Examination of ‘global atmospheric temperature monitoring with satellite microwave measurements’: 2. Analysis of satellite data

Using Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) channel 2 (Ch. 2, 53.74 GHz) data, Spencer and Christy (1992a) determined that the earth exhibits no temperature trend in the period 1979–90, while other authors find a temperature increase of roughly 0.1 K. Based on a theoretical analysis Prabhakara et al. (1995) showed that the information about the global atmospheric temperature deduced from MSU Ch. 2 observations has a small contamination, T ₂, as a result of the attenuation due to hydrometeors in the atmosphere. A method is developed in this study, that utilizes coincident measurements made by MSU in Ch. 1 (50.3 GHz), to estimate this T ₂ over the global oceans. The magnitude of T ₂ is found to be about 1 K over significant parts of the tropical oceanic rain belts and about 0.25 K over minor portions of the mid-latitude oceanic storm tracks. Due to events such as El Niôo, there is variability from year to year in the rain areas and rain intensity leading to significant change in the patterns of T ₂. The patterns of T ₂ derived for March 82 and March 83 reveal such a change. When averaged over the global oceans, from 50° N to 50° S, T ₂ has a value of 0.25 and 0.29 K for March 1982 and 1983, respectively. Due to these reasons the interannual temperature change derived by Spencer and Christy from MSU Ch. 2 will contain a residual hydrometeor effect. Thus in evaluating decadal trend of the global mean temperature of the order of 0.1 K from MSU Ch. 2 data one has to take into account completely the contamination due to hydrometeors.     

Zonal winds and southeast Australian rainfall in global and regional climate models

Southeast Australia is a region of high rainfall variability related to major climate drivers, with a long-term declining trend in cool-season rainfall. Projections of future rainfall trends are uncertain in this region, despite projected southward shifts in the subtropical ridge and mid-latitude westerlies. This appears to be related to a poor representation of the spatial relationships between rainfall variability and zonal wind patterns across southeast Australia in the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project ensemble, particularly in the areas where weather systems embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies are the main source of cool-season rainfall. Downscaling with regional climate models offers improvements in the mean rainfall climatology, and shows some ability to correct for poor modelled relationships between rainfall and zonal winds along the east coast of Australia. However, it provides only minor improvements to these relationships in southeast Australia, despite the improved representation of topographic features. These results suggest that both global and regional climate models may fail to translate projected circulation changes into their likely rainfall impacts in southeast Australia.     

Rossby wave propagation into the tropics in two GFDL general circulation models

During the northern winter the eastern Pacific is characterized by upper level westerly flow extending from the equator into the midlatitudes of both hemispheres. Theoretical and simple modeling studies suggest that such a region should favor the penetration of Rossby waves into the tropics from higher latitudes. Observational results by Kiladis and Weickmann using 200 mb data indicate that Rossby waves do indeed propagate freely into the tropical eastern Pacific during the northern winter from the Asian jet exit region. They also confirmed that cross-equatorial dispersion of energy from the Northern into the Southern Hemisphere occurs frequently. The present study examines these interactions in climatological runs of two GFDL GCMs. The northern wintertime mean states of these models are characterized by a rather realistically simulated upper level westerly regime in the tropical Pacific. Despite the relative weakness of the Asian jet and wave activity with respect to observations, propagation of Rossby waves into the tropics is present in both models, and these waves are strongly positively tilted as seen in the observations. A momentum budget of the zonal wind and E vector diagnostics over the tropical Pacific indicate that these transients are an important component of the momentum balance of the equatorial westerlies in both the observations and in the models.This paper was presented at the Second International Conference on Modelling of Global Climate Variability, held in Hamburg 7–11 September 1992 under the auspices of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. Guest Editor for these papers is L. Dümenil     

Land-use transition for bioenergy and climate stabilization: model comparison of drivers,impacts and interactions with other land use based mitigation options

In this article, we evaluate and compare results from three integrated assessment models (GCAM, IMAGE, and ReMIND/MAgPIE) regarding the drivers and impacts of bioenergy production on the global land system. The considered model frameworks employ linked energy, economy, climate and land use modules. By the help of these linkages the direct competition of bioenergy with other energy technology options for greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation, based on economic costs and GHG emissions from bioenergy production, has been taken into account. Our results indicate that dedicated bioenergy crops and biomass residues form a potentially important and cost-effective input into the energy system. At the same time, however, the results differ strongly in terms of deployment rates, feedstock composition and land-use and greenhouse gas implications. The current paper adds to earlier work by specific looking into model differences with respect to the land-use component that could contribute to the noted differences in results, including land cover allocation, land use constraints, energy crop yields, and non-bioenergy land mitigation options modeled. In scenarios without climate change mitigation, bioenergy cropland represents 10–18 % of total cropland by 2100 across the different models, and boosts cropland expansion at the expense of carbon richer ecosystems. Therefore, associated emissions from land-use change and agricultural intensification as a result of bio-energy use range from 14 and 113 Gt CO2-eq cumulatively through 2100. Under climate policy, bioenergy cropland increases to 24–36 % of total cropland by 2100.     

