Assessing macroeconomic recovery after a natural hazard based on ARIMA—a case study of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake in China

In this research the autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA) was adopted to estimate GDP growth for assessing macroeconomic recovery from a natural hazard. ARIMA is a powerful tool for predicting future macroeconomic situations based on macroeconomic data and trends before a disaster. This research examined the economic recovery of severely affected counties 6 years after the Wenchuan Earthquake by comparing the simulated regional GDP values from 2008 to 2014 with actual regional GDP data following the disaster. A macroeconomic recovery ratio model was built to assess economic resilience of the affected counties. Although the GDP of the 10 most severely affected counties grew rapidly after the earthquake, in only one county—Pengzhou City—it recovered to the pre-disaster level under a no hazard scenario. The gaps in economic recovery between the severely affected counties were significant. Areas with competitive industries and locational advantage exhibited the highest rates of recovery. Therefore, industrial structure and relative location of the affected areas to traffic nodes and economic centers should be considered in pre-disaster assistance decisions and development plans in the future.     

山东省海陆产业联动发展探讨

利用灰色关联分析方法,结合新的海洋经济核算标准,深入分析了山东省海陆产业关联程度。结果表明,山东省地区经济与陆地产业关联度高于海洋产业;海洋第一产业与陆地经济、陆地第一产业、陆地第三产业联系较弱,海洋第三产业与陆地第二产业联系较弱;山东省陆地经济与海洋科研教育管理服务业联系较弱。提出要以海岸带为纽带优化海陆产业联动发展布局,加强海陆产业内部的产业链对接,分阶段有重点地推进海陆产业联动发展。     

渤海湾盆地大歧口凹陷新生代构造演化与盆地原型

大歧口凹陷位于渤海湾盆地黄骅坳陷中北部,是中新生代叠合盆地中新生界沉积最厚的凹陷。本文基于大量二维、三维地震剖面和钻井资料,从凹陷主控断裂活动性、沉积沉降中心分布和构造格架等方面,侧重对大歧口凹陷新生代构造演化过程和原型盆地类型进行研究。认为:1)大歧口凹陷构造单元有4级,凹陷具有"东西分带、南北分块"的平面构造格局和北断南超箕状断陷的剖面结构。2)凹陷内断裂有4级,主要断裂的规模、活动期次和断裂活动具有演化的阶段性和空间的迁移性,典型构造带活动性具有由北往南迁移的特点。3)新生代期间整个大歧口凹陷的沉积沉降中心均在东部海域的歧口主凹内,但整体具有往南迁移的趋势。4)凹陷经历了拓展裂谷、拉分断陷、箕状断陷和碟状坳陷4个构造演化阶段,断陷阶段在整个构造演化时期意义重大,且具有走滑拉分特点。故认为大歧口凹陷原型盆地是一种"板内拉分盆地"。     

基于百度迁徙数据的中国三大城市群网络结构中心性和对称性分析北大核心CSCD

本文首先提出了探测城市网络中心性和对称性特征的方法框架,具体包括3个“S”的维度,即强度、对称性和结构。然后分别对京津冀、长三角和珠三角城市群的人流迁徙网络进行了实证分析。结果表明:(1)三大城市群内的城市节点具有明显的层级特征,且人流迁徙呈现较大的对称性结构;(2)京津冀、长三角和珠三角分别呈现包围式、“>”形及“一核两翼”的核心-边缘结构;(3)京津冀呈典型的单中心结构,而长三角和珠三角则呈明显的多中心结构。最后结合上述分析结果,对于三大城市群的城市定位、区域规划给出了建议,旨在促进区域的协调发展和一体化集成。     

农田蒸散双层模型及其在干旱遥感监测中的应用

该文建立了在部分植被条件下估算农田蒸散的双层模型，利用此模型和ＮＯＡＡ－ＡＶＨＲＲ数据对黄淮海平原春季旱情进行了评估，并做出了干旱及蒸散分布图。对双层模型和单层模型的估算结果进行了比较，结果表明在部分植被条件下双层模型估算的精度要高。     

The scheme for the database building and updating of 1∶10 000 digital elevation models

The National Bureau of Surveying and Mapping of China has planned to speed up the development of spatial data infrastructure (SDI) in the coming few years. This SDI consists of four types of digital products, i. e., digital orthophotos, digital elevation models, digital line graphs and digital raster graphs. For the DEM, a scheme for the database building and updating of 1∶10 000 digital elevation models has been proposed and some experimental tests have also been accomplished. This paper describes the theoretical (and/or technical) background and reports some of the experimental results to support the scheme. Various aspects of the scheme such as accuracy, data sources, data sampling spatial resolution, terrain modeling, data organization, etc are discussed.     

An algorithm for automatic cartographic sounding selection

Soundings on nautical charts provide information about the shape of ocean bottom between chart depth curves. A single chart may have thousands of soundings posted on it. This paper describes a new algorithm for selecting soundings automatically. At first, the problem encountered in automatic cartographic sounding selection is presented. Then the authors give the principle of the new algorithm, and the implementation is illuminated in detail. At last the experiments prove the rationality and efficiency of the new algorithm.     

Temporal and spatial changes of soil moisture and its response to temperature and precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau

ABSTRACT

The temporal and spatial characteristics of soil moisture over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) were analysed to explore the relative contributions of temperature and precipitation to soil moisture change. Non-significant changes in soil moisture were observed for the TP over the period 1950–2010, while a seasonal cycle was evident, with higher values in summer and smaller values in winter. The soil moisture showed obvious spatial heterogeneity, with higher values in the south than in the north of the TP. The soil moisture fluctuated with time, jointly influenced by precipitation and temperature changes, with precipitation the dominant factor, while temperature regulated the relationship between soil moisture and precipitation. The relative contribution of precipitation to soil moisture changes was over 80%, except for winter in which temperature was the dominant factor, with a relative contribution of more than 70%. Because of the sharp increase in temperature in winter, the uneven spatial distribution of soil moisture over the TP might harm the fragile ecological environment.     

北极海气界面过程数值模拟的敏感性试验研究

采用Colorado州立大学ARCSCM（Arctic Single-Column Model）极地柱模式,对北极表面能量平衡和低层大气结构进行模拟试验,并将模拟结果与SHEBA资料进行对比分析。对模式中的云物理过程参数化以及辐射参数化方案进行了敏感性分析,研究不同的参数化方案对北极地区海气界面过程数值模拟的影响。研究结果表明,ARCSCM模式能够模拟北极表面辐射与能量平衡的物理过程,而对于不同的参数化方案其模拟的结果有很大的差异。