Predicted changes in fire weather suggest increases in lightning fire initiation and future area burned in the mixedwood boreal forest

Forecasting future fire activity as a function of climate change is a step towards understanding the future state of the western mixedwood boreal ecosystem. We developed five annual weather indices based on the Daily Severity Rating (DSR) of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System and estimated their relationship with annual, empirical counts of lightning fire initiation for 588 landscapes in the mixedwood boreal forest in central-eastern Alberta, Canada from data collected between 1983 and 2001 using zero-inflated negative binomial regression models. Two indices contributed to a parsimonious model of initiation; these were Seasonal Severity Rating (SSR), and DSR-sequence count. We used parameter estimates from this model to predict lightning fire initiation under weather conditions predicted in 1 × CO₂ (1975–1985), 2 × CO₂ (2040–2049) and 3 × CO₂ (2080–2089) conditions simulated by the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM). We combined predicted initiation rates for these conditions with existing empirical estimates of the number of fire initiations that grow to be large fires (fire escapes) and the fire size distribution for the region, to predict the annual area burned by lightning-caused fires in each of the three climate conditions. We illustrated a 1.5-fold and 1.8-fold increase of lightning fire initiation by 2040–2049 and 2080–2089 relative to 1975–1985 conditions due to changes in fire weather predicted by the CRCM; these increases were calculated independent of changes in lightning activity. Our simulations suggested that weather-mediated increases in initiation frequency could correspond to a substantial increase in future area burned with 1.9-fold and 2.6-fold increases in area burned in 2040–2049 and 2080–2089 relative to 1975–1985 conditions, respectively. We did not include any biotic effects in these estimates, though future patterns of initiation and fire growth will be regulated not only by weather, but also by vegetation and fire management.     

Consequences of change and variability in sea ice on marine ecosystem and biogeochemical processes during the 2007–2008 Canadian International Polar Year program

Change and variability in the timing and magnitude of sea ice geophysical and thermodynamic state have consequences on many aspects of the arctic marine system. The changes in both the geophysical and thermodynamic state, and in particular the timing of the development of these states, have consequences throughout the marine system. In this paper we review the ??consequences?? of change in sea ice state on primary productivity, marine mammal habitats, and sea ice as a medium for storage and transport of contaminants and carbon exchange across the ocean-sea-ice-atmosphere interface based upon results from the International Polar Year. Pertinent results include: 1) conditions along ice edges can bring deep nutrient-rich ??pacific?? waters into nutrient-poor surface waters along the arctic coast, affecting local food webs; 2) both sea ice thermodynamic and dynamic processes ultimately affect ringed seal/polar bear habitats by controlling the timing, location and amount of surface deformation required for ringed seal and polar bear preferred habitat 3) the ice edges bordering open waters of flaw leads are areas of high biological production and are observed to be important beluga habitat. 4) exchange of climate-active gases, including CO₂, is extremely active in sea ice environments, and the overall question of whether the Arctic Ocean is (or will be) a source or sink for CO₂ will be dependent on the balance of competing climate-change feedbacks.     

Changes in Arctic clouds during intervals of rapid sea ice loss

We investigate the behavior of clouds during rapid sea ice loss events (RILEs) in the Arctic, as simulated by multiple ensemble projections of the 21st century in the Community Climate System Model (CCSM3). Trends in cloud properties and sea ice coverage during RILEs are compared with their secular trends between 2000 and 2049 during summer, autumn, and winter. The results suggest that clouds promote abrupt Arctic climate change during RILEs through increased (decreased) cloudiness in autumn (summer) relative to the changes over the first half of the 21st century. The trends in cloud characteristics (cloud amount, water content, and radiative forcing) during RILEs are most strongly and consistently an amplifying effect during autumn, the season in which RILEs account for the majority of the secular trends. The total cloud trends in every season are primarily due to low clouds, which show a more robust response than middle and high clouds across RILEs. Lead-lag correlations of monthly sea ice concentration and cloud cover during autumn reveal that the relationship between less ice and more clouds is enhanced during RILEs, but there is no evidence that either variable is leading the other. Given that Arctic cloud projections in CCSM3 are similar to those from other state-of-the-art GCMs and that observations show increased autumn cloudiness associated with the extreme 2007 and 2008 sea ice minima, this study suggests that the rapidly declining Arctic sea ice will be accentuated by changes in polar clouds.     