Diamonds and their mineral inclusions from the A154 South pipe, Diavik Diamond Mine, Northwest territories, Canada

Mineral inclusions recovered from 100 diamonds from the A154 South kimberlite (Diavik Diamond Mines, Central Slave Craton, Canada) indicate largely peridotitic diamond sources (83%), with a minor (12%) eclogitic component. Inclusions of ferropericlase (4%) and diamond in diamond (1%) represent “undetermined” parageneses.

Compared to inclusions in diamonds from the Kaapvaal Craton, overall higher CaO contents (2.6 to 6.0 wt.%) of harzburgitic garnets and lower Mg-numbers (90.6 to 93.6) of olivines indicate diamond formation in a chemically less depleted environment. Peridotitic diamonds at A154 South formed in an exceptionally Zn-rich environment, with olivine inclusions containing more than twice the value (of  52 ppm) established for normal mantle olivine. Harzburgitic garnet inclusions generally have sinusoidal rare earth element (REE_N) patterns, enriched in LREE and depleted in HREE. A single analyzed lherzolitic garnet is re-enriched in middle to heavy REE resulting in a “normal” REE_N pattern. Two of the harzburgitic garnets have “transitional” REE_N patterns, broadly similar to that of the lherzolitic garnet. Eclogitic garnet inclusions have normal REE_N patterns similar to eclogitic garnets worldwide but at lower REE concentrations.

Carbon isotopic values (δ¹³C) range from − 10.5‰ to + 0.7‰, with 94% of diamonds falling between − 6.3‰ and − 4.0‰. Nitrogen concentrations range from below detection (< 10 ppm) to 3800 ppm and aggregation states cover the entire spectrum from poorly aggregated (Type IaA) to fully aggregated (Type IaB). Diamonds without evidence of previous plastic deformation (which may have accelerated nitrogen aggregation) typically have < 25% of their nitrogen in the fully aggregated B-centres. Assuming diamond formation beneath the Central Slave to have occurred in the Archean [Westerlund, K.J., Shirey, S.B., Richardson, S.H., Gurney, J.J., Harris, J.W., 2003b. Re–Os systematics of diamond inclusion sulfides from the Panda kimberlite, Slave craton. VIIIth International Kimberlite Conference, Victoria, Canada, Extended Abstracts, 5p.], such low aggregation states indicate mantle residence at fairly low temperatures (< 1100 °C). Geothermometry based on non-touching inclusion pairs, however, indicates diamond formation at temperatures around 1200 °C. To reconcile inclusion and nitrogen based temperature estimates, cooling by about 100–200 °C shortly after diamond formation is required.     

Enhanced diffusion of Uranium and Thorium linked to crystal plasticity in zircon

The effects of crystal-plasticity on the U-Th-Pb system in zircon is studied by quantitative microstructural and microchemical analysis of a large zircon grain collected from pyroxenite of the Lewisian Complex, Scotland. Electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD) mapping reveals a c.18° variation in crystallographic orientation that comprises both a gradual change in orientation and a series of discrete low-angle (<4°) boundaries. These microstructural data are consistent with crystal-plastic deformation of zircon associated with the formation and migration of dislocations. A heterogeneous pattern of dark cathodoluminescence, with the darkest domains coinciding with low-angle boundaries, mimics the deformation microstructure identified by EBSD. Geochemical data collected using the Sensitive High Resolution Ion MicroProbe (SHRIMP) shows a positive correlation between concentrations of the elements U, Th and Pb (ranging from 20–60 ppm, 30–110 ppm, and 14–36 ppm, respectively) and Th/U ratio (1.13 – 1.8) with the deformation microstructure. The highest measured concentrations and Th/U coincide with low-angle boundaries. This enrichment is interpreted to reflect enhanced bulk diffusion of U and Th due to the formation and migration of high-diffusivity dislocations. ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁶Pb ages for individual analyses show no significant variation across the grain, and define a concordant, combined mean age of 2451 ± 14 Ma. This indicates that the grain was deformed shortly after initial crystallization, most probably during retrograde Inverian metamorphism at amphibolite facies conditions. The elevated Th over U and consistent ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁶Pb ages indicates that deformation most likely occurred in the presence of a late-stage magmatic fluid that drove an increase in the Th/U during deformation. The relative enrichment of Th over U implies that Th/U ratio may not always be a robust indicator of crystallization environment. This study provides the first evidence of deformation-related modification of the U-Th system in zircon and has fundamental implications for the application and interpretation of zircon trace element data.     

