Instability model for recurring large and great earthquakes in southern California

The locked section of the San Andreas fault in southern California has experienced a number of large and great earthquakes in the past, and thus is expected to have more in the future. To estimate the location, time, and slip of the next few earthquakes, an earthquake instability model is formulated. The model is similar to one recently developed for moderate earthquakes on the San Andreas fault near Parkfield, California. In both models, unstable faulting (the earthquake analog) is caused by failure of all or part of a patch of brittle, strain-softening fault zone. In the present model the patch extends downward from the ground surface to about 12 km depth, and extends 500 km along strike from Parkfield to the Salton Sea. The variation of patch strength along strike is adjusted by trial until the computed sequence of instabilities matches the sequence of large and great earthquakes sincea.d. 1080 reported by Sieh and others. The last earthquake was theM=8.3 Ft. Tejon event in 1857. The resulting strength variation has five contiguous sections of alternately low and high strength. From north to south, the approximate locations of the sections are: (1) Parkfield to Bitterwater Valley, (2) Bitterwater Valley to Lake Hughes, (3) Lake Hughes to San Bernardino, (4) San Bernardino to Palm Springs, and (5) Palm Springs to the Salton Sea. Sections 1, 3, and 5 have strengths between 53 and 88 bars; sections 2 and 4 have strengths between 164 and 193 bars. Patch section ends and unstable rupture ends usually coincide, although one or more adjacent patch sections may fail unstably at once. The model predicts that the next sections of the fault to slip unstably will be 1, 3, and 5; the order and dates depend on the assumed length of an earthquake rupture in about 1700.     

Spatial characteristics of ocean surface waves

The spatial variability of open ocean wave fields on scales of O (10km) is assessed from four different data sources: TerraSAR-X SAR imagery, four drifting SWIFT buoys, a moored waverider buoy, and WAVEWATCH III^? model runs. Two examples from the open north-east Pacific, comprising of a pure wind sea and a mixed sea with swell, are given. Wave parameters attained from observations have a natural variability, which decreases with increasing record length or acquisition area. The retrieval of dominant wave scales from point observations and model output are inherently different to dominant scales retrieved from spatial observations. This can lead to significant differences in the dominant steepness associated with a given wave field. These uncertainties have to be taken into account when models are assessed against observations or when new wave retrieval algorithms from spatial or temporal data are tested. However, there is evidence of abrupt changes in wave field characteristics that are larger than the expected methodological uncertainties.     

Tsunami damage to coastal defences and buildings in the March 11th 2011 M w 9.0 Great East Japan earthquake and tsunami

On March 11th 2011 a M _w 9.0 mega-thrust interface subduction earthquake, the Great East Japan Earthquake, occurred 130 km off the northeast coast of Japan in the Pacific Ocean at the Japan Trench, triggering tsunami which caused damage along 600 km of coastline. Observations of damage to buildings (including vertical evacuation facilities) and coastal defences in Tōhoku are presented following investigation by the Earthquake Engineering Field Investigation Team (EEFIT) at 10 locations in Iwate and Miyagi Prefectures. Observations are presented in the context of the coastal setting and tsunami characteristics experienced at each location. Damage surveys were carried out in Kamaishi City and Kesennuma City using a damage scale for reinforced concrete (RC), timber and steel frame buildings adapted from an earlier EEFIT tsunami damage scale. Observations show that many sea walls and breakwaters were overtopped, overturned, or broken up, but provided some degree of protection. We show the extreme variability of damage in a local area due to inundation depth, flow direction, velocity variations and sheltering. Survival of many RC shear wall structures shows their high potential to withstand local earthquake and significant tsunami inundation but further research is required into mitigation of scour, liquefaction, debris impact, and the prevention of overturning failure. Damage to steel and timber buildings are also discussed. These observations are intended to contribute to mitigation of future earthquake and tsunami damage by highlighting the key features which influence damage level and local variability of damage sustained by urban coastal infrastructure when subjected to extreme tsunami inundation depths.     

Comments on EPA Guidance for Ground Water Studies

"The panel provided good, solid, interdisciplinary advice on a variety of challenging, state-of-the-art issues."     

Productivity,carbon assimilation and intra-annual change in tropical reef platform seagrass communities of the Torres Strait,north-eastern Australia

Detailed data on seagrass distribution, abundance, growth rates and community structure information were collected at Orman Reefs in March 2004 to estimate the above-ground productivity and carbon assimilated by seagrass meadows. Seagrass meadows were re-examined in November 2004 for comparison at the seasonal extremes of seagrass abundance. Ten seagrass species were identified in the meadows on Orman Reefs. Extensive seagrass coverage was found in March (18,700 ha) and November (21,600 ha), with seagrass covering the majority of the intertidal reef-top areas and a large proportion of the subtidal areas examined. There were marked differences in seagrass above-ground biomass, distribution and species composition between the two surveys. Major changes between March and November included a substantial decline in biomass for intertidal meadows and an expansion in area of subtidal meadows. Changes were most likely a result of greater tidal exposure of intertidal meadows prior to November leading to desiccation and temperature-related stress.     

