A Holocene tsunami deposit in eastern Scotland

A thin, regionally extensive, laterally persistent sand layer identified within the Holocene coastal sequences of eastern Scotland, dated to 7000 years BP, is suggested to be a tsunami deposit. The likely source of the tsunami wave is the earthquake induced second Storegga Slide on the Norwegian continental slope at least 750 km northeast of the deposit.     

Discovery of a Color-selected Quasar at z = 5.50

I show how the existing observational data on Local Group dwarf galaxies can be used to estimate the average star formation law during the first 3 Gyr of the history of the universe. I find that the observational data are consistent with the orthodox Schmidt law with a star formation efficiency of about 4% if the star formation is continuous (during the first 3 Gyr). The efficiency is proportionally higher if most of the gas in the dwarfs was consumed (and never replenished) in a short time interval well before the universe turned 3 Gyr.     

The Bullerwell Lecture 2008

A new adaptive optics system at the Palomar Observatory makes use of random atmospheric fluctuations to get high-resolution astronomical images from the surface of the Earth – twice as sharp as Hubble Space Telescope images.     

Elementary? Comet outburst caught by the INT

New observations of the Bullet Cluster suggest that a revised version of Newton's gravitational theory can account for the patterns seen, just as well as the conventional explanation of dark matter affecting the mass distribution.     

Sampling-based flood risk analysis for fluvial dike systems

A dike system of moderate size has a large number of potential system states, and the loading imposed on the system is inherently random. If the system should fail, in one of its many potential failure modes, the topography of UK floodplains is usually such that hydrodynamic modelling of flood inundation is required to generate realistic estimates of flood depth and hence damage. To do so for all possible failure states may require 1,000s of computationally expensive inundation simulations. A risk-based sampling technique is proposed in order to reduce the computational resources required to estimate flood risk. The approach is novel in that the loading and dike system states (obtained using a simplified reliability analysis) are sampled according to the contribution that a given region of the space of basic variables makes to risk. The methodology is demonstrated in a strategic flood risk assessment for the city of Burton-upon-Trent in the UK. 5,000 inundation model simulations were run although it was shown that the flood risk estimate converged adequately after approximately half this number. The case study demonstrates that, amongst other factors, risk is a complex function of loadings, dike resistance, floodplain topography and the spatial distribution of floodplain assets. The application of this approach allows flood risk managers to obtain an improved understanding of the flooding system, its vulnerabilities and the most efficient means of allocating resource to improve performance. It may also be used to test how the system may respond to future external perturbations.     

Three-dimensional liquefaction potential analysis using geostatistical interpolation

We applied three-dimensional geostatistical interpolation to evaluate the extent of liquefiable materials at two sites that liquefied during the 1994 Northridge Earthquake. The sites were the Balboa Blvd site and the Wynne Ave. site located in the alluvial San Fernando Valley. The estimated peak ground accelerations at the sites are 0.84 g (Balboa Blvd) and 0.51 g (Wynne Ave.). These sites were chosen because surface effects due to liquefaction were not predicted using available techniques based on thickness and depth of liquefiable layers (Ishihara [Ishihara K. Stability of natural deposits during earthquakes. Proceedings of the 11th international conference on soil mechanics and foundation engineering, vol. 1. Rotterdam, The Netherlands: A.A. Balkema; 1985. p. 321–76.]) and the Liquefaction Potential Index (Iwasaki et al. [Iwasaki T, Tatsuoka F, Tokida K, Yasuda S. A practical method for assessing soil liquefaction potential based on case studies at various sites in Japan. In: Proceedings of the second international conference on microzonation, San Francisco; 1978. p. 885–96.]). During the earthquake, both sites experienced surface effects including ground cracking and extension as a result of liquefaction. Foundations and buried utilities were damaged at both sites. The sites were investigated after the event by researchers with the United States Geologic Survey using standard penetration tests (SPT) and cone penetration tests. In this paper, liquefaction potential was estimated for each soil sample using results from SPTs according to the updated Seed and Idriss simplified procedure. The probability of liquefaction was estimated by applying an indicator transform to the results of the liquefaction potential calculation. We compared our results to detailed geologic mapping of the sites performed by other researchers. Using geostatistical interpolation to estimate the probability of liquefaction is a useful supplement to geologic evaluation of liquefaction potential. The geostatistical analysis provides an estimate of the continuous volume of liquefiable soil along with an assessment of confidence in an interpolation. The probability of liquefaction volumes compare well with those predicted using geologic interpretations.     

