Forecasting of cyclone Viyaru and Phailin by NWP-based cyclone prediction system (CPS) of IMD – an evaluation

An objective NWP-based cyclone prediction system (CPS) was implemented for the operational cyclone forecasting work over the Indian seas. The method comprises of five forecast components, namely (a) Cyclone Genesis Potential Parameter (GPP), (b) Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) technique for cyclone track prediction, (c) cyclone intensity prediction, (d) rapid intensification, and (e) predicting decaying intensity after the landfall. GPP is derived based on dynamical and thermodynamical parameters from the model output of IMD operational Global Forecast System. The MME technique for the cyclone track prediction is based on multiple linear regression technique. The predictor selected for the MME are forecast latitude and longitude positions of cyclone at 12-hr intervals up to 120 hours forecasts from five NWP models namely, IMD-GFS, IMD-WRF, NCEP-GFS, UKMO, and JMA. A statistical cyclone intensity prediction (SCIP) model for predicting 12 hourly cyclone intensity (up to 72 hours) is developed applying multiple linear regression technique. Various dynamical and thermodynamical parameters as predictors are derived from the model outputs of IMD operational Global Forecast System and these parameters are also used for the prediction of rapid intensification. For forecast of inland wind after the landfall of a cyclone, an empirical technique is developed. This paper briefly describes the forecast system CPS and evaluates the performance skill for two recent cyclones Viyaru (non-intensifying) and Phailin (rapid intensifying), converse in nature in terms of track and intensity formed over Bay of Bengal in 2013. The evaluation of performance shows that the GPP analysis at early stages of development of a low pressure system indicated the potential of the system for further intensification. The 12-hourly track forecast by MME, intensity forecast by SCIP model and rapid intensification forecasts are found to be consistent and very useful to the operational forecasters. The error statistics of the decay model shows that the model was able to predict the decaying intensity after landfall with reasonable accuracy. The performance statistics demonstrates the potential of the system for improving operational cyclone forecast service over the Indian seas.     

Liquefaction of soil in the Emilia-Romagna region after the 2012 Northern Italy earthquake sequence

At the end of May 2012, the Po plain region in northern Italy was shaken by a long sequence of seismic events. The 2012 Northern Italy earthquake sequence counted two mainshocks, about 1,600 aftershocks and lasted for several weeks. Although the mainshocks, which occurred on May 20 and May 29, 2012, registered a moment magnitude of 5.9 and 5.8, respectively, these two events caused widespread soil liquefaction and substantial damages to the built environment. This paper reports lessons learnt from a field investigation conducted in the areas affected by the earthquake sequence. Based on the field observations, it was concluded that despite the relatively low magnitudes of the shocks, most of the damages occurred as a consequence of liquefaction phenomena and/or absence of retrofitting of historical structures. The latter comprise churches, tower bells, towers, castles and fortresses. It was found that the occurrence of liquefaction was mainly associated with the presence of saturated alluvial soil deposits which were characterised by high liquefaction susceptibility. It was noted that these highly liquefiable soils were mainly located in proximity of ancient river courses that were artificially diverted in the eighteenth century to mitigate flooding and other hydrological risks.     

Petrogenesis of chromites from the Manipur ophiolite belt,NE India: evidence for a supra-subduction zone setting prior to Indo-Myanmar collision

The Manipur ophiolite belt within the Western Ophiolite Belt of the Indo-Myanmar Ranges (IMR), consists of tectonised to massive serpentinised peridotite, dunite pods, chromitite pods/lenses, cumulates, dykes, volcanic rocks and pelagic sediments. Chromitite pods and lenses hosted in peridotitic mantle rocks show magmatic textures, post magmatic brecciation and ferritchromitisation. Electron microprobe analyses show two types of massive chromitite, with one group having high-Cr (Cr# 75–76), medium-Al (Al₂O₃ 12.2–12.4 wt%) chromites (Sirohi-type) and the other group (Gamnom-type) having a wide range of compositions with generally lower Cr and higher Al (Cr# 65–71, Al₂O₃ 15.7–19 wt%). Accessory chromites in peridotitic mantle rocks have consistently low Cr (Cr# 38–39) and high Al (Al₂O₃ 34–35 wt%), whereas chromites in dunite pods have intermediate compositions (Cr# ~60; Al₂O₃ 20.7–21.2 wt%). The chromite chemistry suggests moderate (20 %) partial melting of the tectonised mantle harzburgite. The estimated Al₂O_3melt, (FeO/MgO)_melt and TiO_2melt for the Sirohi-type chromites indicate boninitic parentage, whereas chromite compositions from the Gamnom area suggest mixed boninitic—island arc tholeiitic magmas. The compositions of magmatic chromites suggest that the Manipur ophiolite was formed in a supra-subduction zone (SSZ) setting.     

