Vulnerability of population and transportation infrastructure at the east bank of Delaware Bay due to coastal flooding in sea-level rise conditions

Catastrophic flooding associated with sea-level rise and change of hurricane patterns has put the northeastern coastal regions of the United States at a greater risk. In this paper, we predict coastal flooding at the east bank of Delaware Bay and analyze the resulting impact on residents and transportation infrastructure. The three-dimensional coastal ocean model FVCOM coupled with a two-dimensional shallow water model is used to simulate hydrodynamic flooding from coastal ocean water with fine-resolution meshes, and a topography-based hydrologic method is applied to estimate inland flooding due to precipitation. The entire flooded areas with a range of storm intensity (i.e., no storm, 10-, and 50-year storm) and sea-level rise (i.e., current, 10-, and 50-year sea level) are thus determined. The populations in the study region in 10 and 50 years are predicted using an economic-demographic model. With the aid of ArcGIS, detailed analysis of affected population and transportation systems including highway networks, railroads, and bridges is presented for all of the flood scenarios. It is concluded that sea-level rise will lead to a substantial increase in vulnerability of residents and transportation infrastructure to storm floods, and such a flood tends to affect more population in Cape May County but more transportation facilities in Cumberland County, New Jersey.     

A User Interface for the Kansas Geological Survey Slug Test Model

The Kansas Geological Survey (KGS) developed a semianalytical solution for slug tests that incorporates the effects of partial penetration, anisotropy, and the presence of variable conductivity well skins. The solution can simulate either confined or unconfined conditions. The original model, written in FORTRAN, has a text-based interface with rigid input requirements and limited output options. We re-created the main routine for the KGS model as a Visual Basic macro that runs in most versions of Microsoft Excel and built a simple-to-use Excel spreadsheet interface that automatically displays the graphical results of the test. A comparison of the output from the original FORTRAN code to that of the new Excel spreadsheet version for three cases produced identical results.     

Simulation of the 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens using the ash-tracking model PUFF

The dispersal of volcanic ash from the May 18, 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens (MSH) has been simulated using the Lagrangian ash-tracking model PUFF. Previous applications of the model were limited to smaller, short-lived eruptions with ash dispersal occurring mainly within the troposphere. Two high-resolution atmospheric reanalysis datasets (ERA-40 and NCEP/NCAR-40) allowed MSH ash cloud dispersal to be simulated up to 30 km elevation. The 1980 eruption was divided into two distinct eruptive phases, (1) an initial, relatively short-lived blast/surge phase that injected ash up to 30 km and (2) a subsequent nine-hour plinian phase that maintained an average eruption column height of 16 km. Using PUFF, the two phases of the MSH eruption were modeled separately based on a range of individual input parameters and then combined to produce an integrated simulation of the entire eruption. The trajectory and areal extent of the modeled atmospheric ash cloud best match the actual distribution of MSH ash when input parameters are set to values inferred from satellite and radar data collected on May 18, 1980. The prevailing wind field exerts the strongest control on the advection and ultimate position of the modeled ash cloud, making the maximum column height and the vertical distribution of ash the most sensitive of the PUFF input parameters for this event. The results indicate that the PUFF model works well at simulating the dispersal of ash injected well into the lower stratosphere from a moderate, relatively long-lived eruption, such as MSH. However, attempts to use PUFF to recreate some granulometric aspects of the MSH fallout deposit, such as the maximum particle size as a function of distance from source, were not successful. PUFF consistently predicts much greater fallout distances for small ash particles (< 500 µm) than actually observed in the MSH deposit. The effective settling velocities used by the PUFF model appear to be too slow to accurately predict fallout distances of small ash particles. As a consequence the PUFF model may overestimate the duration of ash loading in the atmosphere associated with the distal fine ash component of explosive eruptions.     

Late Tertiary paleoclimatic interpretation from lacustrine rhythmites in the Gray Fossil Site,northeastern Tennessee,USA

The Gray Fossil Site (GFS) includes a small (<2 ha) paleosinkhole lake fill with an exceptionally well-preserved record of sedimentation and fossils from the latest Miocene to earliest Pliocene. The uppermost lacustrine stratigraphy is characterized by rhythmites that regularly alternate between coarse-grained and organic-rich (A) laminae and fine-grained, silty clay (B) laminae. Both the A and B components are almost exclusively comprised of exogenic sediment (including organic matter). Periodicities of 24 and 4.4 are recorded within a continuous 96 interpreted year sequence of rhythmite sediment. In a small lake with a poorly oxygenated bottom, the presence of laterally continuous laminated sediment that includes well-known periodicities in rhythmite thickness is interpreted as representing annually generated varves that correspond to seasonal variations in sedimentation. The distinctly larger fraction of medium sand-size quartz grains present within the A laminae, as well as the abrupt transitions between A and B components suggest that the rhythmites represent deposition during alternating high-energy and lower-energy seasons, which is consistent with a monsoonal precipitation pattern. The seasonal climate may relate to changes in the ocean circulation pattern prior to 4.6 Ma that resulted in an increased temperature and atmospheric pressure gradient between the east coast of North America and the Atlantic Ocean, but this climate phase seems to be only a temporary condition, as underlying and overlying sediment are both consistent with drier conditions. The periodicity at 24 interpreted years is consistent with the well-known Hale solar cycle. The 4.4 interpreted-year periodicity occurs within the ENSO frequency band, and if this documentation of ENSO-like interannual climate change is correct, then it suggests that ENSO operated at times during the warm Earth conditions characterizing the late Tertiary.     

