Correlations between algae and water quality: factors driving eutrophication in Lake Taihu, China

Rapid population increase and economic growth in eastern China has lead to the degradation of many water bodies in the region, such as Lake Taihu, the third largest freshwater lake in China. Using data from recent investigations, the correlations between algae (measured as chlorophyll-a) and water quality indices in Lake Taihu were described by multivariate statistical analyses, and the key driving factors for the lake eutrophication were identified by principal component analysis. Results revealed strong spatiotemporal variation in the correlations between algae and water quality indices, suggesting that the limiting factor for the dominant algae growth depends on seasonality and location and it is necessary to reduce both nitrogen and phosphorus inputs for a long-term eutrophication control in this hyper-eutrophic system. Water temperature was another important controlling factor for algal growth in the lake. Using principal component analysis, nutrient contaminations from anthropogenic and natural inputs were identified as the key driving factor for the water quality problems of the lake. Moreover, five principal components were extracted and characterized with high spatial and seasonal variations in Lake Taihu. The key driving factors were believed to influence spatial variations including heavily polluted areas located in the northern and northwestern parts of the lake, where many manufacturing factories were built and wastewater from domestic and industrial plants was discharged. Based on this analysis, attention should be paid to effective land management, industrial wastewater treatment, and macrophytic vegetation restoration to reduce the pollutant loads and improve water quality. Principal component analysis was found to be a useful and effective method to reduce the number of analytical parameters without notably impairing the quality of information in this study.     

Classification of slopes and prediction of factor of safety using differential evolution neural networks

Slope stability analysis is one of the most important problems in geotechnical engineering. The development in slope stability analysis has followed the development in computational geotechnical engineering. This paper discusses the application of different recently developed artificial neural network models to slope stability analysis based on the actual slope failure database available in the literature. Different ANN models are developed to classify the slope as stable or unstable (failed) and to predict the factor of safety. The developed ANN model is found to be efficient compared with other methods like support vector machine and genetic programming available in literature. Prediction models are presented based on the developed ANN model parameters. Different sensitivity analyses are made to identify the important input parameters.     

Improving assessment of groundwater-resource sustainability with deterministic modelling: a case study of the semi-arid Musi sub-basin, South India

Since the 1990s, Indian farmers, supported by the government, have partially shifted from surface-water to groundwater irrigation in response to the uncertainty in surface-water availability. Water-management authorities only slowly began to consider sustainable use of groundwater resources as a prime concern. Now, a reliable integration of groundwater resources for water-allocation planning is needed to prevent aquifer overexploitation. Within the 11,000-km² Musi River sub-basin (South India), human interventions have dramatically impacted the hard-rock aquifers, with a water-table drop of 0.18 m/a over the period 1989–2004. A fully distributed numerical groundwater model was successfully implemented at catchment scale. The model allowed two distinct conceptualizations of groundwater availability to be quantified: one that was linked to easily quantified fluxes, and one that was more expressive of long-term sustainability by taking account of all sources and sinks. Simulations showed that the latter implied 13 % less available groundwater for exploitation than did the former. In turn, this has major implications for the existing water-allocation modelling framework used to guide decision makers and water-resources managers worldwide.     

On the Predictability of Northeast Monsoon Rainfall over South Peninsular India in General Circulation Models

In this study the predictability of northeast monsoon (Oct–Nov–Dec) rainfall over peninsular India by eight general circulation model (GCM) outputs was analyzed. These GCM outputs (forecasts for the whole season issued in September) were compared with high-resolution observed gridded rainfall data obtained from the India Meteorological Department for the period 1982–2010. Rainfall, interannual variability (IAV), correlation coefficients, and index of agreement were examined for the outputs of eight GCMs and compared with observation. It was found that the models are able to reproduce rainfall and IAV to different extents. The predictive power of GCMs was also judged by determining the signal-to-noise ratio and the external error variance; it was noted that the predictive power of the models was usually very low. To examine dominant modes of interannual variability, empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis was also conducted. EOF analysis of the models revealed they were capable of representing the observed precipitation variability to some extent. The teleconnection between the sea surface temperature (SST) and northeast monsoon rainfall was also investigated and results suggest that during OND the SST over the equatorial Indian Ocean, the Bay of Bengal, the central Pacific Ocean (over Nino3 region), and the north and south Atlantic Ocean enhances northeast monsoon rainfall. This observed phenomenon is only predicted by the CCM3v6 model.     

Simultaneous Multi-Wavelength Observations of the TeV Blazar Mrk 421 during February - March, 2003： X-Ray and NIR Correlated Variability

We report the result of simultaneous multi-wavelength observations of the TeV blazar Mrk 421 during February - March 2003. We observed Mrk 421 using the Pachmarhi Array of Cerenkov Telescopes (PACT) of Tata Institute of Fundamental Research at Pachmarhi, India. Other simultaneous data were taken from the literature and public data archives. We have analyzed the high quality X-ray (2-20keV) observations from the NASA Rossi X-Ray Timing Explorer (RXTE). We obtained a possible correlated variability between X-ray and J band (1.25 μ) near infrared (NIR) wavelength. This is the first case of X-ray and NIR correlated variability in Mrk 421 or any high energy peaked (HBL) blazar. The correlated variability reported here indicates a similar origin for the NIR and X-ray emissions. The emission is not affected much by the environment of the surrounding medium of the central engine of Mrk 421. The observations are consistent with the shock-in-jet model for the emissions.     

