A SIMPLE SOIL MOISTURE INDEX TO FORECAST CROP YIELDS

Neutron probe soil moisture measurements obtained biweekly during the growing season between 1982 and 1991 from multiple depths under grass-covered plots at 17 Illinois Climate Network sites are used to forecast crop yields. A Soil Moisture Index (SMIX) that combines the effect of intensity, duration, and timing of drought or excessively wet conditions was computed by integrating the quantity of available soil moisture throughout the rooting zone over the growing season. Relationships between the SMIX values and crop yields are evaluated at county, regional, and statewide scales. Coefficients of determination (r ²) for relationships between the SMIX values and maize, soybeans, and hay yields at the statewide level are 0.88, 0.74, and 0.81, respectively, when the period of integration is terminated at the end of the growing season. This new soil index can be employed to forecast yields as early as 12 weeks before harvest for the state of Illinois. However, predictions with RMSE ≤ 10% of the mean yield can be achieved only for SMIX integration periods ending 5, 9, and 6 weeks before harvest for maize, soybeans, and hay, respectively. Nomograms are presented for using the relationships between the SMIX values and crop yields to forecast Illinois's major crops well before harvest.     

Biogenic silica from the BDP93 drill site and adjacent areas of the Selenga Delta, Lake Baikal, Siberia

Biogenic silica contents of sediments on the lower Selenga Delta and Buguldeika saddle in Lake Baikal show distinct fluctuations that reflect changes in diatom productivity, and ultimately, climate. The pattern of the upper 50 m of the section, dating from about 334 ka, is similar to that of the marine oxygen-isotope record, increasingly so as the younger sediments become progressively finer grained and less locally derived with time. The last two interglaciations are marked by biogenic silica abundances similar to those of the Holocene. The equivalent of marine oxygen-isotope stage 3 is distinctly intermediate in character between full glacial and full interglacial biogenic silica values. Following near-zero values during the last glacial maximum, biogenic silica began to increase at about 13 ka. The rise in biogenic silica to Holocene values was interrupted by an abrupt decrease during Younger Dryas time, about 11 to 10 14C ka.     

Interaction between lateral sorting in river bends and vertical sorting in dunes

Sediment is sorted in river bends under the influence of gravity that pulls the heavier grains downslope and secondary flow that drags the finer grains upslope. Furthermore, when dunes are present, sediment is also sorted vertically at the dune lee side. However, sorting functions are poorly defined, since the relation to transverse bed slope and the interaction between lateral and vertical sorting is not yet understood for lack of data under controlled conditions. The objective of this study is to describe lateral sorting as a function of transverse bed slope and to gain an understanding of the interaction between lateral and vertical sorting in river bends. To this end, experiments were conducted with a poorly sorted sediment mixture in a rotating annular flume in which secondary flow intensity can be controlled separately from the main flow velocity, and therefore transverse bed slope towards the inner bend and dune dimensions can be systematically varied. Sediment samples were taken along cross-sections at the surface of dune troughs and dune crests, and over the entire depth at the location of dune crests (bulk samples), which enabled comparison of the relative contribution of vertical sorting by dunes to lateral sorting by the transverse bed slope. The data show that lateral sorting is always the dominant sorting mechanism in bends, and bulk samples showed minor effects of vertical sorting by dunes as long as all grain-size fractions are mobile. An empirical bend sorting model was fitted that redistributes the available sediment fractions over the cross-section as a function of transverse bed slope. Comparison with field data showed that the model accurately reproduces spatially-averaged trends in sorting at the bend apex in single-thread channels. The bend sorting model therefore provides a better definition of bend sorting with conservation of mass by size fraction and adds to current understanding of bend sorting. The implication for numerical modelling is that bend sorting mechanisms can be modelled independently of dunes, allowing the application of the active layer concept.     

Projecting uncertainty onto marine megafauna trajectories

In this study, a method is proposed for estimating the uncertainty of a Lagrangian pathway calculated from an undersampled ocean surface velocity field. The primary motivation and application for this method is the differentiation between active and passive movements for sea turtles whose trajectories are observed with satellite telemetry. Synthetic trajectories are launched within a reconstructed surface velocity field and integrated forward in time to produce likely trajectories of an actual turtle or drifter. Uncertainties in both the initial conditions at launch and the velocity field along the trajectory are used to yield an envelope of possible synthetic trajectories for each actual trajectory. The juxtaposition of the actual trajectory with the resulting cloud of synthetic trajectories provides a means to distinguish between active and passive movements of the turtle. The uncertainty estimates provided by this model may lead to improvements in our understanding of where and when turtles are engaged in specific behaviors (i.e. migration vs. foraging)—for which potential management efforts may vary accordingly.     

