Uncertainty Analysis for Assessing Leakage Through Water Tunnels: A Case from Nepal Himalaya

Water leakage problems in unlined or shotcrete lined water tunnels are not new issues. In many occasions severe water leakage problems have been faced that not only have reduced the stability of the rock mass, but also have caused valuable water to be lost from it, causing safety risk as well as huge economic loss to the projects. Hence, making tunnels water tight plays an important role in improving stability and safety of underground excavations. The real challenge is however accurate prediction and quantification of possible water leakage, so that cost consequences can be incorporated during planning of a water conveying tunnel project. The main purposes of this paper are to analyze extensive data on leakage test carried out through exploratory drillhole used to define the need for pre-injection grouting of Khimti headrace tunnel and to carry out probabilistic approach of uncertainty analysis based on relationship established between leakage, hydrostatic head and selected Q-value parameters. The authors believe that the new approach regarding uncertainty analysis of leakage presented in this paper will improve the understanding of leakage characteristics of the rock mass, and hope this will lead to a better understanding concerning quantification of possible water leakage from unlined and shotcrete lined water tunnels.     

Performance of Multi Model Canonical Correlation Analysis (MMCCA) for prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall using GCMs output

The emerging advances in the field of dynamical prediction of monsoon using state-of-the-art General Circulation Models (GCMs) have led to the development of various multi model ensemble techniques (MMEs). In the present study, the concept of Canonical Correlation Analysis is used for making MME (referred as Multi Model Canonical Correlation Analysis or MMCCA) for the prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) during June-July-August-September (JJAS). This method has been employed on the rainfall outputs of six different GCMs for the period 1982 to 2008. The prediction skill of ISMR by MMCCA is compared with the simple composite method (SCM) (i.e. arithmetic mean of all GCMs), which is taken as a benchmark. After a rigorous analysis through different skill metrics such as correlation coefficient and index of agreement, the superiority of MMCCA over SCM is illustrated. Performance of both models is also evaluated during six typical monsoon years and the results indicate the potential of MMCCA over SCM in capturing the spatial pattern during extreme years.     

A neurocomputing approach to predict monsoon rainfall in monthly scale using SST anomaly as a predictor

A relationship between summer monsoon rainfall and sea surface temperature anomalies was investigated with the aim of predicting the monthly scale rainfall during the summer monsoon period over a section (80°–90°E, 14°–24°N) of eastern India that depends heavily upon the rainfall during the summer monsoon months for its agricultural practices. The association between area-averaged rainfall of June over the study zone and global sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies for the period 1982–2008 was examined and the variability of rainfall in monthly scale was calculated. With a view to significant variability in the rainfall in the monthly scale, it was decided to implement the artificial neural network (ANN) for forecasting the monthly scale rainfall using the SST anomalies as a predictor. Finally, the potential of ANN in this prediction has been assessed.     

High energy X-γ ray spectrometer on the Chandrayaan-1 mission to the Moon

The Chandrayaan-1 mission to the Moon scheduled for launch in late 2007 will include a high energy X-ray spectrometer (HEX) for detection of naturally occurring emissions from the lunar surface due to radioactive decay of the²³⁸U and²³²Th series nuclides in the energy region 20–250 keV. The primary science objective is to study the transport of volatiles on the lunar surface by detection of the 46.5 keV line from radioactive²¹⁰Pb, a decay product of the gaseous²²²Rn, both of which are members of the²³⁸U decay series. Mapping of U and Th concentration over the lunar surface, particularly in the polar and U-Th rich regions will also be attempted through detection of prominent lines from the U and Th decay series in the above energy range. The low signal strengths of these emissions require a detector with high sensitivity and good energy resolution. Pixelated Cadmium-Zinc-Telluride (CZT) array detectors having these characteristics will be used in this experiment. Here we describe the science considerations that led to this experiment, anticipated flux and background (lunar continuum), the choice of detectors, the proposed payload configuration and plans for its realization     

Distribution of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in recent sediments of Sundarban mangrove wetland of India and Bangladesh: a comparative approach

The present work is the first attempt to compare the data of a comprehensive study of the origin and distribution of 16 priority pollutant polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in surface sediments (<63 μm) from 18 sampling stations, 9 from Sundarban of Bangladesh and 9 from Indian counterpart. Σ19PAHs concentration in sediments showed wide variations from 208.3 to 12,993.1 ng g^?1 dry weight in Indian Sundarban, whereas 208.4 to 4,687.9 ng g^?1 in the case of Bangladesh. Fluoranthene, pyrene, benzo(b)fluoranthene, benzo(a)pyrene and dibenzo(a,h)anthracene were predominant species for both the countries. The PAH diagnostic ratios indicated that the PAHs in sediments from both the countries were of mixed source of hydrocarbons of both petrogenic and pyrolytic origin. According to the numerical effect-based sediment quality guidelines, the levels of PAHs in the Sundarban wetland of Bangladesh and India should not exert adverse biological effects. The TEQ values calculated for samples from the Bangladesh and Indian Sundarban varied from 13.68 to 1,014.75 and 1.31 to 2,451 ng g^?1 d.w. with an average of 221.02 and 358.63 ng g^?1, respectively. The overall contamination status of PAH was higher in India than Bangladesh.     

Geochemical characteristics of Holocene sediments from Chuadanga district,Bangladesh: Implications for weathering,climate, redox conditions,provenance and tectonic setting

The present research deals with the geochemical characteristics of the Holocene sediments from Alamdanga area, Chuadanga district, Bangladesh. Main goals of the study are to delineate source rock characteristics, degree of chemical weathering and sorting processes and behavior of redox conditions during deposition of the sediments. Geochemical characteristics of the sediments show comparatively a wide variation in accordance with stratigraphy in their major element contents （e.g. SiO2 69.46-82.13, A1203 2.28-8.88 in wt%）, reflecting the distinctive provenance and in part an unstable period in terms of tectonic activity. Geochemical classification of the sediments shows mostly sub-arkose with few sub-litharenites. Some major and trace elements display comprehensible correlation with A1203 confirming their possible hydraulic fraetionation. The chemical index of alteration （CIA＊）, W＊ index, index of compositional variability （ICV）, plagioclase index of alteration （PIA＊） values and the ratio of SIO2/Al2O3, suggest low degrees of chemical weathering in the source areas as well as immature to moderately mature the sediments. The sediments suggest semi-arid climatic trends within oxic deltaic depositional conditions during the Holocene, at 3-12 ka. Whole rock geochemistry and discrimination diagrams demonstrate the continental signature derivatives, which might have been derived from the felsic to intermediate igneous rocks （granitic plutonic rocks） as well as from quartzose sedimentary/metamorphic provenance. These typical sources are present in a vast region of the Himalayan belt and catchment areas of Ganges. The tectonic setting of the sediments demarcates typically passive margin with slightly continental arc system.