Impact of multispecies diatom bloom on plankton community structure in Sundarban mangrove wetland,India

A multispecies bloom caused by the centric diatoms, viz. Coscinodiscus radiatus, Chaetoceros lorenzianus and the pennate diatom Thalassiothrix frauenfeldii was investigated in the context of its impact on phytoplankton and microzooplankton (the loricate ciliate tintinnids) in the coastal regions of Sagar Island, the western part of Sundarban mangrove wetland, India. Both number (15–18 species) and cell densities (12.3 × 10³ cells l⁻¹ to 11.4 × 10⁵ cells l⁻¹) of phytoplankton species increased during peak bloom phase, exhibiting moderately high species diversity (H′ = 2.86), richness (R′ = 6.38) and evenness (E′ = 0.80). The diatom bloom, which existed for a week, had a negative impact on the tintinnid community in terms of drastic changes in species diversity index (1.09–0.004) and population density (582.5 × 10³ to 50 × 10³ ind m⁻³). The bloom is suggested to have been driven by the aquaculture activities and river effluents resulting high nutrient concentrations in this region. An attempt has been made to correlate the satellite remote sensing-derived information to the bloom conditions. MODIS-Aqua derived chlorophyll maps have been interpreted.     

Analysis of seismicity of central Luzon by pattern recognition

The distribution of large shallow earthquakes (magnitude ?5.5) in central Luzon, Philippines, related to the underthrusting of the Eurasian plate, is examined by the technique of pattern recognition. The objective of the study is (1) to forecast restricted zones of seismic activity, (2) to determine geological features which, in combination, are associated with the earthquakes in the environment of subduction, and (3) to determine whether more insight into regional seismicity can be gained by pattern recognition studies than by conventional seismicity studies. It appears from this analysis that large earthquakes occur (a) in a zone between the shallower portion of Manila Trench on its landward side and the belt of volcanoes and (b) on large strike-slip faults in the region such as Verde Island Passage fault and the Philippine fault. In these zones, large earthquakes occur at locations identified by large topographic relief in the vicinity and a high degree of fractured crust. In contrast to characteristics in California and central Asia, the intersection of faults nearby is not a major characteristic for large earthquakes in and near central Luzon. Topography and degree of fractured crust are important characteristics in all areas studied so far. Several earthquakes which are known to have occurred were considered unknown, and control experiments were carried out to determine whether the locations of these earthquakes would be identified as having potential for large earthquakes. The results of control experiments indicate that the pattern recognition technique is fairly successful in spatial forecasting if the known historical record is assumed almost complete for various major zones (85% in this case). It fails to forecast if information is totally lacking about earthquake activity on a tectonic feature. In the present study, a control experiment was able to correctly identify the locations of two of the largest earthquakes known to have occurred in the area. It was better able to identify locations of large earthquakes than a simple contouring of known earthquake locations would suggest.     

Spatial changes in volcanic and seismic activity prior to great earthquakes

Spatial relationship between volcanism and seismicity prior to the occurrence of several great interplate earthquakes in the circum Pacific area has been examined in order to understand the process of underthrusting in detail. The locations of the epicenters of the great earthquakes have been examined in terms of locations of concentrated volcanic and seismic activity in a short time period in order to determine if there is any relationship between these activities, and whether such relationships can be used to refine the underthrusting model. The study shows that in most cases, (1) there is no volcanic activity in the vicinity of the epicenter of the great earthquake and (2) maximum volcanic activity is localized, i.e., volcanoes adjacent to one another exhibit considerable activity in a short time period. Very little systematic spatial relationship between these three parameters is observed although in most cases, there is no volcanic activity at the time of maximum earthquake activity. Locations of active volcanoes and earthquake activity, during the five years prior to the occurrence of the great earthquake, do not appear to be a guide to the epicenter of the great earthquake. This study therefore suggests that although there is temporal relationship between the occurrence of maximum volcanic and seismic activity and the occurrence of great earthquake, there appears to be no systematic spatial relationship between these three parameters.     

Surface waves in a micropolar elastic solid containing voids

The present paper investigates the effect of voids on the propagation of surface waves in a homogeneous micropolar elastic solid medium which contains a distribution of vacuous pores (voids). The general theory for surface wave propagation in micropolar elastic media containing voids has been presented. Particular cases of surface waves (Rayleigh’s, Love’s and Stoneley’s) in micropolar media which contain vacuous pores have been deduced from the above general theory. Discussions have been made in each case to highlight the effect of voids and micropolar character of the material medium separately. Their joint effect has also been studied in details. Modulation of Rayleigh wave velocity has been studied numerically. It is observed that Love waves are not affected by the presence of voids.