Integrated models of diamond formation and craton evolution

Two decades of diamond research in southern Africa allow the age, average N content and carbon composition of diamonds, and the dominant paragenesis of their syngenetic silicate and sulfide inclusions to be integrated on a cratonwide scale with a model of craton formation. Individual eclogitic sulfide inclusions in diamonds from the Kimberley area kimberlites, Koffiefontein, Orapa and Jwaneng have Re–Os isotopic ages that range from circa 2.9 Ga to the mid-Proterozoic and display little correspondence with the prominent variations in the P-wave velocity (±1%) that the mantle lithosphere shows at depths within the diamond stability field (150–225 km). Silicate inclusions in diamonds and their host diamond compositions for the above kimberlites, Finsch, Jagersfontein, Roberts Victor, Premier, Venetia, and Letlhakane show a regional relationship to the seismic velocity of the lithosphere. Mantle lithosphere with slower P-wave velocity relative to the craton average correlates with a greater proportion of eclogitic vs. peridotitic silicate inclusions in diamond, a greater incidence of younger Sm–Nd ages of silicate inclusions, a greater proportion of diamonds with lighter C isotopic composition, and a lower percentage of low-N diamonds. The oldest formation ages of diamonds support a model whereby mantle that became part of the continental keel of cratonic nuclei first was created by middle Archean (3.2–3.3 Ga or older) mantle depletion events with high degrees of melting and early harzburgite formation. The predominance of eclogitic sulfide inclusions in the 2.9 Ga age population links late Archean (2.9 Ga) subduction–accretion events to craton stabilization. These events resulted in a widely distributed, late Archean generation of eclogitic diamonds in an amalgamated craton. Subsequent Proterozoic tectonic and magmatic events altered the composition of the continental lithosphere and added new lherzolitic and eclogitic diamonds to the already extensive Archean diamond suite. Similar age/paragenesis systematics are seen for the more limited data sets from the Slave and Siberian cratons.     

The rendition of the Atlantic Warm Pool in the reanalyses

The Atlantic Warm Pool (AWP) region, which is comprised of the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea and parts of the northwestern tropical Atlantic Ocean, is one of the most poorly observed parts of the global oceans. This study compares three ocean reanalyses, namely the Global Ocean Data Assimilation System of National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) of NCEP, and the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) for its AWP variation. The surface temperature in these ocean reanalyses is also compared with that from the Extended Range SST version 3 and Optimally Interpolated SST version 2 SST analyses. In addition we also compare three atmospheric reanalyses: NCEP-NCAR (R1), NCEP-DOE (R2), and CFSR for the associated atmospheric variability with the AWP. The comparison shows that there are important differences in the climatology of the AWP and its interannual variations. There are considerable differences in the subsurface ocean manifestation of the AWP with SODA (CFSR) showing the least (largest) modulation of the subsurface ocean temperatures. The remote teleconnections with the tropical Indian Ocean are also different across the reanalyses. However, all three oceanic reanalyses consistently show the absence of any teleconnection with the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. The influence of the AWP on the tropospheric temperature anomalies last for up to a one season lead and it is found to be relatively weak in R1 reanalyses. A simplified SST anomaly equation initially derived for diagnosing El Niño Southern Oscillation variability is adapted for the AWP variations in this study. The analysis of this equation reveals that the main contribution of the SST variation in the AWP region is from the variability of the net heat flux. All three reanalyses consistently show that the role of the ocean advective terms, including that associated with upwelling in the AWP region, is comparatively much smaller. The covariance of the SST tendency in the AWP with the net heat flux is large, with significant contributions from the variations of the surface shortwave and longwave fluxes.     

Net primary production of terrestrial ecosystems from 2000 to 2009

The CASA (Carnegie-Ames-Stanford) ecosystem model has been used to estimate monthly carbon fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems from 2000 to 2009, with global data inputs from NASA??s Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) vegetation cover mapping. Net primary production (NPP) flux for atmospheric carbon dioxide has varied slightly from year-to-year, but was predicted to have increased over short multi-year periods in the regions of the high-latitude Northern Hemisphere, South Asia, Central Africa, and the western Amazon since the year 2000. These CASA results for global NPP were found to be in contrast to other recently published modeling trends for terrestrial NPP with high sensitivity to regional drying patterns. Nonetheless, periodic declines in regional NPP were predicted by CASA for the southern and western Untied States, the southern Amazon, and southern and eastern Africa. NPP in tropical forest zones was examined in greater detail to discover lower annual production values than previously reported in many global models across the tropical rainforest zones, likely due to the enhanced detection of lower production ecosystems replacing primary rainforest.     

An empirical formula for the height of the coastal internal boundary layer

Observations of the height of the daytime coastal internal boundary layer at several sites are used to justify an empirical formula in the Offshore and Coastal Dispersion (OCD) model, which states that the boundary-layer slope is 0.1 in the first 2km from the shoreline, and 0.03 therafter.