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121.
As climate change may modify the hydrological cycle significantly, understanding the impact on river flow is important because it affects long‐term water resources planning. Here, we describe a high‐resolution British assessment of changes in river flows in the 2050s under 11 different realisations of HadRM3. In winter, river flows may either increase or decrease, with a wide range of possible decreases in summer flow. These results should encourage adaptation that copes with a broad range of future hydrological conditions. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
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Coastal barriers are ubiquitous globally and provide a vital protective role to valuable landforms, habitats and communities located to landward. They are, however, vulnerable to extreme water levels and storm wave impacts. A detailed record of sub‐annual to annual; decadal; and centennial rates of shoreline retreat in frontages characterized by both high (> 3 m) and low (< 1 m) dunes is established for a barrier island on the UK east coast. For four storms (2006–2013) we match still water levels and peak significant wave heights against shoreline change at high levels of spatial densification. The results suggest that, at least in the short‐term, shoreline retreat, of typically 5–8 m, is primarily driven by individual events, separated by varying periods of barrier stasis. Over decadal timescales, significant inter‐decadal changes can be seen in both barrier onshore retreat rates and in barrier extension rates alongshore. Whilst the alongshore variability in barrier migration seen in the short‐term remains at the decadal scale, shoreline change at the centennial stage shows little alongshore variability between a region of barrier retreat (at 1.15 m a?1) and one of barrier extension. A data‐mining approach, synchronizing all the variables that drive shoreline change (still water level, timing of high spring tides and peak significant wave heights), is an essential requirement for validating models that predict future shoreline responses under changing sea level and storminess. © 2016 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.  相似文献   
124.
There has been limited success in determining critical thresholds of ground cover or soil characteristics that relate to significant changes in runoff or sediment production at the microscale (<1 m2), particularly in semi‐arid systems where management of ground cover is critical. Despite this lack of quantified thresholds, there is an increasing research focus on the two‐phase mosaic of vegetation patches and inter‐patches in semi‐arid systems. In order to quantify ground cover and soil related thresholds for runoff and sediment production, we used a data mining technique known as conditional inference tree analysis to determine statistically significant values of a range of measured variables that predicted average runoff, peak runoff, sediment concentration and sediment production at the microscale. On Chromic Luvisols across a range of vegetation states in semi‐arid south‐eastern Australia, large changes in runoff and sediment production were related to a hierarchy of different variables and thresholds, but the percentage of bare soil played a primary role in predicting runoff and sediment production in most instances. The identified thresholds match well with previous thresholds found in semi‐arid and temperate regions (including the approximate values of 30%, 50% and 70% total ground cover). The analysis presented here identified the critical role of soil surface roughness, particularly where total ground cover is sparse. The analysis also provided evidence that a two‐phase mosaic of patches and inter‐patches identified via rapid visual assessment could be further delineated into distinct groups of hydrological response, or a multi‐phase rather than a two‐phase system. The approach used here may aid in assessing scale‐dependent responses and address data non‐linearity in studies of semi‐arid hydrology. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
125.
International Journal of Earth Sciences - We present a new analysis of the late Alpine brittle deformation in the southern branch of the western Alpine arc, focusing on the stack of internal...  相似文献   
126.
In this paper we explore the impacts of the training programmes offered to lone mothers with young children on the Government's 'New Deal for Lone Parents' in one local labour market: West London. Our research suggests that regulatory workfare policies are (re)producing and reinforcing gendered inequalities in the labour market by encouraging lone mothers to undertake training in feminised occupational areas such as childcare. We will argue that in a local economy such as West London where more childcare workers are desperately needed to enable other more highly skilled workers to take up employment opportunities, such training programmes may be doing little more than exacerbating the already gendered and class-based polarisation of the labour market – embedding low-skilled, poorly qualified lone mothers into low-paid jobs.  相似文献   
127.
Paired watersheds are used to develop a deciduous nutrient uptake stoichiometry. The watersheds are those of the House Rock Run and the Brubaker Run located in the Pennsylvania Appalachian Piedmont, USA. These two watersheds are nearly identical with respect to bedrock, regolith, climate, geomorphology, morphometry, baseflow hydrology, and type and successional stage of forest vegetation. They only differ by the percentage of deciduous forest cover, with House Rock Run having 59% and Brubaker Run having 76%. From differences in their stream chemistries the biomass nutrient uptake stoichiometry of K1.0Mg1.0Ca1.4 was determined. This stoichiometry applies to an aggrading deciduous biomass and differs from those previously used which were derived from net primary production (NPP) data. The difference may reflect that macronutrients in plant tissue may also originate from atmospheric inputs and/or decomposing biomass. Although this stoichiometry may not be applied to all deciduous forest-covered watersheds, it is likely an improvement over a stoichiometry determined from NPP data.  相似文献   
128.
We describe a remote sensing and geographic information system (GIS)-based study that has three objectives: (1) characterize fine particulate matter (PM2.5), insolation and land surface temperature (LST) using NASA satellite observations, Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) ground-level monitor data and North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) data products on a national scale; (2) link these data with public health data from the REasons for Geographic And Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) national cohort study to determine whether these environmental risk factors are related to cognitive decline, stroke and other health outcomes and (3) disseminate the environmental datasets and public health linkage analyses to end users for decision-making through the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (WONDER) system. This study directly addresses a public health focus of the NASA Applied Sciences Program, utilization of Earth Sciences products, by addressing issues of environmental health to enhance public health decision-making.  相似文献   
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We assess the future of coal under alternative climate stabilization regimes, investigating how the quantity and location of future coal production, trade and use depends upon five factors: the supply-side constraint of resource depletion, diversification and deepening of international trade, economic growth, trends in energy intensity, and the availability of coal-fired carbon-free electric generation technology (IGCC-CCS). Using the Phoenix computable general equilibrium model of the world economy, we find that coal is sensitive to demand-side assumptions about economic growth and energy-saving structural or technological change. In a 550 ppm stabilization emission tax scenario, the gobal coal industry initially declines sharply and then rebounds, in 2050 reaching roughly the same size as it is today—but only if IGCC-CCS is available by 2020. Under alternative stabilization regimes, IGCC-CCS penetration is a key influence on production and imports in major coal regions, where it interacts with extraction costs driven by the rate of depletion relative to trade partners.  相似文献   
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