A proposal for a new scenario framework to support research and assessment in different climate research communities

In this paper, we propose a scenario framework that could provide a scenario “thread” through the different climate research communities (climate change – vulnerability, impact, and adaptation - and mitigation) in order to support assessment of mitigation and adaptation strategies and climate impacts. The scenario framework is organized around a matrix with two main axes: radiative forcing levels and socio-economic conditions. The radiative forcing levels (and the associated climate signal) are described by the new Representative Concentration Pathways. The second axis, socio-economic developments comprises elements that affect the capacity for mitigation and adaptation, as well as the exposure to climate impacts. The proposed scenarios derived from this framework are limited in number, allow for comparison across various mitigation and adaptation levels, address a range of vulnerability characteristics, provide information across climate forcing and vulnerability states and span a full century time scale. Assessments based on the proposed scenario framework would strengthen cooperation between integrated-assessment modelers, climate modelers and vulnerability, impact and adaptation researchers, and most importantly, facilitate the development of more consistent and comparable research within and across these research communities.     

季节性流感的多元激发理论及其包含气象和社会行为因素的数学模型

为了解流感的季节性和爆发的生物力学机制,在收集、分析、计算全球各地流感监测资料的基础上,建立了流感传播的多元激发理论及相应的数值模式,并运用该模式对全球各大洲不同气候带的季节性流感和周际流感进行了数值模拟和预报尝试。模式近似解的数学表达式以及模式输出与实况高度吻合的模拟结果证明：流感的发病率呈高度自相关,同时受生物、气象环境和社会-行为因素支配;流感的爆发是各种因素协同作用的结果。动力共振、太阳辐射、降水、露点温度变化、行为和干预效应以及人群对优势流行毒株的免疫力是支配流感季节性和每周活动变化的关键因素。具体表现为,对于所有气候区,流感发病率都是降水日数的指数函数,日照时数的1/4次方的负指数函数。在温带和寒带地区,季节性流感的发病率是露点温度的负指数函数。在热带地区,则是露点与其年平均值绝对偏差的指数函数。研究提示：早期干预(例如适时和广泛接种疫苗、迅速隔离病例、停学、遏制早期病例总数等)是控制和预防季节性流感的关键;适量的日光照射或在雨季和日照短的季节补充维生素D、增加户外活动、发布高危天气预警、设定适中的室内露点温度是值得高度重视的预防策略。模式的模拟结果在很大程度上揭示了流感季节性的机理和证明了著名医学家和诺贝尔奖获得者RobeRt EdgaR Hope-Simpson在上世纪提出的流感季节性成因的猜想。模拟结果还表明,模式对每周流感发病率具有一定的预报能力。该理论和模型很可能适用于当前的甲型流感大流行和其它传染性疾病,可被进一步开发应用。     

Application of Dynamic Subgrid-scale Models for Large-eddy Simulation of the Daytime Convective Boundary Layer over Heterogeneous Surfaces

The sensitivity of large-eddy simulation (LES) to the representation of subgrid-scale (SGS) processes is explored for the case of the convective boundary layer (CBL) developing over surfaces with varying degrees of spatial heterogeneity. Three representations of SGS processes are explored: the traditional constant Smagorinsky–Lilly model and two other dynamic models with Lagrangian averaging approaches to calculate the Smagorinsky coefficient (C _S ) and SGS Prandtl number (Pr). With initial data based roughly on the observed meteorology, simulations of daytime CBL growth are performed over surfaces with characteristics (i.e. fluxes and roughness) ranging from homogeneous, to striped heterogeneity, to a realistic representation of heterogeneity as derived from a recent field study. In both idealized tests and the realistic case, SGS sensitivities are mostly manifest near the surface and entrainment zone. However, unlike simulations over complex domains or under neutral or stable conditions, these differences for the CBL simulation, where large eddies dominate, are not significant enough to distinguish the performance of the different SGS models, irrespective of surface heterogeneity.     

Preface: Workshop on matter,astrophysics, gravitation,ions and cosmology—MAGIC23

We outline our experience in organizing the first edition of the Workshop on Matter, Astrophysics, Gravitation, Ions and Cosmology, held in virtual and in-person format, denominated MAGIC23, held from 6 to 10 March, 2023, in Praia do Rosa, Santa Catarina, Brazil. The event aimed to bring together leading academic scientists, professors, students, and research scholars for exchanging experiences and discuss the most recent innovations, trends, practical challenges, and experimental and theoretical solutions adopted in the investigation fields within the scope of the meeting. The workshop offered to the participants a platform for scientific and academic projects, partnerships, and presentation of high-quality research contributions describing original and unpublished results on topics related to matter, astrophysics, gravitation, ions, and cosmology.     

