Rock physics analysis for time-lapse seismic at Schiehallion Field, North Sea

Rock physics analysis plays a vital role in time‐lapse seismic interpretation because it provides the link between changes in rock and fluid properties and the resulting seismic data response. In this case study of the Schiehallion Field, we discuss a number of issues that commonly arise in rock physics analyses for time‐lapse studies. We show that:

• 1 Logarithmic fits of dry bulk (K_dry) and shear (G_dry) moduli vs. effective pressure (P_eff) are superior to polynomial fits.
• 2 2D surface fits of K_dry and G_dry over porosity (φ) and effective pressure using all the core data simultaneously are more useful and accurate than separate 1D fits over φ and P_eff for each individual core.
• 3 One average set (facies) of K_dry(φ, P_eff) and G_dry(φ, P_eff) can be chosen to represent adequately the entire Schiehallion reservoir.
• 4 Saturated velocities and densities modelled by fluid substitution of K_dry(φ, P_eff), G_dry(φ, P_eff) and the dry bulk density ρ_dry(φ) compare favourably with well‐log velocities and densities.
• 5 P‐ and S‐wave impedance values resulting from fluid substitution of K_dry(φ, P_eff), G_dry(φ, P_eff) and ρ_dry(φ) show that the largest impedance changes occur for high porosities and low effective pressures.
• 6 Uncertainties in K_dry(φ, P_eff) and G_dry(φ, P_eff) derived for individual cores can be used to generate error surfaces for these moduli that represent bounds for quantifying uncertainties in seismic modelling or pressure–saturation inversion.

     

Testing solar forcing of pervasive Holocene climate cycles

The temporal and spatial extent of Holocene climate change is an area of considerable uncertainty, with solar forcing recently proposed to be the origin of cycles identified in the North Atlantic region. To address these issues we have developed an annually resolved record of changes in Irish bog tree populations over the last 7468 years which, together with radiocarbon‐dated bog and lake‐edge populations, extend the dataset back to ～9000 yr ago. The Irish trees underpin the internationally accepted radiocarbon calibration curve, used to derive a proxy of solar activity, and allow us to test solar forcing of Holocene climate change. Tree populations and age structures provide unambiguous evidence of major shifts in Holocene surface moisture, with a dominant cyclicity of 800 yr, similar to marine cycles in the North Atlantic, indicating significant changes in the latitude and intensity of zonal atmospheric circulation across the region. The cycles, however, are not coherent with changes in solar activity (both being on the same absolute timescale), indicating that Holocene North Atlantic climate variability at the millennial and centennial scale is not driven by a linear response to changes in solar activity. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The local environment of H ii galaxies

We have carried out an investigation of the environments of low redshift H  ii galaxies by cross-correlating their positions on the sky with those of faint field galaxies in the Automatic Plate Measuring Machine (APM) catalogues. We address the question of whether violent star formation in H  ii galaxies is induced by low-mass companions by statistically estimating the mean space density of galaxies around them. We argue that even if low-mass companions were mainly intergalactic H  i clouds, their optical counterparts should be detectable at faint limits of the APM scans.
A significantly positive signal is detected for the H  ii galaxy–APM galaxy angular cross-correlation function, but the amplitude is poorly determined. The projected cross-correlation function has a higher signal-to-noise ratio, and suggests that the amplitude is slightly lower than for normal field galaxies. This implies that these bursting dwarf galaxies inhabit slightly lower density environments than those of normal field galaxies, consistent with other studies of emission-line galaxies. This suggests that in these dwarf starburst galaxies, star formation is not always triggered by tidal interactions, and a significant fraction must have a different origin.     

The radio properties of radio-quiet quasars

Although radio-quiet quasars (RQQs) constitute ≳ 90 per cent of optically identified quasar samples, their radio properties are only poorly understood. In this paper we present the results of a multi-frequency VLA study of 27 low-redshift RQQs. We detect radio emission from 20 objects, half of which are unresolved (≤ 0.24 arcsec). In cases where significant structure can be resolved, double, triple and linear radio sources on scales of a few kpc are found. The radio emission (typically) has a steep spectrum (α ∼ 0.7, where S  ∝ ν^−α), and high brightness temperatures ( T _B ≥ 10⁵ K) are measured in some of the radio components. The RQQs form a natural extension to the radio luminosity–absolute magnitude distribution of nearby Seyfert 1s. We conclude that a significant fraction of the radio emission in RQQs originates in a compact nuclear source directly associated with the quasar. There are no significant differences between the radio properties of RQQs with elliptical hosts and those in disc galaxies within the current sample.     

Flood seasonality across Scandinavia—Evidence of a shifting hydrograph?