Response of a climate model to tidal mixing parameterization under present day and last glacial maximum conditions

Experiments with a climate model were conducted under present day and last glacial maximum conditions in order to examine the model’s response to a vertical mixing scheme based on internal tide energy dissipation. The increase in internal tide energy flux caused by a 120 m reduction in sea level had the expected effect on diffusivity values, which were higher under lower sea level conditions. The impact of this vertical diffusivity change on the Atlantic meridional overturning is not straightforward and no clear relationship between diffusivity and overturning is found. There exists a weak positive correlation between overturning and changes to the power consumed by vertical mixing. Most of the climatic response generated by sea level change was not related to alterations in the internal tide energy flux but rather to the direct change in sea level itself.     

Pb and other ore metals in modern seafloor tectonic environments: Evidence from melt inclusions

Many modern seafloor tectonic environments are host to hydrothermal systems and associated polymetallic sulfide deposits. Metal transport and precipitation are controlled by magmatic processes such as pre-eruptive degassing and the hydrothermal cycle. The original availability of Pb and other ore metals in a given setting is dependent on concentrations in the original magmatic source or additional enrichment processes. We have examined the Pb budget of melt inclusions from nine modern seafloor settings representing back-arcs, mid-ocean ridges and seamounts. Melt inclusions provide information on the characteristics of parental magmas, including insights into metal budgets. Trace element data in melt inclusions hosted in plagioclase, olivine and pyroxene were obtained by laser-ablation inductively-coupled mass-spectrometry.Results from back-arcs emphasize the impact of slab-subduction and dehydration processes on the chemical characteristics of generated magmas. Volatile- and fluid-mobile element-rich melt inclusions at Manus basin and Okinawa trough reflect a robust contribution of elements from the subducting slab as evidenced by relatively low Ce/Pb ratios. At Bransfield strait, on the other hand, melt inclusions are volatile poor, and fluid-mobile element ratios are similar to mid-ocean ridge values indicating little or no contribution from the slab. High Cu concentrations at Manus basin and Okinawa trough can be explained by fluxing of ferric iron from the subducting slab benefiting the production of sulfate over sulfide.Metal budgets for seamounts located on and nearby the axis of mid-ocean ridge segments appear to be independent of any input of mantle plume material. Results from the southern Explorer ridge (strong lower mantle influence, transitional- and enriched-MORBs), Pito and Axial seamounts (moderate lower mantle influence, transitional-MORBs) and a Foundation near-ridge seamount (little to no mantle influence, normal-MORB) show that, despite similar tectonic environments and varying contributions of mantle plume material, Cu, Zn and Pb values do not vary significantly between the enriched and non-enriched magma components of a given setting.     

Impacts of stormwater discharges on the nearshore benthic environment of Santa Monica Bay

Although large loads of potentially toxic constituents are discharged from coastal urban watersheds, very little is known about the fates and eventual impacts of these stormwater inputs once they enter the ocean. The goal of this study was to examine the effects of stormwater discharges on the benthic marine environment of Santa Monica Bay. Sediment samples were collected across a gradient of stormwater impact following significantly sized storm events offshore Ballona Creek (a predominantly developed watershed) and Malibu Creek (a predominantly undeveloped watershed). Sediments offshore Malibu Creek had a greater proportion of fine-grained sediments, organic carbon, and naturally occurring metals (i.e., aluminum and iron), whereas sediments offshore Ballona Creek had higher concentrations of anthropogenic metals (i.e., lead) and organic pollutants (i.e., total DDT, total PCB, total PAH). The accumulation of anthropogenic sediment contaminants offshore Ballona Creek was evident up to 2 km downcoast and 4 km upcoast from the creek mouth and sediment concentrations covaried with distance from the discharge. Although changes in sediment texture, organic content, and an increase in sediment contamination were observed, there was little or no alteration to the benthic communities offshore either Ballona or Malibu Creek. Both sites were characterized as having an abundance, species richness, biodiversity and benthic response index similar to shallow water areas distant from creek mouths throughout the Southern California Bight. There was not a preponderance of pollution tolerant, nor a lack or pollution sensitive, species offshore either creek mouth.     

Effects of the water-soluble fraction of microbiologically or physically altered crude petroleum on the heterotrophic activity of marine bacteria

Crude petroleum was emulsified or degraded by marine microorganisms and physically altered by an artificial weathering process. Only the water-soluble fraction from emulsified crude petroleum inhibited glutamate uptake by marine microorganisms from South Carolina and Georgia coastal waters. Chloroform extraction recovered almost equal amounts of total hydrocarbon from each water-soluble fraction. Chromatographic data indicated that the composition of microbially emulsified petroleum was similar to that of microbially degraded petroleum. Emulsification of crude petroleum was only observed in summer water samples and did not consistently occur at a given location. Results of this study indicate that the process by which crude petroleum is altered will influence its toxicity to microbial heterotrophic activity.