21st century climate change: where has all the geomorphology gone?

This Commentary draws together recently published work relating to the relationship between climate change and geomorphology to address the surprising observation that geomorphic work seems to have had little impact upon the work of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change. However, recent papers show that methodological innovation has allowed geomorphological reconstruction over timescales highly relevant to late 20th century and 21st century climate change. In turn, these and other developments are allowing links to be made between climatic variability and geomorphology, to begin to predict ‘geomorphic futures’ and also to appreciate the role that geomorphic processes play in the flux of carbon and the carbon cycle. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Tsunami inundation in Napier, New Zealand, due to local earthquake sources

Deterministic analysis of local tsunami generated by subduction zone earthquakes demonstrates the potential for extensive inundation and building damage in Napier, New Zealand. We present the first high-resolution assessments of tsunami inundation in Napier based on full simulation from tsunami generation to inundation and demonstrate the potential variability of onshore impacts due to local earthquakes. In the most extreme scenario, rupture of the whole Hikurangi subduction margin, maximum onshore flow depth exceeds 8.0 m within 200 m of the shore and exceeds 5.0 m in the city centre, with high potential for major damage to buildings. Inundation due to single-segment or splay fault rupture is relatively limited despite the magnitudes of M_W 7.8 and greater. There is approximately 30 min available for evacuation of the inundation zone following a local rupture, and inundation could reach a maximum extent of 4 km. The central city is inundated by up to three waves, and Napier Port could be inundated repeatedly for 12 h. These new data on potential flow depth, arrival time and flow kinematics provide valuable information for tsunami education, exposure analysis and evacuation planning.     

Evaluation of Gaussian approximations for data assimilation in reservoir models

The Bayesian framework is the standard approach for data assimilation in reservoir modeling. This framework involves characterizing the posterior distribution of geological parameters in terms of a given prior distribution and data from the reservoir dynamics, together with a forward model connecting the space of geological parameters to the data space. Since the posterior distribution quantifies the uncertainty in the geologic parameters of the reservoir, the characterization of the posterior is fundamental for the optimal management of reservoirs. Unfortunately, due to the large-scale highly nonlinear properties of standard reservoir models, characterizing the posterior is computationally prohibitive. Instead, more affordable ad hoc techniques, based on Gaussian approximations, are often used for characterizing the posterior distribution. Evaluating the performance of those Gaussian approximations is typically conducted by assessing their ability at reproducing the truth within the confidence interval provided by the ad hoc technique under consideration. This has the disadvantage of mixing up the approximation properties of the history matching algorithm employed with the information content of the particular observations used, making it hard to evaluate the effect of the ad hoc approximations alone. In this paper, we avoid this disadvantage by comparing the ad hoc techniques with a fully resolved state-of-the-art probing of the Bayesian posterior distribution. The ad hoc techniques whose performance we assess are based on (1) linearization around the maximum a posteriori estimate, (2) randomized maximum likelihood, and (3) ensemble Kalman filter-type methods. In order to fully resolve the posterior distribution, we implement a state-of-the art Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method that scales well with respect to the dimension of the parameter space, enabling us to study realistic forward models, in two space dimensions, at a high level of grid refinement. Our implementation of the MCMC method provides the gold standard against which the aforementioned Gaussian approximations are assessed. We present numerical synthetic experiments where we quantify the capability of each of the ad hoc Gaussian approximation in reproducing the mean and the variance of the posterior distribution (characterized via MCMC) associated to a data assimilation problem. Both single-phase and two-phase (oil–water) reservoir models are considered so that fundamental differences in the resulting forward operators are highlighted. The main objective of our controlled experiments was to exhibit the substantial discrepancies of the approximation properties of standard ad hoc Gaussian approximations. Numerical investigations of the type we present here will lead to the greater understanding of the cost-efficient, but ad hoc, Bayesian techniques used for data assimilation in petroleum reservoirs and hence ultimately to improved techniques with more accurate uncertainty quantification.     

The planetesimal bow shock model for chondrule formation: A more quantitative assessment of the standard (fixed Jupiter) case

Abstract– One transient heating mechanism that can potentially explain the formation of most meteoritic chondrules 1–3 Myr after CAIs is shock waves produced by planetary embryos perturbed into eccentric orbits via resonances with Jupiter following its formation. The mechanism includes both bow shocks upstream of resonant bodies and impact vapor plume shocks produced by high‐velocity collisions of the embryos with small nonresonant planetesimals. Here, we investigate the efficiency of both shock processes using an improved planetesimal accretion and orbital evolution code together with previous simulations of vapor plume expansion in the nebula. Only the standard version of the model (with Jupiter assumed to have its present semimajor axis and eccentricity) is considered. After several hundred thousand years of integration time, about 4–5% of remaining embryos have eccentricities greater than about 0.33 and shock velocities at 3 AU exceeding 6 km s^?1, currently considered to be a minimum for melting submillimeter‐sized silicate precursors in bow shocks. Most embryos perturbed into highly eccentric orbits are relatively large—half as large as the Moon or larger. Bodies of this size could yield chondrule‐cooling rates during bow shock passage compatible with furnace experiment results. The cumulative area of the midplane that would be traversed by highly eccentric embryos and their associated bow shocks over a period of 1–2 Myr is <1% of the total area. However, future simulations that consider a radially migrating Jupiter and alternate initial distributions of the planetesimal swarm may yield higher efficiencies.     

