Assessing multifaceted vulnerability and resilience in order to design risk-mitigation strategies

Vulnerability studies have evolved significantly in recent decades. Although not overly theoretical compared with some other fields of science, some important conceptual progress has been made. At the practical level, vulnerability indicators have been used either at a generic level or for particular hazard contexts. However, these indicators are often predictably too narrow in their coverage of aspects of vulnerability. An important need remains to produce more conceptually informed vulnerability indicators or parameters and more satisfactory operational tools to assess weaknesses and resilience in coping with natural risks. In this paper, we present the methodology developed in the context of a recently concluded EU funded project, ENSURE (Enhancing resilience of communities and territories facing natural and na-tech hazards). The resulting vulnerability and resilience assessment framework tool adopts a systemic approach embedding and integrating as much as possible the multifaceted and articulated nature of concepts such as vulnerability and resilience. The tool guides evaluators towards a comprehensive and context-related understanding of strengths and fragilities of a given territory and community with respect to natural extremes. In this paper, both the framework tool and its application to Sondrio in Italy, which is exposed to flash floods, are presented and discussed. The merits and demerits of the new tool are discussed, and the results of the application to Sondrio indicate where data are currently missing, suggesting the kind of data, which will need to be gathered in future to achieve more complete assessments. The results also suggest vulnerability reduction policies and actions and further ways of revising the existing framework tool in the future.     

Plausible responses to the threat of rapid sea-level rise in the Thames Estuary

This paper considers the perceptions and responses of selected stakeholders to a very low probability but high consequence climatic ‘surprise’—a scenario of rapid collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet, producing a global rise in sea-level of 5  m over 100 years. It uses a case study of the Thames Estuary, UK, including London. Through a process of dialogue involving one-to-one interviews and a 1-day policy exercise, we addressed influences on decision-making when information is uncertain and our ability to plan, prepare for and implement effective ways of coping with this extreme scenario. The interviews and policy exercise explored plausible responses to the scenario and identified weaknesses in flood management approaches to dealing with such an occurrence. The analysis shows that an extreme scenario could be highly challenging, even for an area with well-developed institutions. Participants favoured two options (a) reconfiguring London around the rising water, and (b) building a new downstream barrier which would allow London to continue as today. The lack of consensus suggests the potential for policy paralysis in response to what is a highly uncertain phenomena—this could lead to a forced, unplanned response as the rapid change overwhelmed the existing defence capability. Hence, low probability, high consequence climatic events may challenge our existing institutions. Adaptive management is presented as an approach which could address this challenge.     

The 'Carina Flare' supershell: probing the atomic and molecular ISM in a Galactic chimney

The 'Carina Flare' supershell, GSH 287+04−17, is a molecular supershell originally discovered in  ¹²CO( J = 1–0)  with the NANTEN 4 m telescope. We present the first study of the shell's atomic ISM, using H  i 21-cm line data from the Parkes 64-m telescope Southern Galactic Plane Survey. The data reveal a gently expanding,  ∼230 × 360  pc H  i supershell that shows strong evidence of Galactic Plane blowout, with a break in its main body at   z ∼ 280  pc and a capped high-latitude extension reaching   z ∼ 450  pc. The molecular clouds form comoving parts of the atomic shell, and the morphology of the two phases reflects the supershell's influence on the structure of the ISM. We also report the first discovery of an ionized component of the supershell, in the form of delicate, streamer-like filaments aligned with the proposed direction of blowout. The distance estimate to the shell is re-examined, and we find strong evidence to support the original suggestion that it is located in the Carina Arm at a distance of  2.6 ± 0.4 kpc  . Associated H  i and H₂ masses are estimated as   M _H I≈ 7 ± 3 × 10⁵ M_⊙  and     , and the kinetic energy of the expanding shell as   E _K ∼ 1 × 10⁵¹  erg. We examine the results of analytical and numerical models to estimate a required formation energy of several 10⁵¹ to  ∼10⁵²  erg, and an age of  ∼10⁷ yr  . This age is compatible with molecular cloud formation time-scales, and we briefly consider the viability of a supershell-triggered origin for the molecular component.     

Fidelity of the integrated kinetic energy factor as an indicator of storm surge impacts

Natural Hazards - After the devastating hurricane season of 2005, shortcomings with the Saffir–Simpson Hurricane Scale’s (SSHS) ability to characterize a tropical cyclone’s...     

