Calibration of paired watersheds: Utility of moving sums in presence of externalities

Historically, paired watershed studies have been used to quantify the hydrological effects of land use and management practices by concurrently monitoring 2 similar watersheds during calibration (pretreatment) and post‐treatment periods. This study characterizes seasonal water table and flow response to rainfall during the calibration period and tests a change detection technique of moving sums of recursive residuals (MOSUM) to select calibration periods for each control–treatment watershed pair when the regression coefficients for daily water table elevation were most stable to minimize regression model uncertainty. The control and treatment watersheds were 1 watershed of 3–4‐year‐old intensely managed loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.) with natural understory, 1 watershed of 3–4‐year‐old loblolly pine intercropped with switchgrass (Panicum virgatum), 1 watershed of 14–15‐year‐old thinned loblolly pine with natural understory (control), and 1 watershed of switchgrass only. The study period spanned from 2009 to 2012. Silvicultural operational practices during this period acted as external factors, potentially shifting hydrologic calibration relationships between control and treatment watersheds. MOSUM results indicated significant changes in regression parameters due to silvicultural operations and were used to identify stable relationships for water table elevation. None of the calibration relationships developed using this method were significantly different from the classical calibration relationship based on published historical data. We attribute that to the similarity of historical and 2010–2012 leaf area index on control and treatment watersheds as moderated by the emergent vegetation. Although the MOSUM approach does not eliminate the need for true calibration data or replace the classic paired watershed approach, our results show that it may be an effective alternative approach when true data are unavailable, as it minimizes the impacts of external disturbances other than the treatment of interest.     

Groundwater recharge in an arid grassland as indicated by soil chloride profile and multiple tracers

Previous studies have shown that shallow groundwater in arid regions is often not in equilibrium with near‐surface boundary conditions due to human activities and climate change. This is especially the case where the unsaturated zone is thick and recharge rate is limited. Under this nonequilibrium condition, the unsaturated zone solute profile plays an important role in estimating recent diffuse recharge in arid environments. This paper combines evaluation of the thick unsaturated zone with the saturated zone to investigate the groundwater recharge of a grassland in the arid western Ordos Basin, NW China, using the soil chloride profiles and multiple tracers (²H, ¹⁸O, ¹³C, ¹⁴C, and water chemistry) of groundwater. Whereas conventional water balance and Darcy flux measurements usually involve large errors in recharge estimations for arid areas, chloride mass balance has been widely and generally successfully used. The results show that the present diffuse recharge beneath the grassland is 0.11–0.32 mm/year, based on the chloride mass balance of seven soil profiles. The chloride accumulation age is approximately 2,500 years at a depth of 13 m in the unsaturated zone. The average Cl content in soil moisture in the upper 13 m of the unsaturated zone ranges from 2,842 to 7,856 mg/L, whereas the shallow groundwater Cl content ranges from 95 to 351 mg/L. The corrected ¹⁴C age of shallow groundwater ranges from 4,327 to 29,708 years. Stable isotopes show that the shallow groundwater is unrelated to modern precipitation. The shallow groundwater was recharged during the cold and wet phases of the Late Pleistocene and Holocene humid phase based on palaeoclimate, and consequently, the groundwater resources are nonrenewable. Due to the limited recharge rate and thick unsaturated zone, the present shallow groundwater has not been in hydraulic equilibrium with near‐surface boundary conditions in the past 2,500 years.     

New P–T constraints on the Tamayen glaucophane‐bearing rocks,eastern Taiwan: Perple_X modelling results and geodynamic implications

New pseudosection modelling was applied to better constrain the P–T conditions and evolution of glaucophane‐bearing rocks in the Tamayen block of the Yuli belt, recognized as the world's youngest known blueschist complex. Based on the predominant clinoamphibole, textural relationships, and mineral compositions, these glaucophane‐bearing high‐P rocks can be divided into four types. We focused on the three containing garnet. The chief phase assemblages are (in decreasing mode): amphibole + quartz + epidote + garnet + chlorite + rutile/titanite (Type‐I), phengite + amphibole + quartz + garnet + chlorite + epidote + titanite + biotite + magnetite (Type‐II), and amphibole + quartz + albite + epidote + garnet + rutile + hematite + titanite (Type‐III). Amphibole exhibits compositional zoning from core to rim as follows: glaucophane → pargasitic amphibole → actinolite (Type‐I), barroisite → Mg‐katophorite/taramite → Fe‐glaucophane (Type‐II), glaucophane → winchite (Type‐III). Using petrographic data, mineral compositions and Perple_X modelling (pseudosections and superimposed isopleths), peak P–T conditions were determined as 13 ± 1 kbar and 550 ± 40 °C for Type‐I, 10.5 ± 0.5 kbar and 560 ± 30 °C for Type‐II (thermal peak) and 11 ± 1 kbar and 530 ± 30 °C for Type‐III. The calculations yield higher pressures and temperatures than previously thought; the difference is ~1–6 kbar and 50–200 °C. The three rock types record similar P–T retrograde paths with clockwise trajectories; all rocks followed trajectories with substantial pressure decrease under near‐isothermal conditions (Type‐I and Type‐III), with the probable exception of Type‐II where decompression followed colder geotherms. The P–T paths suggest a tectonic environment in which the rocks were exhumed from maximum depths of ~45 km within a subduction channel along a relative cold geothermal gradient of ~11–14 °C km^?1.     

