Probabilistic prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall using global climate models

Probabilistic seasonal predictions of rainfall that incorporate proper uncertainties are essential for climate risk management. In this study, three different multi-model ensemble (MME) approaches are used to generate probabilistic seasonal hindcasts of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall based on a set of eight global climate models for the 1982–2009 period. The three MME approaches differ in their calculation of spread of the forecast distribution, treated as a Gaussian, while all three use the simple multi-model subdivision average to define the mean of the forecast distribution. The first two approaches use the within-ensemble spread and error residuals of ensemble mean hindcasts, respectively, to compute the variance of the forecast distribution. The third approach makes use of the correlation between the ensemble mean hindcasts and the observations to define the spread using a signal-to-noise ratio. Hindcasts are verified against high-resolution gridded rainfall data from India Meteorological Department in terms of meteorological subdivision spatial averages. The use of correlation for calculating the spread provides better skill than the other two methods in terms of rank probability skill score. In order to further improve the skill, an additional method has been used to generate multi-model probabilistic predictions based on simple averaging of tercile category probabilities from individual models. It is also noted that when such a method is used, skill of probabilistic forecasts is improved as compared with using the multi-model ensemble mean to define the mean of the forecast distribution and then probabilities are estimated. However, skill of the probabilistic predictions of the Indian monsoon rainfall is too low.     

Comparison of parameter uncertainty analysis techniques for a TOPMODEL application

Parameter uncertainty in hydrologic modeling is crucial to the flood simulation and forecasting. The Bayesian approach allows one to estimate parameters according to prior expert knowledge as well as observational data about model parameter values. This study assesses the performance of two popular uncertainty analysis (UA) techniques, i.e., generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) and Bayesian method implemented with the Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling algorithm, in evaluating model parameter uncertainty in flood simulations. These two methods were applied to the semi-distributed Topographic hydrologic model (TOPMODEL) that includes five parameters. A case study was carried out for a small humid catchment in the southeastern China. The performance assessment of the GLUE and Bayesian methods were conducted with advanced tools suited for probabilistic simulations of continuous variables such as streamflow. Graphical tools and scalar metrics were used to test several attributes of the simulation quality of selected flood events: deterministic accuracy and the accuracy of 95 % prediction probability uncertainty band (95PPU). Sensitivity analysis was conducted to identify sensitive parameters that largely affect the model output results. Subsequently, the GLUE and Bayesian methods were used to analyze the uncertainty of sensitive parameters and further to produce their posterior distributions. Based on their posterior parameter samples, TOPMODEL’s simulations and the corresponding UA results were conducted. Results show that the form of exponential decline in conductivity and the overland flow routing velocity were sensitive parameters in TOPMODEL in our case. Small changes in these two parameters would lead to large differences in flood simulation results. Results also suggest that, for both UA techniques, most of streamflow observations were bracketed by 95PPU with the containing ratio value larger than 80 %. In comparison, GLUE gave narrower prediction uncertainty bands than the Bayesian method. It was found that the mode estimates of parameter posterior distributions are suitable to result in better performance of deterministic outputs than the 50 % percentiles for both the GLUE and Bayesian analyses. In addition, the simulation results calibrated with Rosenbrock optimization algorithm show a better agreement with the observations than the UA’s 50 % percentiles but slightly worse than the hydrographs from the mode estimates. The results clearly emphasize the importance of using model uncertainty diagnostic approaches in flood simulations.     