Exploring hydroclimatic change disparity via the Budyko framework

The Budyko framework characterizes landscape water cycles as a function of climate. We used this framework to identify regions with contrasting hydroclimatic change during the past 50 years in Sweden. This analysis revealed three distinct regions: the mountains, the forests, and the areas with agriculture. Each region responded markedly different to recent climate and anthropogenic changes, and within each region, we identified the most sensitive subregions. These results highlight the need for regional differentiation in climate change adaptation strategies to protect vulnerable ecosystems and freshwater resources. Further, the Budyko curve moved systematically towards its water and energy limits, indicating augmentation of the water cycle driven by changing vegetation, climate and human interactions. This finding challenges the steady state assumption of the Budyko curve and therefore its ability to predict future water cycles. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The First Hop: Use of Beaufort Sea Deltas by Hatch-Year Semipalmated Sandpipers

River deltas along Alaska’s Beaufort Sea coast are used by hatch-year semipalmated sandpipers (Calidris pusilla) after leaving their terrestrial natal sites, but the drivers of their use of these stopover sites on the first “hop” of fall migration are unknown. We quantified sandpiper temporal distribution and abundance as related to food resources at three river deltas during the beginning of their fall migration (post-breeding period) to compare the habitat quality among these deltas. We conducted population counts, sampled invertebrates, and captured birds to collect blood samples from individuals for triglyceride and stable isotope analyses to determine fattening rates and diet. Patterns of sandpiper and invertebrate abundance were complex and varied among deltas and within seasons. River deltas were used by sandpipers from late July to late August, and peak sandpiper counts ranged from 1000 to 4000 individuals, of which 98% were hatch-year semipalmated sandpipers. Isotopic signatures from blood plasma samples indicated that birds switched from a diet of upland tundra to delta invertebrate taxa as the migration season progressed, suggesting a dependence on delta invertebrates. Despite differences in diet among deltas, we found no differences in fattening rates of juvenile sandpipers as indicated by triglyceride levels. The number of sandpipers was positively associated with abundance of Amphipoda and Oligochaeta at the Jago and Okpilak-Hulahula deltas; an isotopic mixing model indicated that sandpipers consumed Amphipoda and Oligochaeta at Jago, mostly Chironomidae at Okpilak-Hulahula and Spionidae at Canning. Regardless of the difference in sandpiper diets at the Beaufort Sea deltas, their similar fattening rates throughout the season indicate that all of these stopover sites provide a critical food resource for hatch-year sandpipers beginning their first migration.     

Correction to: Projection of Iron Ore Production

Natural Resources Research - The original version of this article unfortunately contained an error in Equation 3.     

Deep-sea reef fish assemblage patterns on the Blake Plateau(Western North Atlantic Ocean)

Deep‐water coral habitats are scattered throughout slope depths (360–800 m) off the Southeastern United States (SEUS, Cape Lookout, North Carolina, to Cape Canaveral, Florida), contributing substantial structure and diversity to bottom habitats. In some areas (e.g. off North Carolina) deep corals form nearly monotypic (Lophelia pertusa) high profile mounds, and in other areas (e.g. off Florida) many species may colonize hard substrata. Deep coral and hard substrata ecosystems off the SEUS support a unique fish assemblage. Using the Johnson‐Sea‐Link submersible (in 2000–2005, 65 dives), and a remotely operated vehicle (in 2003, five dives), fishes were surveyed in nine deep reef study areas along the SEUS slope. Forty‐two benthic reef fish species occurred in deep reef habitats in these study areas. Species richness was greatest on the two coral banks off Cape Lookout, North Carolina (n = 23 and 27 species) and lowest on the two sites off Cape Canaveral, Florida (n = 7 and 8 species). Fish assemblages exhibited significantly (ANOSIM, Global R = 0.69, P = 0.001) different patterns among sites. Stations sampled off North Carolina (three study areas) formed a distinct group that differed from all dives conducted to the south. Although several species defined the fish assemblages at the North Carolina sites, Laemonema barbatulum, Laemonema melanurum, and Helicolenus dactylopterus generally had the most influence on the definition of the North Carolina group. Fish assemblages at three sites within the central survey area on the Blake Plateau were also similar to each other, and were dominated by Nezumia sclerorhynchus and L. melanurum. Synaphobranchus spp. and Neaumia sclerorhynchus differentiated the two southern sites off Cape Canaveral, Florida, from the other station groups. Combinations of depth and habitat type had the most influence on these station groups; however, explicit mechanisms contributing to the organization of these assemblages remain unclear.     

Flood seasonality across Scandinavia—Evidence of a shifting hydrograph?