Merged remotely sensed data for geomorphological investigations in deserts: examples from central Saudi Arabia

Image merging has gained acceptance in geological remote sensing, however it has rarely been applied in geomorphology. We report on the usefulness of principal components substitution (PCS) to merge IRS panchromatic data with multispectral Thematic Mapper (TM) imagery, to map commonly encountered desert geomorphological features, and in relative age dating of alluvial surfaces. The merged data were applied to the identification and mapping of geomorphological features along two geolo-gically different mountain fronts in central Saudi Arabia. Two types of geomorphological maps have been created. A morphogenetic map that distinguishes between aeolian landforms, fluvial landforms, desert pavements, and gypsum crusts. Second, a morphochronological map, which shows the relative age of four geomorphic surfaces developed on an alluvial fan. The construction of the two maps is supported by field observations and laboratory measurements. Using the optimum index factor (OIF), a TM band 1, 5 and 7 image (of 20 merged composites) was found to be the optimum colour composite image for the geomorphological features in this arid environment. We discuss our findings in the context of the spatial and spectral properties required for applied geomorphological remote sensing.     

Data and debate

Sue Bowler draws together some of the NAM scientific sessions, to capture the flavour of this lively and popular meeting.     

Heterogeneous deformation and texture development in halite polycrystals: comparison of different modeling approaches and experimental data

Modeling the plastic deformation and texture evolution in halite is challenging due to its high plastic anisotropy at the single crystal level and to the influence this exerts on the heterogeneity of deformation over halite polycrystals. Three different assumptions for averaging the single crystal responses over the polycrystal were used: a Taylor hypothesis, a self-consistent viscoplastic model, and a finite element methodology. The three modeling approaches employ the same single crystal relations, but construct the polycrystal response differently. The results are compared with experimental data for extension at two temperatures: 20 and 100 °C. These comparisons provide new insights of how the interplay of compatibility and local equilibrium affects the overall plastic behavior and the texture development in highly anisotropic polycrystalline materials. Neither formulation is able to completely simulate the texture development of halite polycrystals while, at the same time, giving sound predictions of microstructural evolution. Results obtained using the finite element methodology are promising, although they point to the need for greater resolution of the individual crystals to capture the full impact of deformation heterogeneities.     

Analysis of long-period events recorded at Mount Etna (Italy) in 1992, and their relationship to eruptive activity

Seismic activity recorded at Mount Etna during 1992 was characterized by long-period (LP) events and tremor with fluctuating amplitudes. These signals were associated with the evolution of the eruptive activity that began on December 14, 1991. Following the occurrence of numerous volcano-tectonic earthquakes at the onset of the eruption, LP events dominated the overall seismicity starting in January, 1992. The LP activity occurred primarily in swarms, which were temporally correlated with episodic collapses of the crater floor in the Northeast Crater. Source depths determined for selected LP events suggest a source region located slightly east of Northeast Crater and extending from the surface to a depth of 2000 m. Based on the characteristic signatures of the time series, four families of LP events are identified. Each family shares common spectral peaks independent of azimuth and distance to the source. These spectral features are used to develop a fluid-filled crack model of the source. We hypothesize that the locus of the LP events represents a segment of the magma feeding system connecting a depressurizing magma body with a dike extending in the SSE direction along the western wall of Valle del Bove, toward the site of the Mount Etna eruption. We surmise that magma withdrawal from the source volume beneath Northeast Crater may have caused repeated collapses of the crater floor. Some collapse events may have produced pressure transients in the subjacent dike which acted as seismic wave sources for LP events.