Gamma rays from millisecond pulsars

We estimate the contribution of millisecond pulsars to the diffuse gamma-ray background of the Galaxy, and show that a significant fraction of the Galactic background may originate from them. A small number of the unidentified COS-B point sources may, in fact, be millisecond pulsars. It is argued that several hundred millisecond pulsars may be detectable as point sources by the GRO satellite A preliminary version of these results was presented at the NATO Advanced Study Institute on Neutron stars, AGNs and Jets, Erice, September 5–17, 1988. On leave from Raman Research Institute, Bangalore, India.     

Evaluating along‐strike variation using thin‐bedded facies analysis,Upper Cretaceous Ferron Notom Delta,Utah

Thin‐bedded delta‐front and prodelta facies of the Upper Cretaceous Ferron Notom Delta Complex near Hanksville in southern Utah, USA, show significant along‐strike facies variability. Primary initiation processes that form these thin beds include surge‐type turbidity currents, hyperpycnal flows and storm surges. The relative proportion of sedimentary structures generated by each of these depositional processes/events has been calculated from a series of measured sedimentological sections within a single parasequence (PS6–1) which is exposed continuously along depositional strike. For each measured section, sedimentological data including grain size, lithology, bedding thickness, sedimentary structures and ichnological suites have been documented. Parasequence 6–1 shows a strong along‐strike variation with a wave‐dominated environment in the north, passing abruptly into a fluvial‐dominated area, then to an environment with varying degrees of fluvial and wave influence southward, and back to a wave‐dominated environment further to the south‐east. The lateral facies variations integrated with palaeocurrent data indicate that parasequence 6–1 is deposited as a storm‐dominated symmetrical delta with a large river‐dominated bayhead system linked to an updip fluvial feeder valley. This article indicates that it is practical to quantify the relative importance of depositional processes and determine the along‐strike variation within an ancient delta system using thin‐bedded facies analysis. The wide range of vertical stratification and grading sequences present in these event beds also allows construction of conceptual models of deposition from turbidity currents (i.e. surge‐type turbidity currents and hyperpycnal flows) and storm surges, and shows that there are significant interactions and linkages of these often paired processes.     

Effect of sample pretreatment and size fraction on the δ18O and δ13C values of foraminifera in Arabian Sea sediments

Stable oxygen and carbon isotope ratios (δ¹⁸O and δ¹³C, respectively) of a planktonic foraminiferal species (Globigerinoides sacculifer) and marble carbonate were measured with and without a variety of pretreatments like ultrasonication, soaking in H₂O₂, methanol and roasting under vacuum. Additionally, organic matter - carbonate mixtures were also analysed with and without the above pretreatments. No significant difference was found in the isotope ratios of treated and untreated samples. It appears that most of the pretreatments may not be necessary when dealing with planktonic foraminifera, especially G. sacculifer. Analysis of two different size fractions (> 400 μm and 250–400 μm) of this species reveals that the smaller size fraction is enriched in ¹⁸O and depleted in ¹³C relative to the bigger size fraction. It is therefore necessary to choose a proper size fraction for isotopic analyses.     

On the supernova remnants produced by pulsars

We conclude that pulsar-driven supernova remnants (SNRs) are extremely rare objects. Indeed an analysis of the known sample of plerions suggests a very low birthrate ∼ 1 in 240 years. Long-lived and bright plerions like the Crab nebula are likely to be produced only when the pulsar has an initial period ∼ 10–20 milliseconds and a field ∼ 10¹² G. Such pulsars inside rapidly expanding shell remnants should also produce detectable plerions. The extreme rarity of SNRs with such hybrid morphology leads us to conclude that these pulsars must have been born with an initial period larger than ∼ 35–70 milliseconds. Joint Astronomy Program, Department of Physics, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore 560012.     

Quasi-viscous accretion flow – I. Equilibrium conditions and asymptotic behaviour

In a novel approach to studying viscous accretion flows, viscosity has been introduced as a perturbative effect, involving a first-order correction in the α-viscosity parameter. This method reduces the problem of solving a second-order non-linear differential equation (Navier–Stokes equation) to that of an effective first-order equation. Viscosity breaks down the invariance of the equilibrium conditions for stationary inflow and outflow solutions, and distinguishes accretion from wind. Under a dynamical systems classification, the only feasible critical points of this 'quasi-viscous' flow are saddle points and spirals. On large spatial scales of the disc, where a linearized and radially propagating time-dependent perturbation is known to cause a secular instability, the velocity evolution equation of the quasi-viscous flow has been transformed to bear a formal closeness with Schrödinger's equation with a repulsive potential. Compatible with the transport of angular momentum to the outer regions of the disc, a viscosity-limited length-scale has been defined for the full spatial extent over which the accretion process would be viable.     

Members of the double pulsar system PSR J0737-3039: Neutron stars or strange stars?

One interesting method of constraining the dense matter Equations of State is to measure the advancement of the periastron of the orbit of a binary radio pulsar (when it belongs to a double neutron star system). There is a great deal of interest on applicability of this procedure to the double pulsar system PSR J0737-3039 (A/B). Although the above method can be applied to PSR A in future within some limitations, for PSR B this method cannot be applied. On the other hand, the study of genesis of PSR B might be useful in this connection and its low mass might be an indication that it could be a strange star.