Magma yield stress and permeability: Insights from multiphase percolation theory

Magmas often contain multiple interacting phases of embedded solid and gas inclusions. Multiphase percolation theory provides a means of modeling assemblies of these different classes of magmatic inclusions in a simple, yet powerful way. Like its single phase counterpart, multiphase percolation theory describes the connectivity of discrete inclusion assemblies as a function of phase topology. In addition, multiphase percolation employs basic laws to distinguish separate classes of objects and is characterized by its dependency on the order in which the different phases appear. This paper examines two applications of multiphase percolation theory: the first considers how the presence of bubble inclusions influences yield stress onset and growth in a magma's crystal network; the second examines the effect of bi-modal bubble-size distributions on magma permeability. We find that the presence of bubbles induces crystal clustering, thereby 1) reducing the percolation threshold, or critical crystal volume fraction, ?_c, at which the crystals form a space-spanning network providing a minimum yield stress, and 2) resulting in a larger yield stress for a given crystal volume fraction above ?_c. This increase in the yield stress of the crystal network may also occur when crystal clusters are formed due to processes other than bubble formation, such as heterogeneous crystallization, synneusis, and heterogeneity due to deformation or flow. Further, we find that bimodal bubble size distributions can significantly affect the permeability of the system beyond the percolation threshold. This study thus demonstrates that larger-scale structures and topologies, as well as the order in which different phases appear, can have significant effects on macroscopic properties in multiphase materials.     

Identifying subsoil sediment sources with carbon and nitrogen stable isotope ratios

Increased sediment loads from accelerated catchment erosion significantly degrade waterways worldwide. In the South East Queensland region of Australia, sediment loads are degrading Moreton Bay, a Ramsar listed wetland of international significance. In this region, like most parts of coastal Australia, sediment is predominantly derived from gully and channel bank erosion processes. A novel approach is presented that uses carbon and nitrogen stable isotope ratios and elemental composition to discriminate between these often indistinguishable subsoil sediment sources. The conservativeness of these sediment properties is first tested by examining the effect of particle size separation (testing for consistency during transport) and the effect of sampling at different times (testing for temporal source consistency). The discrimination potential of these sediment properties is then assessed with the conservative properties, based on the particle size and temporal analyses, modelled to determine sediment provenance in three catchments. Nitrogen sediment properties were found to have significant particle size enrichment and high temporal variance indicative of non‐conservative behaviour. Conversely, carbon stable isotopes had very limited particle size and temporal variability highlighting their suitability for sediment tracing. Channel erosion was modelled to be a significant source of sediment (μ 51%, σ 9%) contrasting desktop modelling research that estimated gully erosion is the predominant sediment source. To limit the supply of sediment to Moreton Bay, channel bank and gully erosion must both be targeted by sediment management programs. By distinguishing between subsoil sediment sources, this approach has the potential to enhance the management of sediment loads degrading waterways worldwide. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Guidelines on the use of structure-from-motion photogrammetry in geomorphic research

As a topographic modelling technique, structure-from-motion (SfM) photogrammetry combines the utility of digital photogrammetry with a flexibility and ease of use derived from multi-view computer vision methods. In conjunction with the rapidly increasing availability of imagery, particularly from unmanned aerial vehicles, SfM photogrammetry represents a powerful tool for geomorphological research. However, to fully realize this potential, its application must be carefully underpinned by photogrammetric considerations, surveys should be reported in sufficient detail to be repeatable (if practical) and results appropriately assessed to understand fully the potential errors involved. To deliver these goals, robust survey and reporting must be supported through (i) using appropriate survey design, (ii) applying suitable statistics to identify systematic error (bias) and to estimate precision within results, and (iii) propagating uncertainty estimates into the final data products. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Feature based image processing methods applied to bathymetric measurements from airborne remote sensing in fluvial environments

Bathymetric maps produced from remotely sensed imagery are increasingly common. However, when this method is applied to fluvial environments, changing scenes and illumination variations severely hinder the application of well established empirical calibration methods used to obtain predictive depth–colour relationships. In this paper, illumination variations are corrected with feature based image processing, which is used to identify areas in an image with a near‐zero water depth. This information can then be included in the depth–colour calibration process, which results in an improved prediction quality. The end product is an automated bathymetric mapping method capable of a 4 m² spatial resolution with a precision of ±15 cm, which allows for a more widespread application of bathymetric mapping. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.