Intragrain oxygen isotope zoning in titanite by SIMS: Cooling rates and fluid infiltration along the Carthage‐Colton Mylonite Zone,Adirondack Mountains,NY, USA

Oxygen isotopes are an attractive target for zoning studies because of the ubiquity of oxygen‐bearing minerals and the dependence of mineral ¹⁸O/¹⁶O ratios on temperature and fluid composition. In this study, subtle intragrain oxygen isotope zoning in titanite is resolved at the 10‐μm scale by secondary ion mass spectrometry. The patterns of δ¹⁸O zoning differ depending on microstructural context of individual grains and reflect multiple processes, including diffusive oxygen exchange, partial recrystallization, grain‐size reduction, and grain growth. Using the chronological framework provided by structural relations, these processes can be related to specific events during the Grenville orogeny. Titanite was sampled from two outcrops within the Carthage‐Colton Mylonite Zone (CCMZ), a long‐lived shear zone that ultimately accommodated exhumation of the Adirondack Highlands from beneath the Adirondack Lowlands during the Ottawan phase (1090–1020 Ma) of the Grenville orogeny. Titanite is hosted in the Diana metasyenite complex, which preserves three sequentially developed fabrics: an early NW‐dipping protomylonitic fabric (S₁) is crosscut by near‐vertical ultramylonitic shear zones (S₂), which are locally reoriented by a NNW‐dipping mylonitic fabric (S₃). Texturally early titanite (pre‐S₂) shows diffusion‐dominated δ¹⁸O zoning that records cooling from peak Ottawan, granulite‐facies conditions. Numerical diffusion models in the program Fast Grain Boundary yield good fits to observed δ¹⁸O profiles for cooling rates of 50 ± 20 °C Ma^?1, which are considerably faster than the 1–5 °C Ma^?1 cooling rates previously inferred for the Adirondack Highlands from regional thermochronology. High cooling rates are consistent with an episode of rapid shearing and exhumation along the CCMZ during gravitational collapse of the Ottawan orogen at c. 1050 Ma. Texturally later titanite (syn‐S₂) has higher overall δ¹⁸O and shows a transition from diffusion‐dominated to recrystallization‐dominated δ¹⁸O zoning, indicating infiltration of elevated‐δ¹⁸O fluids along S₂ shear zones and continued shearing below the blocking temperature for oxygen (~≤500 °C for grain sizes at the study site). The texturally latest titanite (post‐S₃) has growth‐dominated δ¹⁸O zoning, consistent with porphyroblastic grain growth following cessation of shearing along the Harrisville segment of the CCMZ.     

Fire and vegetation shifts in the Americas at the vanguard of Paleoindian migration

Across North and South America, the final millennia of the Pleistocene saw dramatic changes in climate, vegetation, fauna, fire regime, and other local and regional paleo-environmental characteristics. Rapid climate shifts following the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) exerted a first-order influence, but abrupt post-glacial shifts in vegetation composition, vegetation structure, and fire regime also coincided with human arrival and transformative faunal extinctions in the Americas. We propose a model of post-glacial vegetation change in response to climatic drivers, punctuated by local fire regime shifts in response to megaherbivore-driven fuel changes and anthropogenic ignitions. The abrupt appearance of humans, disappearance of megaherbivores, and resulting changes in New World fire systems were transformative events that should not be dismissed in favor of climate-only interpretations of post-glacial paleo-environmental shifts in the Americas. Fire is a mechanism by which small human populations can have broad impacts, and growing evidence suggests that early anthropogenic influences on regional, even global, paleo-environments should be tested alongside other potential causal mechanisms.     