Fluvial flood events have substantial impacts on humans, both socially and economically, as well as on ecosystems (e.g., hydroecology and pollutant transport). Concurrent with climate change, the seasonality of flooding in cold environments is expected to shift from a snowmelt‐dominated to a rainfall‐dominated flow regime. This would have profound impacts on water management strategies, that is, flood risk mitigation, drinking water supply, and hydro power. In addition, cold climate hydrological systems exhibit complex interactions with catchment properties and large‐scale climate fluctuations making the manifestation of changes difficult to detect and predict. Understanding a possible change in flood seasonality and defining related key drivers therefore is essential to mitigate risk and to keep management strategies viable under a changing climate. This study explores changes in flood seasonality across near‐natural catchments in Scandinavia using circular statistics and trend tests. Results indicate strong seasonality in flooding for snowmelt‐dominated catchments with a single peak occurring in spring and early summer (March through June), whereas flood peaks are more equally distributed throughout the year for catchments located close to the Atlantic coast and in the south of the study area. Flood seasonality has changed over the past century seen as decreasing trends in summer maximum daily flows and increasing winter and spring maximum daily flows with 5–35% of the catchments showing significant changes at the 5% significance level. Seasonal mean daily flows corroborate those findings with higher percentages (5–60%) of the catchments showing statistically significant changes. Alterations in annual flood occurrence also point towards a shift in flow regime from snowmelt‐dominated to rainfall‐dominated with consistent changes towards earlier timing of the flood peak (significant for 25% of the catchments). Regionally consistent patterns suggest a first‐order climate control as well as a local second‐order catchment control, which causes inter‐seasonal variability in the streamflow response.     

Short-term environmental variability in cold-water coral habitat at Viosca Knoll,Gulf of Mexico

The Lophelia pertusa community at Viosca Knoll (VK826) is the most extensive found to date in the Gulf of Mexico. As part of a multi-disciplinary study, the physical setting of this area was described using benthic landers, CTD transects and remotely operated vehicle observations. The site was broadly characterised into three main habitats: (1) dense coral cover that resembles biogenic reef complexes, (2) areas of sediment, and (3) authigenic carbonate blocks with sparse coral and chemosynthetic communities. The coral communities were dominated by L. pertusa but also contained numerous solitary coral species. Over areas that contained L. pertusa, the environmental conditions recorded were similar to those associated with communities in the north-eastern Atlantic, with temperature (8.5–10.6 °C) and salinity (～35) falling within the known species niche for L. pertusa. However, dissolved oxygen concentrations (2.7–2.8 ml l^?1) and density (σ_Θ, 27.1–27.2 kg m^?3) were lower and mass fluxes from sediment trap data appeared much higher (4002–4192 mg m^?2 d^?1). Yet, this species still appears to thrive in this region, suggesting that L. pertusa may not be as limited by lower dissolved oxygen concentrations as previously thought. The VK826 site experienced sustained eastward water flow of 10–30 cm s^?1 over the 5-day measurement period but was also subjected to significant short-term variability in current velocity and direction. In addition, two processes were observed that caused variability in salinity and temperature; the first was consistent with internal waves that caused temperature variations of 0.8 °C over 5–11 h periods. The second was high-frequency variability (20–30 min periods) in temperature recorded only at the ALBEX site. A further pattern observed over the coral habitat was the presence of a 24 h diel vertical migration of zooplankton that may form part of a food chain that eventually reaches the corals. The majority of detailed studies concerning local environmental conditions in L. pertusa habitats have been conducted within the north-eastern Atlantic, limiting most knowledge of the niche of this species to a single part of an ocean basin. Data presented here show that the corals at VK826 are subjected to similar conditions in temperature, salinity, and flow velocity as their counterparts in the north-east Atlantic, although values for dissolved oxygen and density (sigma-theta: σ_Θ) are different. Our data also highlight novel observations of short-term environmental variability in cold-water coral habitat.     

Evaluation of biotite-garnet geothermometers: application to the English River subprovince,Ontario

In recent years, there have been numerous calibrations of the biotite-garnet Fe-Mg exchange geothermometer. The Eastern Lac Seul region of the English River subprovince, Ontario, provides an excellent field area in which to compare these calibrations.Trend surface analysis using the temperatures obtained from garnet cores and matrix biotites-showed almost identical trends in the eastern Lac Seul region regardless of the calibration used. The absolute temperatures and the precision of each calibration do, however, show large variation. Geothermometers based solely on lnK_D were found to give more precise results than the calibrations that attempt to incorporate non-Fe-Mg components. The Perchuk and Lavrent'eva (1983) thermometer yields the most precise and accurate results. If a sufficient number of samples are collected over a region, it can be used to estimate metamorphic temperature trends to ±30° C. Metamorphism and migmatization of the English River subprovince occurred during the Kenoran orogeny, 2.68 b.y. ago. Our results show that a thermal anticline has been preserved, with temperatures of 600° C at the north and south contacts with Uchi and Wabigoon Greenstone belts, increasing to 725 °C at the center of the subprovince. A garnet-cordierite in isograd occurs at 650° C and an orthopyroxene in isogradat 700° C.