Assessing macroeconomic recovery after a natural hazard based on ARIMA—a case study of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake in China

In this research the autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA) was adopted to estimate GDP growth for assessing macroeconomic recovery from a natural hazard. ARIMA is a powerful tool for predicting future macroeconomic situations based on macroeconomic data and trends before a disaster. This research examined the economic recovery of severely affected counties 6 years after the Wenchuan Earthquake by comparing the simulated regional GDP values from 2008 to 2014 with actual regional GDP data following the disaster. A macroeconomic recovery ratio model was built to assess economic resilience of the affected counties. Although the GDP of the 10 most severely affected counties grew rapidly after the earthquake, in only one county—Pengzhou City—it recovered to the pre-disaster level under a no hazard scenario. The gaps in economic recovery between the severely affected counties were significant. Areas with competitive industries and locational advantage exhibited the highest rates of recovery. Therefore, industrial structure and relative location of the affected areas to traffic nodes and economic centers should be considered in pre-disaster assistance decisions and development plans in the future.     

贵州碧江长行坡锰矿床地质特征与勘查实践

碧江长行坡锰矿床位于南华纪万山中朝溪-盆架山-长行坡IV级地堑盆地中。该地堑控制形成了长行坡、盆架山、中朝溪、洪岩洞及湖南莫家溪等中小型锰矿床。矿床具体处于区域瓦屋向斜南西段,构造线总体呈NE向展布,锰矿赋存于南华系大塘坡组第一段底部黑色炭质页岩中,呈层状、似层状大致顺层产出,含矿层内部结构较简单,一般为1层矿。矿石矿物以菱锰矿、钙菱锰矿为主;矿石具泥晶、砂屑等结构,条带状、块状构造。矿床成因类型为古天然气渗漏沉积型锰矿床。     

获取莫尔条纹位移量新方法的研究

多年来,利用莫尔条纹获取物体位移量时,大多需设计相应的硬件电路,因此限制了该技术在变形监测中的应用。本文采用C#语言编写了莫尔条纹影像的处理与量测程序,实现了对莫尔条纹图像的自动处理、叠加、参数计算及位移计算,可精确、快捷地测量变形体的位移,通过仿真实验验证,精度可达0.01 mm级。     

基于偏差矫正的有偏估计及其在GPS快速定位中的应用

基于偏差矫正的一般理论提出了不适定问题的新的有偏估计。在病态条件下,Gauss-Markov模型参数的最优线性无偏估计,即LS估计是不稳健的,所得估值方差较大,严重偏离真值。因此,文中放弃了对参数估计无偏性的限制,考虑有偏估计的偏差,结合偏差矫正的正则化解法的一般理论提出了一种新的基于偏差矫正的有偏估计;结合岭估计中参数的选择方法确定了替代矩阵。最后通过GPS动态定位算例,验证了新估计的稳定性和有效性。     

山东省海陆产业联动发展探讨

利用灰色关联分析方法,结合新的海洋经济核算标准,深入分析了山东省海陆产业关联程度。结果表明,山东省地区经济与陆地产业关联度高于海洋产业;海洋第一产业与陆地经济、陆地第一产业、陆地第三产业联系较弱,海洋第三产业与陆地第二产业联系较弱;山东省陆地经济与海洋科研教育管理服务业联系较弱。提出要以海岸带为纽带优化海陆产业联动发展布局,加强海陆产业内部的产业链对接,分阶段有重点地推进海陆产业联动发展。     

亚洲东部冬季地面温度变化与平流层弱极涡的关系

利用NCEP资料计算NAM指数和标准化温度距平,对17次平流层弱极涡事件时亚洲东部温度变化进行了研究。结果表明:平流层环流异常比对流层温度变化超前约15天,地面温度变化的最大距平出现在平流层弱极涡后期,大约以40°N为界,北部比正常年份偏冷而南部偏暖。文中通过位势涡度的分布和变化以及500 hPa东亚大槽的变化讨论了其影响过程和机理,在弱极涡初期和中期,自平流层向下,高位涡冷空气主要局限于60°N以北。从弱极涡的后期开始,在45°N以北地区,高位涡冷空气向南扩张,在对流层中上层,极地附近的高位涡冷空气扩张到45°N附近。同时,500 hPa东亚大槽虽有加强,但低压区向东延伸,而贝加尔湖附近的高压脊显著减弱,致使槽后的偏北气流减弱,槽后冷空气主要影响中国华北、东北及其以北地区,造成这些地区偏冷。而40°N以南地区,从弱极涡的后期开始有南方低位涡偏暖空气向北运动,同时冷空气活动减少,地面显著偏暖。     

农田蒸散双层模型及其在干旱遥感监测中的应用

该文建立了在部分植被条件下估算农田蒸散的双层模型，利用此模型和ＮＯＡＡ－ＡＶＨＲＲ数据对黄淮海平原春季旱情进行了评估，并做出了干旱及蒸散分布图。对双层模型和单层模型的估算结果进行了比较，结果表明在部分植被条件下双层模型估算的精度要高。     

The scheme for the database building and updating of 1∶10 000 digital elevation models

The National Bureau of Surveying and Mapping of China has planned to speed up the development of spatial data infrastructure (SDI) in the coming few years. This SDI consists of four types of digital products, i. e., digital orthophotos, digital elevation models, digital line graphs and digital raster graphs. For the DEM, a scheme for the database building and updating of 1∶10 000 digital elevation models has been proposed and some experimental tests have also been accomplished. This paper describes the theoretical (and/or technical) background and reports some of the experimental results to support the scheme. Various aspects of the scheme such as accuracy, data sources, data sampling spatial resolution, terrain modeling, data organization, etc are discussed.     

An algorithm for automatic cartographic sounding selection

Soundings on nautical charts provide information about the shape of ocean bottom between chart depth curves. A single chart may have thousands of soundings posted on it. This paper describes a new algorithm for selecting soundings automatically. At first, the problem encountered in automatic cartographic sounding selection is presented. Then the authors give the principle of the new algorithm, and the implementation is illuminated in detail. At last the experiments prove the rationality and efficiency of the new algorithm.