An observational perspective on tropical cyclone activity over Indian seas in a warming environment

The genesis of tropical cyclones (TCs) over Indian seas comprising of Bay of Bengal (BoB) and Arabian Sea (AS) is highly seasonal with primary maximum in postmonsoon season (mid-September to December) and secondary maximum during premonsoon season (April and May). The present study is focused to demonstrate changes in genesis and intensity of TCs over Indian seas in warming environment. For this purpose, observational data of TCs, obtained from the India Meteorological Department (IMD), are analyzed. The sea surface temperature (SST), surface wind speed, and potential evaporation factor (PEF), obtained from the International Comprehensive Ocean Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS), are also analyzed to examine the possible linkage with variations in TC activities over Indian seas. The study period has been divided into two epochs: past cooling period (PCP, period up to 1950) and current warming period (CWP, period after 1950) based on SST anomaly (became positive from 1950) over the BoB and AS. The study reveals that the number of severe cyclones (SCS) increases significantly (statistically significant at 99% confidence level) by about 41% during CWP though no such significant change is observed in cyclonic disturbances (CDs) and cyclones (CS) over Indian seas. It is also observed that the rate of dissipation of CS and SCS over Indian seas has been decreasing considerably by about 63 and 71%, respectively, during CWP. The analysis shows that the BoB contributes about 75% in each category of TCs and remaining 25% by the AS towards total of Indian seas. A detailed examination on genesis and intensity of TC over both the basins and the seasons illustrates that significant enhancement of SCS by about 65% during CWP is confined to the postmonsoon season of the BoB. Further, the BoB is sub-divided into northern, central, and southern sectors and the AS into western and eastern sectors based on genesis of TCs and SST gradient. Results show that in postmonsoon season during CWP, the number of SCS increases significantly by about 71% in southern BoB and 300% over western AS.     

Impacts of future climate on the hydrology of a northern headwaters basin and its implications for a downstream deltaic ecosystem

Anthropogenic and climatic-induced changes to flow regimes pose significant risks to river systems. Northern rivers and their deltas are particularly vulnerable due to the disproportionate warming of the Northern Hemisphere compared with the Southern Hemisphere. Of special interest is the Peace–Athabasca Delta (PAD) in western Canada, a productive deltaic lake and wetland ecosystem, which has been recognized as a Ramsar site. Both climate- and regulation-induced changes to the hydrological regime of the Peace River have raised concerns over the delta's ecological health. With the damming of the headwaters, the role of downstream unregulated tributaries has become more important in maintaining, to a certain degree, a natural flow regime, particularly during open-water conditions. However, their flow contributions to the mainstem river under future climatic conditions remain largely uncertain. In this study, we first evaluated the ability of a land-surface hydrological model to simulate hydro-ecological relevant indicators, highlighting the model's strengths and weaknesses. Then, we investigated the streamflow conditions in the Smoky River, the largest unregulated tributary of the Peace River, in the 2071–2100 versus the 1981–2010 periods. Our modelling results revealed significant changes in the hydrological regime of the Smoky River, such as increased discharge in winter (+190%) and spring (+130%) but reduced summer flows (−33%) in the 2071–2100 period compared with the baseline period, which will have implications for the sustainability of the downstream PAD. In particular, the projected reductions in 30-day and 90-day maximum flows in the Smoky River will affect open-water flooding, which is important in maintaining lake levels and connectivity to perimeter delta wetlands in the Peace sector of the PAD. The evaluation of breakup and freeze-up flows for the 2071–2100 period showed mixed implications for the ice-jam flooding, which is essential for recharging high-elevation deltaic basins. Thus, despite projected increase in annual and spring runoff in the 2071–2100 period from the Smoky sub-basin, the sustainability of the PAD still remains uncertain.     

Stratigraphy and paleobathymetric interpretation of the Cretaceous Karai shale formation of Uttatur Group, TamilNadu, India

The Karai shale Formation of the Uttatur Group is exposed in a bad land area at the western margin of the Cauvery Basin. This shale has been investigated based on foraminiferal fauna and clay minerals. The foraminiferal assemblages obtained contain predominantly calcareous benthic foraminifera, rare planktic and arenaceous foraminifera. The planktic foraminiferal index taxa Planomalina buxtorfi, Rotalipora reicheli, Praeglobotruncana stephani, and Hedbergella portsdownensis suggest the late Albian to middle Turonian age. The benthic assemblage dominated by Lenticulina, Gavelinella, Osangularia and Quadrimorphina, suggests an outer neritic (100–200 m) environment. The clay mineral content dominated by kaolinite-illite-montmorillonite indicates that the Karai shale was formed from weathering of igneous rocks.     

