropriate to define the “true” depositional age. The chronology of the succession of regional lake levels is based on careful mapping and dating of the regional dunes, beaches and deltaic sediments. A relative time-space evolution history could be drawn, from ca. 8000 years BP to the present time period. Three major fluctuations are documented for the middle to late Holocene. An unexpected finding, from the ages cluster diagram, is that there have been times in the recent past (ca. 1000–4000 years BP) when the river level was lower or at the same elevation as today. The potential for K-feldspar IRSL to accurately date the Holocene lacustrine evolution is critical in the St. Lawrence River modern drainage basin, an environment that might be negatively impacted over the next century.     

A database of archived drilling records of the drill cuttings piles at the North West Hutton oil platform

Drill cuttings piles are found underneath several hundred oil platforms in the North Sea, and are contaminated with hydrocarbons and chemical products. This study characterised the environmental risk posed by the cuttings pile at the North West Hutton (NWH) oil platform. Data on the drilling fluids and chemical products used over the platform's drilling history were transferred from archived well reports into a custom database, to which were added toxicological and safety data. Although the database contained many gaps, it established that only seven chemical products used at NWH were not in the lowest category of the Offshore Chemicals Notification Scheme, and were used in only small quantities. The study therefore supports the view that the main environmental risk posed by cuttings piles comes from hydrocarbon contamination. The (dated) well records could help future core sampling to be targeted at specific locations in the cuttings piles. Data from many platforms could also be pooled to determine generic 'discharge profiles.' Future study would benefit from the existence, in the public domain, of a standardised, 'legacy' database of chemical products.