Effect of permafrost thaw on the dynamics of lakes recharged by ice‐jam floods: case study of Yukon Flats,Alaska

Large river floods are a key water source for many lakes in fluvial periglacial settings. Where permeable sediments occur, the distribution of permafrost may play an important role in the routing of floodwaters across a floodplain. This relationship is explored for lakes in the discontinuous permafrost of Yukon Flats, interior Alaska, using an analysis that integrates satellite‐derived gradients in water surface elevation, knowledge of hydrogeology, and hydrologic modelling. We observed gradients in water surface elevation between neighbouring lakes ranging from 0.001 to 0.004. These high gradients, despite a ubiquitous layer of continuous shallow gravel across the flats, are consistent with limited groundwater flow across lake basins resulting from the presence of permafrost. Permafrost impedes the propagation of floodwaters in the shallow subsurface and constrains transmission to ‘fill‐and‐spill’ over topographic depressions (surface sills), as we observed for the Twelvemile‐Buddy Lake pair following a May 2013 ice‐jam flood on the Yukon River. Model results indicate that permafrost table deepening of 1–11 m in gravel, depending on watershed geometry and subsurface properties, could shift important routing of floodwater to lakes from overland flow (fill‐and‐spill) to shallow groundwater flow (‘fill‐and‐seep’). Such a shift is possible in the next several hundred years of ground surface warming and may bring about more synchronous water level changes between neighbouring lakes following large flood events. This relationship offers a potentially useful tool, well suited to remote sensing, for identifying long‐term changes in shallow groundwater flow resulting from thawing of permafrost. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Indo‐Antarctic derived detritus on the northern margin of Gondwana: evidence for continental‐scale sediment transport

Provenance studies from Cambro‐Ordovician sediments of the North Gondwana passive margin typically ascribe a North African source, a conclusion that cannot be reconciled with all observations. We present new U‐Pb ages from detrital rutile and zircon from Late Ordovician sediments from Saxo‐Thuringia, Germany. Detrital zircons yield age populations of 500–800 Ma, 900–1050 Ma and 1800–2600 Ma. The detrital rutile age spectra are unimodal with ages between 500 and 650 Ma and likely represent, together with the 500–800 Ma and 1800–2600 Ma zircon populations, detritus sourced predominantly from North Africa. In contrast, the c. 950 Ma zircons, which are persistently found in Cambro‐Ordovician sediments of North Gondwana, have no obvious African source. We propose that these zircons are sourced from the Rayner Complex–Eastern Ghats regions of Antarctica and India. An Indo‐Antarctic source indicates either continental‐scale sedimentary transport from central Gondwana to its peripheries or multiple cycles of sediment reworking and redeposition.     

Short‐term stream water temperature observations permit rapid assessment of potential climate change impacts

Assessment of potential climate change impacts on stream water temperature (T_s) across large scales remains challenging for resource managers because energy exchange processes between the atmosphere and the stream environment are complex and uncertain, and few long‐term datasets are available to evaluate changes over time. In this study, we demonstrate how simple monthly linear regression models based on short‐term historical T_s observations and readily available interpolated air temperature (T_a) estimates can be used for rapid assessment of historical and future changes in T_s. Models were developed for 61 sites in the southeastern USA using ≥18 months of observations and were validated at sites with longer periods of record. The T_s models were then used to estimate temporal changes in T_s at each site using both historical estimates and future T_a projections. Results suggested that the linear regression models adequately explained the variability in T_s across sites, and the relationships between T_s and T_a remained consistent over 37 years. We estimated that most sites had increases in historical annual mean T_s between 1961 and 2010 (mean of +0.11 °C decade^?1). All 61 sites were projected to experience increases in T_s from 2011 to 2060 under the three climate projections evaluated (mean of +0.41 °C decade^?1). Several of the sites with the largest historical and future T_s changes were located in ecoregions home to temperature‐sensitive fish species. This methodology can be used by resource managers for rapid assessment of potential climate change impacts on stream water temperature. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Long-term research catchments to investigate shrub encroachment in the Sonoran and Chihuahuan deserts: Santa Rita and Jornada experimental ranges

Woody plant encroachment is a global phenomenon whereby shrubs or trees replace grasses. The hydrological consequences of this ecological shift are of broad interest in ecohydrology, yet little is known of how plant and intercanopy patch dynamics, distributions, and connectivity influence catchment-scale responses. To address this gap, we established research catchments in the Sonoran and Chihuahuan Deserts (near Green Valley, Arizona and near Las Cruces, New Mexico, respectively) that represent shrub encroachment in contrasting arid climates. Our main goals in the coordinated observations were to: (a) independently measure the components of the catchment water balance, (b) deploy sensors to quantify the spatial patterns of ecohydrological processes, (c) use novel methods for characterizing catchment properties, and (d) assess shrub encroachment impacts on ecohydrological processes through modelling studies. Datasets on meteorological variables; energy, radiation, and CO₂ fluxes; evapotranspiration; soil moisture and temperature; and runoff at various scales now extend to nearly 10 years of observations at each site, including both wet and dry periods. Here, we provide a brief overview of data collection efforts and offer suggestions for how the coordinated datasets can be exploited for ecohydrological inferences and modelling studies. Given the representative nature of the catchments, the available databases can be used to generalize findings to other catchments in desert landscapes.     