Monitoring litter interception of rainfall using leaf wetness sensor under controlled and field conditions

Leaf litter interception of water is an integral component of the water budget for some vegetated ecosystems. However, loss of rainfall to litter receives considerably less attention than canopy interception due to lack of suitable sensors to measure changes in litter water content. In this study, a commercially available leaf wetness sensor was calibrated to the gravimetric water content of eastern redcedar (Juniperus virginiana ) litter and used to estimate litter interception in a subhumid eastern redcedar woodland in north‐central Oklahoma. Under controlled laboratory conditions, a strong positive correlation between the leaf wetness sensor output voltage (mV) and measured gravimetric litter water content (? _g) was determined: ? _g = (.0009 × mV²) ? (0.14 × mV) ? 11.41 (R ² = .94, p  < .0001). This relationship was validated with field sampling and the output voltage (mV) accounted for 48% of the observed variance in the measured water content. The maximum and minimum interception storage capacity ranged between 1.16 and 12.04 and 1.12 and 9.62 mm, respectively. The maximum and minimum amount of intercepted rain was positively correlated to rainfall amount and intensity. The continuous field measurements demonstrated that eastern redcedar litter intercepted approximately 8% of the gross rainfall that fell between December 16, 2014 and May 31, 2015. Therefore, rainfall loss to litter can constitute a substantial component of the annual water budget. Long‐term in situ measurement of litter interception loss is necessary to gain a better estimate of water availability for streamflow and recharge. This is critical to manage water resources in the south‐central Great Plains, USA where grasslands are rapidly being transformed to woodland or woody dominated savanna.     

Finite element analysis and experimental verification of the scrap tire rubber pad isolator

A new base isolation system using scrap tire rubber pads (STRP) has been introduced for seismic mitigation of ordinary residential buildings. The rubber and the steel reinforcing cords used in manufacturing the tire are the alternative materials of the proposed base isolation system. The steel reinforcing cords represent the steel plates used in conventional laminated rubber bearings. These steel reinforcing cords shall prevent the lateral bulging of the rubber bearing. The proposed base isolation system has no bonding between the superstructure and the foundation beam which allows for rollover deformation. In the first part of the study, the STRP layers were just stacked one on top of another without applying the adhesive. This paper presents loading test as well as finite element analysis (FE analysis) of strip STRP isolators that are subjected to any given combination of static vertical and lateral loads. The results of the static vertical and horizontal loading test conducted on STRP isolators were used to calculate the mechanical properties of the isolators, including stiffness and damping values. The load–displacement relationship of STRP isolators were compared between experimental and FE analysis results and the results were found to be in close agreement. The stress state within the STRP isolators was also analyzed in order to estimate the maximum stress demand in the rubber and steel reinforcing cords. These STRP isolators have several advantages over conventional laminated rubber bearings including superior damping properties, lower incurred cost, light weight and easily available material. This study suggests that using the STRP as low cost base isolation device for ordinary residential buildings is feasible.     

On conformity of the EEJ based ionospheric model to the fountain effect and resulting improvements

The total electron content (TEC) of the equatorial ionosphere is controlled by photochemical processes as well as the transport of the ionospheric plasma near the magnetic equator. The transport phenomenon is initiated by the vertical drift driven by the eastward electric field, which also drives the Equatorial Electrojet. The empirical relation between the Equatorial Electrojet and the anomaly component of the equatorial TEC has already been established. Taking this relation as a reference, a simplified physical model of the anomaly component of equatorial TEC is obtained as a function of Equatorial Electrojet. Influence of other factors like the solar incidence angle and the solar flux are also considered here and the extent of their influence are also investigated. This has been done using TEC data obtained from dual frequency GPS receivers during the low solar activity period of 2005. The derived model is based on the physics of the underlying fountain effect and matches with the observed empirical relation to a fair extent. Obtained results are found to corroborate with previous findings and these physical model values are found to have improved correlation with the observed data than the reference empirical relation. This establishes the conformity between the EEJ based ionospheric model and the physical phenomenon of the fountain effect.     