The Ushnus in the astronomy of the Inca culture

Inferences are made about the relationship that existed between the Ushnus, pyramid-shaped, terraced structures used by the Incas in the most important ceremonies of the Tawantinsuyo, and Inka Astronomy. We draw attention to Ayni, Kawsaypacha, Duality, and Tinkuy principles, multidimensional codes of conduct and wisdom that are at the root of the Andean cosmovision and on their perception of the world and the Cosmos. These principles, examined as postulates, allow to elaborate axiomatic propositions to identify the Ushnus with ancient Astronomy practices. In a complementary statement, starting from a bi-conditional proposition, we may infer through reciprocal corollaries that the Inka earliest roots to a holistic learning and educational ambient in the Tawantinsuyo was not elitist, instead it was based on a epistemological construct that differs from the corresponding Western educational ambients. An epistemological and cognitive approach allows to identify an ancient elaborate process of knowledge construction, based on the four fundamental principles, corresponding to different levels of assimilation and comprehension. As a complementary aspect, we identify some of the most preserved Ushnus of the Inka “Empire.” Then we complement this contribution with a broader interpretation for the Ushnus.     

A comparison of local simulations and reduced models of MRI-induced turbulence

We run mean-field shearing-box numerical simulations with a temperature-dependent resistivity and compare them to a reduced dynamical model. Our simulations reveal the co-existence of two quasi-steady states, a 'quiet' state and an 'active' turbulent state, confirming the predictions of the reduced model. The initial conditions determine on which state the simulation ultimately settles. The active state is strongly influenced by the geometry of the computational box and the thermal properties of the gas. Cubic domains support permanent channel flows, bar-shaped domains exhibit eruptive behaviour, and horizontal slabs give rise to infrequent channels. Meanwhile, longer cooling time-scales lead to higher saturation amplitudes.     

Annual cycles in the interstellar scintillation time-scales of PKS B1519–273 and PKS B1622–253

We have used the University of Tasmania's 30-m radio telescope at Ceduna in South Australia to regularly monitor the flux density of a number of southern blazars. We report the detection of an annual cycle in the variability time-scale of the centimetre radio emission of PKS B1622−253. Observations of PKS B1519−273 over a period of nearly 2 yr confirm the presence of an annual cycle in the variability time-scale in that source. These observations prove that interstellar scintillation is the principal cause of inter-day variability at radio wavelengths in these sources. The best-fitting annual cycle model for both sources implies a high degree of anisotropy in the scattering screen and that it has a large velocity offset with respect to the local standard of rest. This is consistent with a greater screen distance for these 'slow' intra-day variability (IDV) sources than for rapid scintillators such as PKS B0405−385 or J1819+3845.     

The origin of refractory minerals in comet 81P/Wild 2

Refractory Ti-bearing minerals in the calcium-, aluminum-rich inclusion (CAI) Inti, recovered from the comet 81P/Wild 2 sample, were examined using analytical (scanning) transmission electron microscopy (STEM) methods including imaging, nanodiffraction, energy-dispersive spectroscopy (EDX) and electron energy loss spectroscopy (EELS). Inti fassaite (Ca(Mg,Ti,Al)(Si,Al)₂O₆) was found to have a Ti³⁺/Ti⁴⁺ ratio of 2.0 ± 0.2, consistent with fassaite in other solar system CAIs. The oxygen fugacity (logf_O2) of formation estimated from this ratio, assuming equilibration among phases at 1509 K, is −19.4 ± 1.3. This value is near the canonical solar nebula value (−18.1 ± 0.3) and in close agreement with that reported for fassaite-bearing Allende CAIs (−19.8 ± 0.9) by other researchers using the same assumptions. Nanocrystals of osbornite (Ti(V)N), 2–40 nm in diameter, are embedded as inclusions within gehlenite, spinel and diopside in Inti. Vanadium is heterogeneously distributed within some osbornite crystals. Compositions range from pure TiN to Ti_0.36V_0.64N. The possible presence of oxide and carbide in solid solution with the osbornite was evaluated. The osbornite may contain O, but C is not present at detectable levels. The presence of osbornite, likely a refractory early condensate, together with the other refractory minerals in Inti, indicates that the parent comet contains solids that condensed closer to the proto-sun than the distance at which the parent comet itself accreted. The estimated oxygen fugacity and the reported isotopic and chemical compositions are consistent with Inti originating in the inner solar system like other meteoritic CAIs. These results provide insight for evaluating the validity of models of radial mass transport dynamics in the early solar system. The oxidation environments inferred for the Inti mineral assemblage are inconsistent with an X-wind formation scenario. In contrast, radial mixing models that allow accretion of components from different heliocentric distances can satisfy the observations from the cometary CAI Inti.     

Sedimentology and luminescence ages of Glacial Lake Humber deposits in the central Vale of York

The sedimentary sequence through the Hemingbrough Formation exposed at two sites in the central part of the Vale of York, south of the Escrick moraine ridge, is described and used to reconstruct the palaeoenvironmental history of Glacial Lake Humber. Interbedded wave ripples and laminated silts and clays at both sites indicate that Lake Humber was characterised by fluctuating water levels, often no deeper than wave base. Optically stimulated luminescence ages of 21.0 ± 1.9, 21.9 ± 2.0, and 24.1 ± 2.2 kyr returned from two wave-rippled sandy beds within the glaciolacustrine sequence at Hemingbrough, c. 10 km south of the Escrick moraine ridge, provide the first direct chronological determination for the low-level phase of Lake Humber. As these beds are principally attributed to glacial meltwater emanating from the Vale of York ice lobe of the British Ice Sheet, when its margin was at or near the Escrick moraine ridge, this corroborates the interpretation that this ridge marks the LGM ice limit.