Plesiosaurs

Plesiosaurs are an unusual and intriguing group of extinct aquatic reptiles ( Fig. 1 ). They are sauropterygians, a group known from an array of semi‐aquatic forms during the Triassic period: placodonts, pachypleurosaurs and nothosaurs. The first plesiosaurs are known from the very latest Triassic, but by the Early Jurassic plesiosaurs were cosmopolitan in distribution and lasted successfully to the latest Cretaceous, when they became victims of the K‐T extinction event. Plesiosaurs were predominantly marine organisms, although their fossils are not uncommon in brackish or even fresh water deposits. We know that all plesiosaurs were carnivorous; many of them were top predators in their respective ecosystems. But with no living descendants (or analogues) plesiosaurs are mysterious fossil organisms—as we will see, many questions regarding their biology remain unanswered or contentious. However, plesiosaurs are currently undergoing renewed scientific attention.

Figure 1 Open in figure viewer PowerPoint The beautifully preserved skeleton of the plesiosaur Rhomaleosaurus victor seen in ventral view, from the Lower Jurassic (Toarcian) of Holzmaden, Germany (total length 3.44 m). Redrawn from Fraas (1910).     

Geophysical surveys of the sediments of Loch Ness,Scotland: implications for the deglaciation of the Moray Firth Ice Stream,British–Irish Ice Sheet

We present results from three geophysical campaigns using high‐resolution sub‐bottom profiling to image sediments deposited in Loch Ness, Scotland. Sonar profiles show distinct packages of sediment, providing insight into the loch's deglacial history. A recessional moraine complex in the north of the loch indicates initial punctuated retreat. Subsequent retreat was rapid before stabilisation at Foyers Rise formed a large stillstand moraine. Here, the calving margin produced significant volumes of laminated sediments in a proglacial fjord‐like environment. Subsequent to this, ice retreated rapidly to the southern end of the loch, where it again deposited a sequence of proglacial laminated sediments. Sediment sequences were then disturbed by the deposition of a thick gravel layer and a large turbidite deposit as a result of a jökulhlaup from the Spean/Roy ice‐dammed lake. These sediments are overlain by a Holocene sheet drape. Data indicate: (i) a former tributary of the Moray Firth Ice Stream migrated back into Loch Ness as a major outlet glacier with a calving margin in a fjord‐like setting; (ii) there was significant sediment supply to the terminus of this outlet glacier in Loch Ness; and (iii) that jökulhlaups are important for sediment supply into proglacial fjord/lake environments and may compose >20% of proglacial sedimentary sequences. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Entrainment Rate for Buoyant Plumes in a Crossflow

We consider large-eddy simulations (LES) of buoyant plumes from a circular source with initial buoyancy flux F ₀ released into a stratified environment with constant buoyancy frequency N and a uniform crossflow with velocity U. We make a systematic comparison of the LES results with the mathematical theory of plumes in a crossflow. We pay particular attention to the limits [(U)\tilde] << 1{\tilde{U}\ll1} and [(U)\tilde] >> 1{\tilde{U}\gg 1}, where [(U)\tilde]=U/(F₀ N)^1/4{\tilde{U}=U/(F_0 N)^{1/4}}, for which analytical results are possible. For [(U)\tilde] >> 1{\tilde{U}\gg 1}, the LES results show good agreement with the well-known two-thirds law for the rise in height of the plume. Sufficiently far above the source, the centreline vertical velocity of the LES plumes is consistent with the analytical z ^−1/3 and z ^−1/2 scalings for respectively [(U)\tilde] << 1{\tilde{U}\ll 1} and [(U)\tilde] >> 1{\tilde{U}\gg 1}. In the general case, where the entrainment is assumed to be the sum of the contributions from the horizontal and vertical velocity components, we find that the discrepancy between the LES data and numerical solutions of the plume equations is largest for [(U)\tilde]=O(1){\tilde{U}=O(1)}. We propose a modified additive entrainment assumption in which the contributions from the horizontal and vertical velocity components are not equally weighted. We test this against observations of the plume generated by the Buncefield fire in the U.K. in December 2005 and find that the results compare favourably. We also show that the oscillations of the plume as it settles down to its final rise height may be attenuated by the radiation of gravity waves. For [(U)\tilde] << 1{\tilde{U}\ll 1} the oscillations decay rapidly due to the transport of energy away from the plume by gravity waves. For ${\tilde{U}>rsim 1}${\tilde{U}>rsim 1} the gravity waves travel in the same direction and at the same speed as the flow. In this case, the oscillations of the plume do not decay greatly by radiation of gravity waves.     