Discovery of a Color-selected Quasar at z = 5.50

I show how the existing observational data on Local Group dwarf galaxies can be used to estimate the average star formation law during the first 3 Gyr of the history of the universe. I find that the observational data are consistent with the orthodox Schmidt law with a star formation efficiency of about 4% if the star formation is continuous (during the first 3 Gyr). The efficiency is proportionally higher if most of the gas in the dwarfs was consumed (and never replenished) in a short time interval well before the universe turned 3 Gyr.     

Sampling-based flood risk analysis for fluvial dike systems

A dike system of moderate size has a large number of potential system states, and the loading imposed on the system is inherently random. If the system should fail, in one of its many potential failure modes, the topography of UK floodplains is usually such that hydrodynamic modelling of flood inundation is required to generate realistic estimates of flood depth and hence damage. To do so for all possible failure states may require 1,000s of computationally expensive inundation simulations. A risk-based sampling technique is proposed in order to reduce the computational resources required to estimate flood risk. The approach is novel in that the loading and dike system states (obtained using a simplified reliability analysis) are sampled according to the contribution that a given region of the space of basic variables makes to risk. The methodology is demonstrated in a strategic flood risk assessment for the city of Burton-upon-Trent in the UK. 5,000 inundation model simulations were run although it was shown that the flood risk estimate converged adequately after approximately half this number. The case study demonstrates that, amongst other factors, risk is a complex function of loadings, dike resistance, floodplain topography and the spatial distribution of floodplain assets. The application of this approach allows flood risk managers to obtain an improved understanding of the flooding system, its vulnerabilities and the most efficient means of allocating resource to improve performance. It may also be used to test how the system may respond to future external perturbations.     

Three-dimensional liquefaction potential analysis using geostatistical interpolation

We applied three-dimensional geostatistical interpolation to evaluate the extent of liquefiable materials at two sites that liquefied during the 1994 Northridge Earthquake. The sites were the Balboa Blvd site and the Wynne Ave. site located in the alluvial San Fernando Valley. The estimated peak ground accelerations at the sites are 0.84 g (Balboa Blvd) and 0.51 g (Wynne Ave.). These sites were chosen because surface effects due to liquefaction were not predicted using available techniques based on thickness and depth of liquefiable layers (Ishihara [Ishihara K. Stability of natural deposits during earthquakes. Proceedings of the 11th international conference on soil mechanics and foundation engineering, vol. 1. Rotterdam, The Netherlands: A.A. Balkema; 1985. p. 321–76.]) and the Liquefaction Potential Index (Iwasaki et al. [Iwasaki T, Tatsuoka F, Tokida K, Yasuda S. A practical method for assessing soil liquefaction potential based on case studies at various sites in Japan. In: Proceedings of the second international conference on microzonation, San Francisco; 1978. p. 885–96.]). During the earthquake, both sites experienced surface effects including ground cracking and extension as a result of liquefaction. Foundations and buried utilities were damaged at both sites. The sites were investigated after the event by researchers with the United States Geologic Survey using standard penetration tests (SPT) and cone penetration tests. In this paper, liquefaction potential was estimated for each soil sample using results from SPTs according to the updated Seed and Idriss simplified procedure. The probability of liquefaction was estimated by applying an indicator transform to the results of the liquefaction potential calculation. We compared our results to detailed geologic mapping of the sites performed by other researchers. Using geostatistical interpolation to estimate the probability of liquefaction is a useful supplement to geologic evaluation of liquefaction potential. The geostatistical analysis provides an estimate of the continuous volume of liquefiable soil along with an assessment of confidence in an interpolation. The probability of liquefaction volumes compare well with those predicted using geologic interpretations.     

Enhancing the human benefits of flood warnings

This article evaluates some of the factors which limit the human benefits of hazard warnings, with specific reference to flood warnings, and we conclude by suggesting ways of enhancing these benefits. We focus mainly upon the economic benefits generated by flood damage savings by households that warnings facilitate; health effects of flooding and flood warnings; and the effects of warnings on loss of life and physical injury. Our results, based partly upon surveys of flooded households, reveal that economic benefits are currently more limited than we previously thought, but that for several reasons these benefits are likely to be under-estimated. We argue that the intangible benefits to public health, safety and security must also be taken into account in decisions about investment in flood warnings. In England and Wales, the public’s response to flood warnings is currently low and is a key benefit-limiting factor which could begin to undermine a recent major shift in national flood risk management policy towards a more people-centred, portfolio approach in which changing human behaviour is viewed as important. Using a trans-disciplinary approach, we discuss the evidence and literature surrounding this poor response, and suggest a number of ways in which the issue may be addressed in future.