Global high resolution versus Limited Area Model climate change projections over Europe: quantifying confidence level from PRUDENCE results

Four high resolution atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) have been integrated with the standard forcings of the PRUDENCE experiment: IPCC-SRES A2 radiative forcing and Hadley Centre sea surface temperature and sea-ice extent. The response over Europe, calculated as the difference between the 2071–2100 and the 1961–1990 means is compared with the same diagnostic obtained with nine Regional Climate Models (RCM) all driven by the Hadley Centre atmospheric GCM. The seasonal mean response for 2m temperature and precipitation is investigated. For temperature, GCMs and RCMs behave similarly, except that GCMs exhibit a larger spread. However, during summer, the spread of the RCMs—in particular in terms of precipitation—is larger than that of the GCMs. This indicates that the European summer climate is strongly controlled by parameterized physics and/or high-resolution processes. The temperature response is larger than the systematic error. The situation is different for precipitation. The model bias is twice as large as the climate response. The confidence in PRUDENCE results comes from the fact that the models have a similar response to the IPCC-SRES A2 forcing, whereas their systematic errors are more spread. In addition, GCM precipitation response is slightly but significantly different from that of the RCMs.     

SOME OBSERVATIONS ON THE OLDEST FORMATIONS IN THE PROVINCE OF SHANSI.

The western and north-eastern parts of Shansi Province are districts of typical development of the oldest Pre-Palaeozoic formations. In western Shans these formations are well exposed in the territory midway between the Taiyuan plain and the Yellow River and are bordered on almost all sides by the so-called Shansi Formation of late Palaeozoic age. Near the margin the area of oldest     

Simulation of Orissa Super Cyclone (1999) using PSU/NCAR Mesoscale Model

In this study a non-hydrostatic version of Penn State University (PSU) -- NationalCenter for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) mesoscale model is used to simulate thesuper cyclonic storm that crossed Orissa coast on 29 October 1999. The model isintegrated up to 123 h for producing 5-day forecast of the storm. Several importantfields including sea level pressure, horizontal wind and rainfall are compared with theverification analysis/observation to examine the performance of the model. The modelsimulated track of the cyclone is compared with the best-fit track obtained from IndiaMeteorological Department (IMD) and the track obtained from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. The model is found to perform reasonably well in simulating the track and in particular, the intensity of the storm.     

Geo-Characterization at selected accelerometric stations in Crete (Greece) and comparison of earthquake data recordings with EC8 elastic spectra

To estimate the seismic response according to Eurocode (EC8) and almost all other national codes, site conditions have to be properly characterized so that soil amplification and the corresponding peak ground motion can be calculated. In this work, different geophysical and geotechnical methods are combined in order to define the detailed ground conditions in selected sites of the Hellenic Accelerometric Network (HAN) in Crete. For this purpose, the geological information of the sites and shear wave velocity, calculated from surface wave measurements, is used. Additionally, ground acceleration data recorded through HAN have been utilized from intermediate depth earthquakes in the broader area of South Aegean Sea. Using the recorded ground motion data and the procedure defined in EC8, the corresponding elastic response spectrum is calculated for the selected sites. The resulting information is compared to the values defined in the corresponding EC8 spectrum for the seismic zone that includes the island of Crete. The comparison shows that accurate definition of ground type through geological, geotechnical and geophysical investigations is important. However, our current comparison focuses on the distribution of values rather than the absolute values of EC8-prescribed spectra, and the results should be considered in this context.     

Funkortung und Wellenausbreitung

Zusammenfassung Die Arbeit will auf die heutigen funktechnischen Hilfsmittel der Navigation hinweisen und die Möglichkeit ihrer Beeinflussung durch die Ausbreitung der Funkwellen aufzeigen. Sowohl auf dem Gebiete des Funkmeßverfahrens (Radar) wie auf den weniger bekannten Gebieten der Hyperbelnavigation und der Richtfunkfeuer sind noch viele Einzelheiten über die Brechung der Funkstrahlen, über die Interferenz und Störungen durch Raumwelleneinflüsse und über die effektive Ausbreitungsgeschwindigkeit zu klären, ehe die Schiffahrt den vollen Nutzen aus allen diesen Methoden ziehen kann.

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Radio direction finding and radio wave propagation

Summary The paper outlines to-day's radio aids to navigation and their eventual dependency on the propagation of radio waves. In the field of radar as well as in the less familiar fields of hyperbolic navigation and radio range many details remain to be cleared with regard to refraction of radio rays, interference and disturbance by sky waves, and the effective velocity of propagation until navigation will be able to derive the full benefit from all these methods.