Modelling how vegetation cover affects climate change impacts on streamflow timing and magnitude in the snowmelt‐dominated upper Tuolumne Basin,Sierra Nevada

We investigated, through hydrologic modelling, the impact of the extent and density of canopy cover on streamflow timing and on the magnitude of peak and late summer flows in the upper Tuolumne basin (2600–4000 m) of the Sierra Nevada, California, under current and warmer temperatures. We used the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model for the hydrologic modelling of the basin, assuming four vegetation scenarios: current forest (partial cover, 80% density), all forest (uniform coverage, 80% density), all barren (no forest) and thinned forest (partial cover, 40% density) for a medium‐high emissions scenario causing a 3.9 °C warming over a 100‐year period (2001–2100). Significant advances in streamflow timing, quantified as the centre of mass (COM) of over 1 month were projected for all vegetation scenarios. However, the COM advances faster with increased forest coverage. For example, when forest covered the entire area, the COM occurred on average 12 days earlier compared with the current forest coverage, with the rate of advance higher by about 0.06 days year^?1 over 100 years and with peak and late summer flows lower by about 20% and 27%, respectively. Examination of modelled changes in energy balance components at forested and barren sites as temperatures rise indicated that increases in net longwave radiation are higher in the forest case and have a higher contribution to melting earlier in the calendar year when shortwave radiation is a smaller fraction of the energy budget. These increases contributed to increased midwinter melt under the forest at temperatures above freezing, causing decreases in total accumulation and higher winter and early spring melt rates. These results highlight the importance of carefully considering the combined impacts of changing forest cover and climate on downstream water supply and mountain ecosystems. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modeling the time-dependent response of the Asian summer monsoon to obliquity forcing in a coupled GCM: a PHASEMAP sensitivity experiment

To study the time-dependent response of the Asian summer monsoon to obliquity forcing, we analyze a 284,000-year long transient simulation produced by a fully coupled global climate model (GCM) using a new phase mapping (PHASEMAP) approach. Here we focus on understanding the phase response of monsoonal circulation to insolation forcing at the Earth-orbital obliquity band (41 Kyr). Our results show that the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) can be divided into two geographic regions: the North East Asian summer monsoon (NEASM) and the South East Asian summer monsoon (SEASM). The Indian summer monsoon (ISM) and the SEASM are in phase at the obliquity band, strengthened with an increase in obliquity from Obliquity minima (Omin) to Obliquity maxima (Omax). The NEASM is out of phase with the ISM and SEASM, weakened with an increase in obliquity from Omin to Omax. We hypothesize that the inverse phase between the NEASM and the ISM at the obliquity band results from an ISM–NEASM teleconnection linked to the formation mechanism of the Bonin High.     

Assessing social-ecological coupling: Agriculture and hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico

Analysis and enhancement of “coupling” of social-ecological systems (SES) has emerged as a leading theme in sustainability studies. However, as an analytical concept that can support empirical research, coupling has not been adequately developed. This study synthesizes concepts from environmental sociology and ecological sciences to derive three criteria to assess adaptive coupling of an SES: prevention orientation, spatial targeting and temporal targeting. We apply our criteria to the case of nitrogen pollution from agriculture in the Mississippi River Basin (MRB) and resulting hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico. We analyzed the federal agricultural research and development portfolio to assess the character of investments in knowledge creation and how patterns of investment have changed over time. While superficial assessment of the data suggests that public spending on nitrogen relevant research constitutes a substantive response to the problem of Gulf hypoxia, disaggregating the data highlights an ineffectual response. Specifically, we find that spatial and temporal targeting of investment of socioeconomic resources in the MRB is poorly aligned with the nature of ecological risks confronting the region. In addition to this policy relevant result, our study highlights the importance of geographically referenced data and attention to relevant scales of analysis. Further, the paper demonstrates opportunities to advance concepts and empirical understanding of social-ecological coupling through interdisciplinary research on interfaces that mediate interactions in SES, for example publicly funded research aimed at agricultural practice and environmental conservation in the MRB.     

The Impact of Biofilm Growth on Transport of Escherichia coli O157:H7 in Sand

Understanding the transport behavior, survival, and persistence of pathogens such as Escherichia coli O157:H7 in the subsurface is essential to protection of public health. In this study, the transport of E. coli O157:H7 in a two‐dimensional bench‐scale sand aquifer system, hereafter referred to as the sandbox, was investigated, with a focus on the impact of biofilm development on E. coli retention and survival. Biofilm growth was initiated through flushing with unsterilized groundwater and addition of glucose, nitrate, and phosphate. Retention of E. coli from an injection test in clean sand, prior to promotion of biofilm growth, was approximately 9%. Subsequent to biofilm growth, 47% of injected E. coli cells were retained under similar flow conditions. After 10 d of no flow, sterile water was flushed through the biofouled sandbox and substantial concentrations (up to 1.5 × 10⁵ cells/mL) of E. coli were measured in the effluent indicating that E. coli had survived the starvation period. Confocal laser scanning microscopy revealed that E. coli were located not only on the surface but also within the biofilm. Imposition of starvation conditions resulted in biofilm sloughing and possible mobilization of biofilm‐associated E. coli.     

The use of kelp sieve tube sap metal composition to characterize urban runoff in southern California coastal waters

This study introduces an innovative method for biomonitoring using giant kelp (Macrocystis pyrifera) sieve tube sap (STS) metal concentrations as an indication of pollution influence. STS was sampled from fronds collected from 10 southern California locations, including two reference sites on Santa Catalina Island. Using ICP-MS methodology, STS concentrations of 17 different metals were measured (n = 495). Several metals associated with pollution showed the highest STS concentrations and most seasonal variation from populations inside the Port of Los Angeles/Long Beach. Lowest concentrations were measured at less-urbanized areas: Santa Catalina Island and Malibu. Some metals showed a spatial gradient in STS metal concentration with increasing distance from point sources (i.e. Los Angeles River). Cluster analyses indicate that polluted seawater may affect kelp uptake of metals essential for cellular function. Results show that this method can be useful in describing bioavailable metal pollution with implications for accumulation within an important ecosystem.