Perturbation study of climate change impacts in a snow‐fed river basin

A physically based distributed hydrological model developed at the University of Yamanashi based on block‐wise use of TOPMODEL and the Muskingum–Cunge method (YHyM/BTOPMC), integrated with a simple degree‐day–based snow accumulation/melt sub‐model, was applied to evaluate hydrological responses under changing climatic conditions in the snow‐fed Kali Gandaki River Basin (KGRB) in Western Nepal. Rainy season precipitation (June to September) in the basin takes up about 80% of the annual precipitation, and dry season runoff is largely contributed by snowmelt. Climate change is likely to increase the probability of extreme events and problems related to water availability. Therefore, the study aimed to simulate runoff pattern under changing climatic conditions, which will be helpful in the management of water resources in the basin. Public domain global data were widely used in this study. The model was calibrated and validated with an acceptable degree of accuracy. The results predicted that the annual average discharge will increase by 2.4%, 3.7%, and 5.7% when temperature increases by 1, 2, and 3 °C compared with the reference scenario. Similarly, maximum, minimum, and seasonal discharges in the monsoon and pre‐monsoon seasons will also increase with rising temperature. Snowmelt runoff is found sensitive to temperature changes in the KGRB. Increasing temperature will cause a faster snowmelt, but precipitation will increase the snowpack and also shed a positive effect on the total annual and monsoonal discharge. For the combined scenarios of increasing temperature and precipitation, the annual average discharge will increase. In contrast, discharge during the increasing temperature and decreasing precipitation will tend to decrease. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Full-sky correlations of peaks in the microwave background

We compute precise predictions for the two-point correlation function of local maxima (or minima) in the temperature of the microwave background, under the assumption that it is a random Gaussian field. For a given power spectrum and peak threshold there are no adjustable parameters, and since this analysis does not make the small-angle approximation of Heavens & Sheth, it is essentially complete. We find oscillatory features which are absent in the temperature autocorrelation function, and we also find that the small-angle approximation to the peak–peak correlation function is accurate to better than 0.01 on all scales. These high-precision predictions can form the basis of a sensitive test of the Gaussian hypothesis with upcoming all-sky microwave background experiments MAP and Planck , affording a thorough test of the inflationary theory of the early Universe. To illustrate the effectiveness of the technique, we apply it to simulated maps of the microwave sky arising from the cosmic string model of structure formation, and compare the two-point correlation function of peaks with the bispectrum as a non-Gaussian discriminant. We also show how peak statistics can be a valuable tool in assessing and statistically removing contamination of the map by foreground point sources.     

Observational perspective of SST changes during life cycle of tropical cyclones over Bay of Bengal

Natural Hazards - Sea surface temperature (SST) plays a significant role in tropical cyclone (TC) formation and intensity evolution, while at the same time, TC induces SST changes during its life...     

Chasing Chinese Caterpillar Fungus (Ophiocordyceps sinensis) Harvesters in the Himalayas: Harvesting Practice and Its Conservation Implications in Western Nepal

The Chinese caterpillar fungus is famous for its high market value, unusual life history, and significant medicinal uses. It is harvested by very poor communities and sold for an extraordinarily high price. Most of the studies on this species are focused on therapeutic uses, chemical analyses, ecology, and trade. However, harvesting techniques and intensity of the harvests remain undocumented. We document harvesting techniques, trends of harvest, and perceptions of the Chinese caterpillar fungus harvesters in Dolpa, Nepal, based on surveys, focus-group discussions, and direct observations. Along with increasing market value, intensity of the harvest has been increasing. The Chinese caterpillar fungus harvest has now become the second most important livelihood strategy for the local communities, after agriculture. Reported per-capita harvest based on the first day of collection has declined over the last 4 years, apparently because of the decline in the stock and the increasing number of harvesters.