Investigating potential future changes in surface water flooding hazard and impact

Surface water flooding (SWF) is a recurrent hazard that affects lives and livelihoods. Climate change is projected to change the frequency of extreme rainfall events that can lead to SWF. Increasingly, data from Regional Climate Models (RCMs) are being used to investigate the potential water-related impacts of climate change; such assessments often focus on broad-scale fluvial flooding and the use of coarse resolution (>12 km) RCMs. However, high-resolution (<4 km) convection-permitting RCMs are now becoming available that allow impact assessments of more localised SWF to be made. At the same time, there has been an increasing demand for more robust and timely real-time forecast and alert information on SWF. In the UK, a real-time SWF Hazard Impact Model framework has been developed. The system uses 1-km gridded surface runoff estimates from a hydrological model to simulate the SWF hazard. These are linked to detailed inundation model outputs through an Impact Library to assess impacts on property, people, transport, and infrastructure for four severity levels. Here, a set of high-resolution (1.5 km and 12 km) RCM data has been used as input to a grid-based hydrological model over southern Britain to simulate Current (1996–2009) and Future (~2100s; RCP8.5) surface runoff. Counts of threshold-exceedance for surface runoff and precipitation (at 1-, 3- and 6-hr durations) are analysed. Results show that the percentage increases in surface runoff extremes, are less than those of precipitation extremes. The higher-resolution RCM simulates the largest percentage increases, which occur in winter, and the winter exceedance counts are greater than summer exceedance counts. For property impacts, the largest percentage increases are also in winter; however, it is the 12-km RCM output that leads to the largest percentage increase in impacts. The added-value of high-resolution climate model data for hydrological modelling is from capturing the more intense convective storms in surface runoff estimates.     

Field investigation of siltation at a tidal harbor: North Port of Incheon,Korea

Ocean Dynamics - To understand siltation processes within the North Port of Incheon, Korea, this study estimated the sedimentation rate and then determined the dominant mechanisms for the...     

Analysis of one-dimensional models for exchange flows under strong stratification

Ocean Dynamics - One-dimensional models of exchange flows driven by horizontal density gradients are well known for performing poorly in situations with weak turbulent mixing. The main issue with...     

Inversion of multicomponent seismic time shifts for reservoir pressure and length: a feasibility study

Pressure drops associated with reservoir production generate excess stress and strain that cause travel‐time shifts of reflected waves. Here, we invert time shifts of P‐, S‐, and PS‐waves measured between baseline and monitor surveys for pressure reduction and reservoir length. The inversion results can be used to estimate compaction‐induced stress and strain changes around the reservoir. We implement a hybrid inversion algorithm that incorporates elements of gradient, global/genetic, and nearest neighbour methods and permits exploration of the parameter space while simultaneously following local misfit gradients. Our synthetic examples indicate that optimal estimates of reservoir pressure from P‐wave data can be obtained using the reflections from the reservoir top. For S‐waves, time shifts from the top of the reservoir can be accurately inverted for pressure if the noise level is low. However, if noise contamination is significant, it is preferable to use S‐wave data (or combined shifts of all three modes) from reflectors beneath the reservoir. Joint wave type inversions demonstrate improvements over any single pure mode. Reservoir length can be estimated using the time shifts of any mode from the reservoir top or deeper reflectors. We also evaluate the differences between the actual strain field and those corresponding to the best‐case inversion results obtained using P‐ and S‐wave data. Another series of tests addresses the inversion of the time shifts for the pressure drops in two‐compartment reservoirs, as well as for the associated strain field. Numerical testing shows that a potentially serious source of error in the inversion is a distortion in the strain‐sensitivity coefficients, which govern the magnitude of stiffness changes. This feasibility study suggests which wave types and reflector locations may provide the most accurate estimates of reservoir parameters from compaction‐induced time shifts.     

Field Investigation of a New Recharge Approach for ASR Projects in Near‐Surface Aquifers

Aquifer storage and recovery (ASR) is the artificial recharge and temporary storage of water in an aquifer when water is abundant, and recovery of all or a portion of that water when it is needed. One key limiting factor that still hinders the effectiveness of ASR is the high costs of constructing, maintaining, and operating the artificial recharge systems. Here we investigate a new recharge method for ASR in near‐surface unconsolidated aquifers that uses small‐diameter, low‐cost wells installed with direct‐push (DP) technology. The effectiveness of a DP well for ASR recharge is compared with that of a surface infiltration basin at a field site in north‐central Kansas. The performance of the surface basin was poor at the site due to the presence of a shallow continuous clay layer, identified with DP profiling methods, that constrained the downward movement of infiltrated water and significantly reduced the basin recharge capacity. The DP well penetrated through this clay layer and was able to recharge water by gravity alone at a much higher rate. Most importantly, the costs of the DP well, including both the construction and land costs, were only a small fraction of those for the infiltration basin. This low‐cost approach could significantly expand the applicability of ASR as a water resources management tool to entities with limited fiscal resources, such as many small municipalities and rural communities. The results of this investigation demonstrate the great potential of DP wells as a new recharge option for ASR projects in near‐surface unconsolidated aquifers.     