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Radio navigation et propagation des ondes radioélectriques

Résumé Ce travail a pour but d' exposer le radio guidage pour navigation ainsi que sa dépendance eventuelle de la propagation des ondes radioélectriques. Non seulement dans le domaine du radar mais encore dans les domaines moins connus de la navigation hyperbolique et des radiophares directionels il reste beaucoup de détails à éclaircir, détails qui se rapportent à la réfraction du rayon radioélectrique, à l'interférence et aux perturbations causées par des ondes d'espace et, enfin, à la vitesse effective de propagation. Tous ces problèmes doivent être résolus avant que la navigation puisse tirer tout le profit de ces méthodes.

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Vortrag auf der 3. Hamburger geophysikalischen Tagung, 28. 8. 1952.     

Solution of H2O in diopside melts: a thermodynamic model

Structural similarities between dry diopside melt and superhydrous albite melt (X _w >0.5) — both lack three-dimensional silicate units — suggest that thermodynamic relations may be similar. A model based on that assumption successfully predicts diopside melting relations and H₂O solubilities. For the model, the three partial differential equations describing solution of H₂O in albite melt for X _w >0.5 have been integrated for diopside melt from X _w =0 to X _w at least as large as 0.76, with two exceptions: an alternative partial differential equation for Henrian solution of H₂O in dilute melts was applied for X _w <0.20, and an alternative differential equation for the pressure dependence of a _w at pressures below 2 kbar was developed. The latter alternative equation yields relatively small ¯V_w's at low pressures rather than the large ¯V_w's calculated from the equation from the albite system. Available experimental solubility data are not precise enough to offer a choice between the small-¯V_w and large-¯V_w equations. Integration of all the partial differential equations was constrained solely by the P and T of a single experimentally-determined point on the H₂O-saturated solidus.Solubilities calculated by a Henrian-analogue solution model (a _di=X _di ² ) from the experimental H₂O saturated solidus lie outside experimental solubility constraints for dilute melts. On the other hand, a Henrian model (a _di=X_di) successfully predicts solubilities in dilute melts. The formulation of the Henrian model and magnitudes of model molar entropies of solution are consistent with the hypothesis that H₂O dissolves in diopside melt as an essentially undissociated species with little ordering on melt structural sites. That species could in turn be consistently, if not uniquely, interpreted to be molecular H₂O or a hydroxylation (OH^–) complex formed from nonbridging oxygens.     

Geodynamic evolution of crust accretion at the axis of the Reykjanes Ridge,Atlantic Ocean

The results of analysis of the anomalous magnetic field of the Reykjanes Ridge and the adjacent basins are presented, including a new series of detailed reconstructions for magnetic anomalies 1–6 in combination with a summary of the previous geological and geophysical investigations. We furnish evidence for three stages of evolution of the Reykjanes Ridge, each characterized by a special regime of crustal accretion related to the effect of the Iceland hotspot. The time interval of each stage and the causes of the variation in the accretion regime are considered. During the first, Eocene stage (54–40 Ma) and the third, Miocene-Holocene stage (24 Ma-present time at the northern Reykjanes Ridge north of 59° N and 17–11 Ma-present time at the southern Reykjanes Ridge south of 59° N), the spreading axis of the Reykjanes Ridge resembled the present-day configuration, without segmentation, with oblique orientation relative to the direction of ocean floor opening (at the third stage), and directed toward the hotspot. These attributes are consistent with a model that assumes asthenospheric flow from the hotspot toward the ridge axis. Decompression beneath the spreading axis facilitates this flow. Thus, the crustal accretion during the first and the third stages was markedly affected by interaction of the spreading axis with the hotspot. During the second, late Eocene-Oligocene to early Miocene stage (40–24 Ma at the northern Reykjanes Ridge and 40 to 17–11 Ma at the southern Reykjanes Ridge), the ridge axis was broken by numerous transform fracture zones and nontransform offsets into segments 30–80 km long, which were oriented orthogonal to the direction of ocean floor opening, as is typical of many slow-spreading ridges. The plate-tectonic reconstructions of the oceanic floor accommodating magnetic anomalies of the second stage testify to recurrent rearrangements of the ridge axis geometry related to changing kinematics of the adjacent plates. The obvious contrast in the mode of crustal accretion during the second stage in comparison with the first and the third stages is interpreted as evidence for the decreasing effect of the Iceland hotspot on the Reykjanes Ridge, or the complete cessation of this effect. The detailed geochronology of magnetic anomalies 1–6 (from 20 Ma to present) has allowed us to depict with a high accuracy the isochrons of the oceanic bottom spaced at 1 Ma. The variable effect of the hotspot on the accretion of oceanic crust along the axes of the Reykjanes Ridge and the Kolbeinsey and Mid-Atlantic ridges adjoining the former in the north and the south was estimated from the changing obliquity of spreading. The spreading rate tends to increase with reinforcing of the effect of the Iceland hotspot on the Reykjanes Ridge.