A proposal for a new scenario framework to support research and assessment in different climate research communities

In this paper, we propose a scenario framework that could provide a scenario “thread” through the different climate research communities (climate change – vulnerability, impact, and adaptation - and mitigation) in order to support assessment of mitigation and adaptation strategies and climate impacts. The scenario framework is organized around a matrix with two main axes: radiative forcing levels and socio-economic conditions. The radiative forcing levels (and the associated climate signal) are described by the new Representative Concentration Pathways. The second axis, socio-economic developments comprises elements that affect the capacity for mitigation and adaptation, as well as the exposure to climate impacts. The proposed scenarios derived from this framework are limited in number, allow for comparison across various mitigation and adaptation levels, address a range of vulnerability characteristics, provide information across climate forcing and vulnerability states and span a full century time scale. Assessments based on the proposed scenario framework would strengthen cooperation between integrated-assessment modelers, climate modelers and vulnerability, impact and adaptation researchers, and most importantly, facilitate the development of more consistent and comparable research within and across these research communities.     

Dams on the Mekong River: Lost fish protein and the implications for land and water resources

Proposed dam construction in the Lower Mekong Basin will considerably reduce fish catch and place heightened demands on the resources necessary to replace lost protein and calories. Additional land and water required to replace lost fish protein with livestock products are modelled using land and water footprint methods. Two main scenarios cover projections of these increased demands and enable the specific impact from the main stem dam proposals to be considered in the context of basin-wide hydropower development. Scenario 1 models 11 main stem dams and estimates a 4–7% increase overall in water use for food production, with much higher estimations for countries entirely within the Basin: Cambodia (29–64%) and Laos (12–24%). Land increases run to a 13–27% increase. In scenario 2, covering another 77 dams planned in the Basin by 2030 and reservoir fisheries, projections are much higher: 6–17% for water, and 19–63% for land. These are first estimates of impacts of dam development on fisheries and will be strongly mediated by cultural and economic factors. The results suggest that basic food security is potentially at a high risk of disruption and therefore basin stakeholders should be fully engaged in strategies to offset these impacts.     

Harmonization of land-use scenarios for the period 1500�C2100: 600?years of global gridded annual land-use transitions, wood harvest, and resulting secondary lands

In preparation for the fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the international community is developing new advanced Earth System Models (ESMs) to assess the combined effects of human activities (e.g. land use and fossil fuel emissions) on the carbon-climate system. In addition, four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios of the future (2005?C2100) are being provided by four Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) teams to be used as input to the ESMs for future carbon-climate projections (Moss et al. 2010). The diversity of approaches and requirements among IAMs and ESMs for tracking land-use change, along with the dependence of model projections on land-use history, presents a challenge for effectively passing data between these communities and for smoothly transitioning from the historical estimates to future projections. Here, a harmonized set of land-use scenarios are presented that smoothly connects historical reconstructions of land use with future projections, in the format required by ESMs. The land-use harmonization strategy estimates fractional land-use patterns and underlying land-use transitions annually for the time period 1500?C2100 at 0.5°?×?0.5° resolution. Inputs include new gridded historical maps of crop and pasture data from HYDE 3.1 for 1500?C2005, updated estimates of historical national wood harvest and of shifting cultivation, and future information on crop, pasture, and wood harvest from the IAM implementations of the RCPs for the period 2005?C2100. The computational method integrates these multiple data sources, while minimizing differences at the transition between the historical reconstruction ending conditions and IAM initial conditions, and working to preserve the future changes depicted by the IAMs at the grid cell level. This study for the first time harmonizes land-use history data together with future scenario information from multiple IAMs into a single consistent, spatially gridded, set of land-use change scenarios for studies of human impacts on the past, present, and future Earth system.     

Implications of simultaneously mitigating and adapting to climate change: initial experiments using GCAM

Most research on future climate change discusses mitigation and impacts/adaptation separately. However, mitigation will have implications for impacts and adaptation. Similarly, impacts and adaptation will affect mitigation. This paper begins to explore these two veins of research simultaneously using an integrated assessment model. We begin by discussing the types of interactions one might expect by impact sector. Then, we develop a numerical experiment in the agriculture sector to illustrate the importance of considering mitigation, impacts, and adaptation at the same time. In our experiment, we find that climate change can reduce crop yields, resulting in an expansion of cropland to feed a growing population and a reduction in bioenergy production. These two effects, in combination, result in an increase in the cost of mitigation.     

Modelling tropical cyclone risks for present and future climate change scenarios using geospatial techniques

Tropical cyclones and their devastating impacts are of great concern to coastal communities globally. An appropriate approach integrating climate change scenarios at local scales is essential for producing detailed risk models to support cyclone mitigation measures. This study developed a simple cyclone risk-modelling approach under present and future climate change scenarios using geospatial techniques at local scales, and tested using a case study in Sarankhola Upazila from coastal Bangladesh. Linear storm-surge models were developed up to 100-year return periods. A local sea level rise scenario of 0.34?m for the year 2050 was integrated with surge models to assess the climate change impact. The resultant storm-surge models were used in the risk-modelling procedures. The developed risk models successfully identified the spatial extent and levels of risk that match with actual extent and levels within an acceptable limit of deviation. The result showed that cyclone risk areas increased with the increase of return period. The study also revealed that climate change scenario intensified the cyclone risk area by 5–10% in every return period. The findings indicate this approach has the potential to model cyclone risk in other similar coastal environments for developing mitigation plans and strategies.