Observations and implications of damage from the magnitude Mw 6.3 Christchurch, New Zealand earthquake of 22 February 2011

This paper describes the observations made by a reconnaissance team following the 22nd February 2011, M_w 6.3, Christchurch, New Zealand earthquake (GNS Science, 2011). The team comprised of members of the UK based Earthquake Engineering Field Investigation Team who spent 5 days collecting observations on damage resulting from the earthquake. Although the magnitude of this earthquake was not particularly high (M_w 6.3), the shallow focus and close proximity resulted in locally very high ground motions, widespread damage and 182 fatalities. The earthquake is also particularly notable for the widespread liquefaction it caused, landslides and rockfalls in the hills south of Christchurch, and the significant damage suffered by unreinforced masonry and historic structures. Over wide areas of central Christchurch, recorded accelerations were in excess of those required by the current New Zealand seismic loadings standard (NZS1170.5:2004: Standards New Zealand 2004) and therefore the earthquake presented a valuable opportunity to assess performance of modern buildings under code-level ground acceleration.     

Near real-time geoprocessing on the grid: A scalable approach to road traffic monitoring

The geospatial sensor web is set to revolutionise real-time geospatial applications by making up-to-date spatially and temporally referenced data relating to real-world phenomena ubiquitously available. The uptake of sensor web technologies is largely being driven by the recent introduction of the OpenGIS Sensor Web Enablement framework, a standardisation initiative that defines a set of web service interfaces and encodings to task and query geospatial sensors in near real time. However, live geospatial sensors are capable of producing vast quantities of data over a short time period, which presents a large, fluctuating and ongoing processing requirement that is difficult to adequately provide with the necessary computational resources. Grid computing appears to offer a promising solution to this problem but its usage thus far has primarily been restricted to processing static as opposed to real-time data sets. A new approach is presented in this work whereby geospatial data streams are processed on grid computing resources. This is achieved by submitting ongoing processing jobs to the grid that continually poll sensor data repositories using relevant OpenGIS standards. To evaluate this approach a road-traffic monitoring application was developed to process streams of GPS observations from a fleet of vehicles. Specifically, a Bayesian map-matching algorithm is performed that matches each GPS observation to a link on the road network. The results show that over 90% of observations were matched correctly and that the adopted approach is capable of achieving timely results for a linear time geoprocessing operation performed every 60 seconds. However, testing in a production grid environment highlighted some scalability and efficiency problems. Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) data services were found to present an IO bottleneck and the adopted job submission method was found to be inefficient. Consequently, a number of recommendations are made regarding the grid job-scheduling mechanism, shortcomings in the OGC Web Processing Service specification and IO bottlenecks in OGC data services.     

牙形石SHRIMP微区原位氧同位素分析方法

氧同位素温度计已被用于古温度变化研究多年。生物化石磷酸盐中的氧同位素组成对古气候环境变化响应灵敏,牙形石在古生代到中生代的古海洋地层中广泛存在,并具有较为重要的地层学意义,是研究古温度变化的最佳样品之一。SHRIMP具备高分辨、高灵敏、高精度和微量及原位微区分析的特点,可以进行20μm范围内的原位(in-situ)同位素分析。本文介绍了作者利用SHRIMP IIe-MC建立的牙形石微区原位氧同位素分析方法,这是国内关于该方法的首次报导。本文对磷灰石标准样Durango进行了测定,连续七昼夜获得的253次测定结果,平均值为δ18 Oapatite=9.78‰±0.29‰,与该标准参考值δ18 Oapatite=9.81‰±0.25‰(Williams,未刊资料)一致。作者并以二叠系—三叠系界线上下海水温度变化研究为示范,对采自西藏文布当桑二叠系—三叠系剖面上的49个层位中的237件牙形石样品进行了914个氧同位素分析,为研究二叠系—三叠系界线上发生的生物灭绝事件前后的海水温度变化提供了可靠详实的数据。     

Stratigraphy and tectonics of the Early to Middle Proterozoic transition,Katherine‐El Sherana area,Northern Territory

Abstract

Two unconformity‐bound groups of volcanic rocks and associated sediments (El Sherana and Edith River Groups) separate the older Pine Creek Geosyncline metasediments from platform cover of the McArthur Basin. Dominated by intersecting NW and ENE rift systems, the volcanics are genetically related to an extensional tectonic system which was also active during deposition of the Pine Creek Geosyncline sequence. In contrast, the younger platform cover was deposited in a relatively stable environment. The rift valleys were filled with rhyolite flows, ignimbrite and ill‐sorted arenite and rudite, and flyschoid sediments spread onto adjacent lands. Following tight upright folding, granite intrusion and erosion, an extensive ignimbrite sheet (=6000 km²) spread from a centre probably at the intercept of the two rifts. Microgranite at this intersection was possibly emplaced in the evacuated magma chamber. The volcanic sequences were deeply eroded and weathered before platform cover deposition began. The platform sediments, represented in the area by the Kombolgie Formation, were deposited from about 1690 Ma to 1650 Ma, and their base is taken as the closest stratigraphic indicator of the boundary between the Early and Middle Proterozoic.