Sediment yield of the lower Tana River,Kenya, is insensitive to dam construction: sediment mobilization processes in a semi‐arid tropical river system

Dam construction in the 1960s to 1980s significantly modified sediment supply from the Kenyan uplands to the lower Tana River. To assess the effect on suspended sediment fluxes of the Tana River, we monitored the sediment load at high temporal resolution for 1 year and complemented our data with historical information. The relationship between sediment concentration and water discharge was complex: at the onset of the wet season, discharge peaks resulted in high sediment concentrations and counterclockwise hysteresis, while towards the end of the wet season, a sediment exhaustion effect led to low concentrations despite the high discharge. The total sediment flux at Garissa (c. 250 km downstream of the lowermost dam) between June 2012 and June 2013 was 8.8 Mt yr^‐1. Comparison of current with historical fluxes indicated that dam construction had not greatly affected the annual sediment flux. We suggest that autogenic processes, namely river bed dynamics and bank erosion, mobilized large quantities of sediments stored in the alluvial plain downstream of the dams. Observations supporting the importance of autogenic processes included the absence of measurable activities of the fall‐out radionuclides ⁷Be and ¹³⁷Cs in the suspended sediment, the rapid lateral migration of the river course, and the seasonal changes in river cross‐section. Given the large stock of sediment in the alluvial valley of the Tana River, it may take centuries before the effect of damming shows up as a quantitative reduction in the sediment flux at Garissa. Many models relate the sediment load of rivers to catchment characteristics, thereby implicitly assuming that alterations in the catchment induce changes in the sediment load. Our research confirms that the response of an alluvial river to external disturbances such as land use or climate change is often indirect or non‐existent as autogenic processes overwhelm the changes in the input signal. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Innovative Environmental Tracer Techniques for Evaluating Sources of Spring Discharge from a Carbonate Aquifer Bisected by a River

Littlefield Springs discharge about 1.6 m³/s along a 10‐km reach of the Virgin River in northwestern Arizona. Understanding their source is important for salinity control in the Colorado River Basin. Environmental tracers suggest that Littlefield Springs are a mixture of older groundwater from the regional Great Basin carbonate aquifer and modern (post‐1950s) seepage from the Virgin River. While corrected ¹⁴C apparent ages range from 1 to 9 ka, large amounts of nucleogenic ⁴He and low ³He/⁴He ratios suggest that the carbonate aquifer component is likely even older Pleistocene recharge. Modeled infiltration of precipitation, hydrogeologic cross sections, and hydraulic gradients all indicate recharge to the carbonate aquifer likely occurs in the Clover and Bull Valley Mountains along the northern part of the watershed, rather than in the nearby Virgin Mountains. This high‐altitude recharge is supported by relatively cool noble‐gas recharge temperatures and isotopically depleted δ²H and δ¹⁸O. Excess (crustal) SF₆ and ⁴He precluded dating of the modern component of water from Littlefield Springs using SF₆ and ³H/³He methods. Assuming a lumped‐parameter model with a binary mixture of two piston‐flow components, Cl^?/Br^?, Cl^?/F^?, δ²H, and CFCs indicate the mixture is about 60% Virgin River water and 40% groundwater from the carbonate aquifer, with an approximately 30‐year groundwater travel time for Virgin River seepage to re‐emerge at Littlefield Springs. This suggests that removal of high‐salinity sources upstream of the Virgin River Gorge would reduce the salinity of water discharging from Littlefield Springs into the Virgin River within a few decades.     

Geophysical constraints on deep weathering and water storage potential in the Southern Sierra Critical Zone Observatory

The conversion of bedrock to regolith marks the inception of critical zone processes, but the factors that regulate it remain poorly understood. Although the thickness and degree of weathering of regolith are widely thought to be important regulators of the development of regolith and its water‐storage potential, the functional relationships between regolith properties and the processes that generate it remain poorly documented. This is due in part to the fact that regolith is difficult to characterize by direct observations over the broad scales needed for process‐based understanding of the critical zone. Here we use seismic refraction and resistivity imaging techniques to estimate variations in regolith thickness and porosity across a forested slope and swampy meadow in the Southern Sierra Critical Zone Observatory (SSCZO). Inferred seismic velocities and electrical resistivities image a weathering zone ranging in thickness from 10 to 35 m (average = 23 m) along one intensively studied transect. The inferred weathering zone consists of roughly equal thicknesses of saprolite (P‐velocity < 2 km s^?1) and moderately weathered bedrock (P‐velocity = 2–4 km s^?1). A minimum‐porosity model assuming dry pore space shows porosities as high as 50% near the surface, decreasing to near zero at the base of weathered rock. Physical properties of saprolite samples from hand augering and push cores are consistent with our rock physics model when variations in pore saturation are taken into account. Our results indicate that saprolite is a crucial reservoir of water, potentially storing an average of 3 m³ m^?2 of water along a forested slope in the headwaters of the SSCZO. When coupled with published erosion rates from cosmogenic nuclides, our geophysical estimates of weathering zone thickness imply regolith residence times on the order of 10⁵ years. Thus, soils at the surface today may integrate weathering over glacial–interglacial fluctuations in climate. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Topaz Basin archaeological obsidian source in the transition zone of central Arizona

The Classic Period Migration Project involves the analysis of archaeological sites at Perry Mesa in central Arizona and resulted in the discovery of several small marekanite1 obsidian artifacts that signaled a previously unlocated source. The source was eventually located in the Topaz Basin area of the upper Cienega Creek stream basin, southwest of Camp Verde, Arizona.² While this locality solves the “unknown” sources in the Perry Mesa archaeological assemblage, it has not appeared in the archaeological record of Arizona with any frequency. The glass itself is an excellent medium for tool production, so its near absence in the archaeological record is likely attributable to social/territorial causes as well as limited secondary deposition, and along with other “minor” sources points to the archaeological utility of understanding these smaller sources. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Development of an observational error model

In calculating the orbit of a minor planet with a least-squares algorithm, current practice is to assume that all observations of a given era have the same uncertainty, and that the errors in these observations are uncorrelated. These assumptions are unrealistic; and they lead to sub-optimal orbits.Our objective is to develop and validate an observational error model that provides realistic estimates of the uncertainties and correlations in asteroid observations. When used to populate the covariance matrix of the least-squares algorithm, the resulting orbits are shown to more accurately and precisely represent asteroid trajectories.