Dams on the Mekong River: Lost fish protein and the implications for land and water resources

Proposed dam construction in the Lower Mekong Basin will considerably reduce fish catch and place heightened demands on the resources necessary to replace lost protein and calories. Additional land and water required to replace lost fish protein with livestock products are modelled using land and water footprint methods. Two main scenarios cover projections of these increased demands and enable the specific impact from the main stem dam proposals to be considered in the context of basin-wide hydropower development. Scenario 1 models 11 main stem dams and estimates a 4–7% increase overall in water use for food production, with much higher estimations for countries entirely within the Basin: Cambodia (29–64%) and Laos (12–24%). Land increases run to a 13–27% increase. In scenario 2, covering another 77 dams planned in the Basin by 2030 and reservoir fisheries, projections are much higher: 6–17% for water, and 19–63% for land. These are first estimates of impacts of dam development on fisheries and will be strongly mediated by cultural and economic factors. The results suggest that basic food security is potentially at a high risk of disruption and therefore basin stakeholders should be fully engaged in strategies to offset these impacts.     

Some observations and characteristics of lightning ground discharges in southern Ontario

Abstract

Lightning ground flash and stroke observations were made with a single‐station gated, wideband magnetic direction‐finding system with a nominal range of 180 km located in Southern Ontario during the May‐September lightning‐active seasons of 1982 and 1983. Information was recorded on the azimuth of arrival, time, amplitude, stroke multiplicity and order, and polarity. The local climatology and seasonal statistics of lightning are analysed and summarized, and compared with standard observations of thunderstorm days and hours. Regional daily flashing rates and extremes for periods of 5 to 60 min were found to have a good empirical relationship. About 15% of the flashes had multiple strokes, generally less than 10 but with as many as 14 strokes. About 8% of the flashes were positive discharges; 3% of these were multistroke with no more than 2 strokes.

The lightning activity exhibits well defined diurnal peaks in the afternoon and at night 1–3 h before sunrise. The time interval between strokes was found to have a lognormal distribution with modal and median values of 60 and 75 ms, respectively, and no significant dependence on the order of stroke. The stroke‐to‐stroke amplitude changes within the same flash show that subsequent stroke amplitudes are often greater than the first. Subsequent strokes follow many patterns of change, the most common being an amplitude oscillating with ascending stroke order. The multistroke flash duration median values rose from about 80 ms for 2‐stroke flashes to about 650 ms for 8‐stroke flashes.

Under certain assumptions of system detection efficiency and range limits a regional ground flash density of 1.62 and 2.44 km^?2 a^?1 was estimated for the two years.     

A laboratory study of the turbulent ekman layer

Abstract

Comparing characteristics of a turbulent Ekman boundary layer in a rotating apparatus with atmospheric observations and theories, we find that the similarity relations derived by Kazanski and Monin, and others, scale both laboratory and field data quite well, especially considering that the Coriolis parameter is larger by a factor of 10⁵ in the experiment than it is in the atmosphere. Eddy viscosity models and Deardorff's numerical model predict the properties of both with varying degrees of success. High frequency spectra of velocity fluctuations scale with the Kolmogoroff length and time scales. Both magnitude and direction of the surface shear stress were measured directly, with a heated film stress gauge.     

Population structure of two deep sea tubeworms,Lamellibrachia luymesi and Seepiophila jonesi,from the hydrocarbon seeps of the Gulf of Mexico

Vestimentiferan tubeworms are a group of large sessile marine polychaete annelids (family Siboglinidae) found in the regions of hydrothermal venting or seepage of the reduced chemical hydrogen sulfide. Hydrocarbon seeps on the Louisiana Slope of the Gulf of Mexico support large communities of the co-occurring vestimentiferan species Lamellibrachia luymesi and Seepiophila jonesi. These sessile species have the opportunity to disperse between the patchy sites of active seepage on the seafloor during a planktonic larval stage. However, it is unclear whether dispersal occurs at a local or global scale. Four (L. luymesi) and seven (S. jonesi) microsatellite loci were used to test for population substructure among ten hydrocarbon seep sites on the Louisiana Slope. Both species showed high levels of allelic diversity, averaging 18.5 (L. luymesi) and 22 (S. jonesi) alleles/locus, respectively, and high observed heterozygosity at all microsatellite loci (0.71–0.9 in L. luymesi, 0.27–0.84 in S. jonesi). The two species showed a significant deficiency in heterozygotes compared to that predicted under the Hardy–Weinberg equilibrium. L. luymesi showed a small but significant amount of population structure, with a positive correlation between genetic and geographic distance among the sample sites spanning 540 km. S. jonesi, in contrast, showed no evidence for isolation by distance, but did show a significant genetic difference between aggregations of different ages. These results suggest that these two species differ in how larvae are able to colonize new seep sites through space (L. luymesi) and though time (S. jonesi).