Monthly prediction of rainfall over India and its homogeneous zones during monsoon season: a supervised principal component regression approach on general circulation model products

A supervised principal component regression (SPCR) technique has been employed on general circulation model (GCM) products for developing a monthly scale deterministic forecast of summer monsoon rainfall (June–July–August–September) for different homogeneous zones and India as a whole. The time series of the monthly observed rainfall as the predictand variable has been used from India Meteorological Department gridded (1°?×?1°) rainfall data. Lead 0 (forecast initialized in the same month) monthly products from GCMs are used as predictors. The sources of these GCMs are International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, National Center for Environmental Prediction, and Japan Agency for Marine Earth Science and Technology. The performance of SPCR technique is judged against simple ensemble mean of GCMs (EM) and it is found that over almost all the zones the SPCR model gives better skill than EM in June, August, and September months of monsoon. The SPCR technique is able to capture the year to year observed rainfall variability in terms of sign as well as the magnitude. The independent forecasts of 2007 and 2008 are also analyzed for different monsoon months (Jun–Sep) in homogeneous zones and country. Here, 1982–2006 have been considered as development year or training period. Results of the study suggest that the SPCR model is able to catch the observational rainfall over India as a whole in June, August, and September in 2007 and June, July, and August in 2008.     

Concentration of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) in sediment cores of Sundarban mangrove wetland, northeastern part of Bay of Bengal (India)

The paper presents the first comprehensive survey of congener profiles (12 congeners) of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) in core sediment samples (<63 microm) covering seven sites in Sundarban mangrove wetland (India). Gas-chromatographic analyses were carried out in GC-Ms/Ms for tri- to hepta- brominated congeners. Results pointed out a non-homogenous contamination of the wetland with summation operator(12) PBDE values ranging from 0.08 to 29.03 ngg(-1), reflecting moderate to low contamination closely in conformity to other Asian aquatic environments. The general order of decreasing congener contribution to the total load was: BDE 47>99>100>154, similar to the distribution pattern worldwide. Although tetrabromodiphenyl ether BDE 47 was found in all samples followed by hexabromodiphenyl ether BDE-154, they were not necessarily the dominant congeners. No uniform temporal trend on PBDE levels was recorded probably due to particular hydrological characteristics of the wetland and/on non-homologous inputs from point sources (untreated municipal wastewater and local industries, electronic wastes from the dump sites, etc.) of these compounds. Because of the propensity of PBDEs to accumulate in various compartments of wildlife and human food webs, evaluation of biological tissues should be undertaken as a high priority.     

Coastal aquifer assessment based on geological and geophysical survey,northwestern Crete,Greece

Groundwater preservation comprises a major problem in water policy. The comprehension of the groundwater/hydraulic systems can provide the means to approach this problem. Generally, drilling is expensive and time-consuming. On the other hand, new techniques have been applied during the last few decades that provide useful information on the depth and quality of aquifers. Among them, transient electromagnetic method (TEM) is an appealing method that provides fast results with minimum field crew and solves several hydrogeological problems. Many portable systems for single-site measurements are commercially available. The TEM-Fast 48HPC was used for acquiring 106 soundings in the northwestern Crete in Greece for defining the hydrogeological characteristics of the study area, since there were no available data from boreholes. Detailed geological, hydrolithological and tectonic survey was applied prior to the geophysical measurements. All the data were integrated to produce a secure and reliable hydrogeological model for the study area prior to any future hydrowell. Specifically, geometrical and hydraulic data of the study area groundwater were acquired. Two unconnected aquifers were detected and their possible contamination due to saltwater intrusion was analyzed and eliminated. Moreover, a location for borehole construction and groundwater pumping based on the potential of the aquifer system was proposed. Finally, the contribution of TEM (and electrical resistivity tomography) geophysical methods in studying complex coastal aquifers is shown by this work.     

ASH-source in an elastic half-space with a non-homogeneous surface layer

Summary The response of an elastic half-space with a non-homogeneous surface layer due to aSH-source operating in the non-homogeneous layer of an elastic half-space have been studied. The elastic and physical constants vary exponentially in the surface layer. The surface displacement consists of several integrals. On approximate evaluation of these integrals, they are identified as direct or reflected pulses.