Connectivity of the Apalachicola River flow variability and the physical and bio-optical oceanic properties of the northern West Florida Shelf

Maps of satellite-derived estimates of monthly averaged chlorophyll a concentration over the northern West Florida Shelf show interannual variations concentrated near the coastline, but also extending offshore over the shelf in a tongue-like pattern from the Apalachicola River during the late winter and early spring. These anomalies are significantly correlated with interannual variability in the flow rate of the Apalachicola River, which is linked to the precipitation anomalies over the watershed, over a region extending 150–200 km offshore out to roughly the 100 m isobath. This study examines the variability of the Apalachicola River and its impacts on the variability of water properties over the northern West Florida Shelf. A series of numerical model experiments show that episodic wind-driven offshore transport of the Apalachicola River plume is a likely physical mechanism for connecting the variability of the river discharge with oceanic variability over the middle and outer shelf.     

Chronology building using objective identification of annual signals in trace element profiles of stalagmites

Determination of annual lamination provides important additional constraints to radiometric dates on speleothems, both for dating the duration of specific growth intervals and optimizing growth models. In the absence of visible laminae, however, speleothem age models are reliant upon curve fitting through discretely dated points and are therefore inherently more uncertain than annual chronologies from laminae. Given that the impact of seasonality on speleothems is expected to be strong enough to generate an annual pulse in trace element chemistry regardless of whether or not visible or fluorescent growth laminae are visible, we demonstrate the potential for deriving high-resolution stalagmite chronologies from non-laminated samples using annual chemical variations in stalagmites from two Alpine caves (Obir, Austria and Ernesto, NE Italy). Trace element data were obtained by ion microprobe analyses for H, P, Mg, Na, Sr and Ba and the annual signal was sought using spectral and wavelet analysis. An automated chemical peak-counting software tool was developed in MATLAB^©. It counts significant annual peaks using criteria of minimum amplitude in relation to the local standard deviation of signal variation and minimum separation between peaks determined by the thickness of the preceding layers. Verification of the tool using visibly laminated samples suggests the software is a reliable and accurate method of chronology building, with hit ratios greater than 0.93 and less than 0.75% false alarm occurrences. Used in conjunction with other dating methods such as radiocarbon, U–Th and sulphur peak dating, the automated chemical laminae chronology-building approach provides a more meaningful alternative to simple age-depth curve fitting for non-laminated samples.     

Effects of sediment contaminants and environmental gradients on macrobenthic community trophic structure in Gulf of Mexico estuaries

Macrobenthic communities from estuaries throughout the northern Gulf of Mexico were studied to assess the influence of sediment contaminants and natural environmental factors on macrobenthic community trophic structure. Community trophic data were also used to evaluate whether results from laboratory sediment toxicity tests were effective indicators of site-specific differences in benthic trophic structure. A multiple regression model consisting of five composite factors (principal components) was used to distinguish the effects of sediment contaminants and environmental variables on benthic community trophic structure. This model explained 33.5% of the variation in macrobenthic trophic diversity (p<0.001), a variable derived from the distribution of taxas among nine original trophic categories. A significant negative relatinship was found between principal components reflecting concentrations of sediment contaminants and macrobenthic trophic diversity. Detritivores including surface deposit-feeders (SDF), subsurface deposit-feeders (SSDF), and filter feeders (FF) were numerically dominant at 201 random sites, each group accounting for 25–30% of total macrobenthic abundance. The relative abundance of SDFs was considerably lower (12.1±2.9% to 17.1±4.4%) at sites where sediment contaminant concentrations exceeded minimum biological effects thresholds (ER-L values from Long and Morgan 1990 than at sites sampled at random (29.3±5.7%). SSDFs were proportionally more abundant at contaminated sites (42.0±7.7% to 63.6±10.3%) versus random sites (27.5±5.7%), and the relative abundance of SSDFs was positively correlated with concentrations of particular contaminants. Benthic trophic structure was also found to be a function of salinity, where the proportion of SSDFs was negatively correlated with salinity (p=0.035, r=−0.223, n=326). Silt-clay content loaded fairly strongly on the first principal component, but trophic structure parameters were not significantly correlated with sediment grain size or dissolved oxygen (perhaps due, in part, to covariation). Results from laboratory sediment toxicity tests with mysids were predictive of differences in macrobenthic trophic structure in situ (i.e., mysid survival was negatively correlated with %SSDF; p<0.001, r=−0.292, n=326). Results from laboratory sediment toxicity tests with ampeliscid amphipods were not indicative of site-specific differences in benthic trophic structure.     

Holocene lake sediment records of Arctic hydrology

Although paleoclimatic research in the Arctic has most often focused on variations in temperature, the Arctic has also experienced changes in hydrologic balance. Changes in Arctic precipitation and evaporation rates affects soils, permafrost, lakes, wetlands, rivers, ice and vegetation. Changes in Arctic soils, permafrost, runoff, and vegetation can influence global climate by changing atmospheric methane and carbon dioxide concentrations, thermohaline circulation, and high latitude albedo. Documenting past variations in Arctic hydrological conditions is important for understanding Arctic climate and the potential response and role of the Arctic in regards to future climate change. Methods for reconstructing past changes in Arctic hydrology from the stratigraphic, isotopic, geochemical and fossil records of lake sediments are being developed, refined and applied in a number of regions. These records suggest that hydrological variations in the Arctic have been regionally asynchronous, reflecting the impacts of different forcing factors including orbitally controlled insolation changes, changes in geography related to coastal emergence, ocean currents, sea ice extent, and atmospheric circulation. Despite considerable progress, much work remains to be done on the development of paleohydrological proxies and their application to the Arctic.