Fluvial flood events have substantial impacts on humans, both socially and economically, as well as on ecosystems (e.g., hydroecology and pollutant transport). Concurrent with climate change, the seasonality of flooding in cold environments is expected to shift from a snowmelt‐dominated to a rainfall‐dominated flow regime. This would have profound impacts on water management strategies, that is, flood risk mitigation, drinking water supply, and hydro power. In addition, cold climate hydrological systems exhibit complex interactions with catchment properties and large‐scale climate fluctuations making the manifestation of changes difficult to detect and predict. Understanding a possible change in flood seasonality and defining related key drivers therefore is essential to mitigate risk and to keep management strategies viable under a changing climate. This study explores changes in flood seasonality across near‐natural catchments in Scandinavia using circular statistics and trend tests. Results indicate strong seasonality in flooding for snowmelt‐dominated catchments with a single peak occurring in spring and early summer (March through June), whereas flood peaks are more equally distributed throughout the year for catchments located close to the Atlantic coast and in the south of the study area. Flood seasonality has changed over the past century seen as decreasing trends in summer maximum daily flows and increasing winter and spring maximum daily flows with 5–35% of the catchments showing significant changes at the 5% significance level. Seasonal mean daily flows corroborate those findings with higher percentages (5–60%) of the catchments showing statistically significant changes. Alterations in annual flood occurrence also point towards a shift in flow regime from snowmelt‐dominated to rainfall‐dominated with consistent changes towards earlier timing of the flood peak (significant for 25% of the catchments). Regionally consistent patterns suggest a first‐order climate control as well as a local second‐order catchment control, which causes inter‐seasonal variability in the streamflow response.     

A complete sample of radio sources in the North Ecliptic Cap, selected at 38 MHz – III. Further imaging observations and the photometric properties of the sample

Further imaging observations of a sample of radio sources in the North Ecliptic Cap are presented and a number of new identifications are made. Using redshifts from spectroscopic data presented in a companion paper by Lacy et al., the photometric properties of the galaxies in the sample are discussed. It is shown that: (1) out to at least z ≈0.6 radio galaxies are good standard candles irrespective of radio luminosity; (2) for 0.6≲ z ≲1 a large fraction of the sample has magnitudes and colours consistent with a non-evolving giant elliptical, and (3) at higher redshifts, where the R -band samples the rest-frame UV flux, most objects have less UV luminosity than expected if they form their stellar populations at a constant rate from a high redshift to z ∼1 in unobscured star-forming regions (assuming an Einstein–de Sitter cosmology). The consequences of these observations are briefly discussed.     

Decadal‐Scale Changes of the Ödenwinkelkees,Central Austria,Suggest Increasing Control of Topography and Evolution Towards Steady State

Small mountain glaciers have short mass balance response times to climate change and are consequently very important for short‐term contributions to sea level. However, a distinct research and knowledge gap exists between (1) wider regional studies that produce overview patterns and trends in glacier changes, and (2) in situ local scale studies that emphasise spatial heterogeneity and complexity in glacier responses to climate. This study of a small glacier in central Austria presents a spatiotemporally detailed analysis of changes in glacier geometry and changes in glaciological behaviour. It integrates geomorphological surveys, historical maps, aerial photographs, airborne LiDAR data, ground‐based differential global positioning surveys and Ground Penetrating Radar surveys to produce three‐dimensional glacier geometry at 13 time increments spanning from 1850 to 2013. Glacier length, area and volume parameters all generally showed reductions with time. The glacier equilibrium line altitude increased by 90 m between 1850 and 2008. Calculations of the mean bed shear stress rapidly approaching less than 100 kPA, of the volume–area ratio fast approaching 1.458, and comparison of the geometric reconstructions with a 1D theoretical model could together be interpreted to suggest evolution of the glacier geometry towards steady state. If the present linear trend in declining ice volume continues, then the Ödenwinkelkees will disappear by the year 2040, but we conceptualise that non‐linear effects of bed overdeepenings on ice dynamics, of supraglacial debris cover on the surface energy balance, and of local topographically driven controls, namely wind‐redistributed snow deposition, avalanching and solar shading, will become proportionally more important factors in the glacier net balance.     

A note on climate change adaptation for seaports: a challenge for global ports, a challenge for global society

With 80 % of world trade carried by sea, seaports provide crucial linkages in global supply-chains and are essential for the ability of all countries to access global markets. Seaports are likely to be affected directly and indirectly by climatic changes, with broader implications for international trade and development. Due to their coastal location, seaports are particularly vulnerable to extreme weather events associated with increasing sea levels and tropical storm activity, as illustrated by hurricane “Sandy”. In view of their strategic role as part of the globalized trading system, adapting ports in different parts of the world to the impacts of climate change is of considerable importance. Reflecting the views of a diverse group of stakeholders with expertise in climate science, engineering, economics, policy, and port management, this essay highlights the climate change challenge for ports and suggests a way forward through the adoption of some initial measures. These include both “soft” and “hard” adaptations that may be spearheaded by individual port entities, but will require collaboration and support from a broad range of public and private sector stakeholders and from society at large. In particular, the essay highlights a need to shift to more holistic planning, investment and operation.     

Factors affecting spatial and temporal variability in material exchange between the Southern Everglades wetlands and Florida Bay (USA)

Physical and biological processes controlling spatial and temporal variations in material concentration and exchange between the Southern Everglades wetlands and Florida Bay were studied for 2.5 years in three of the five major creek systems draining the watershed. Daily total nitrogen (TN), and total phosphorus (TP) fluxes were measured for 2 years in Taylor River, and ten 10-day intensive studies were conducted in this creek to estimate the seasonal flux of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), total organic carbon (TOC), and suspended matter. Four 10-day studies were conducted simultaneously in Taylor, McCormick, and Trout Creeks to study the spatial variation in concentration and flux. The annual fluxes of TOC, TN, and TP from the Southern Everglades were estimated from regression equations. The Southern Everglades watershed, a 460-km² area that includes Taylor Slough and the area south of the C-111 canal, exported 7.1 g C m⁻², 0.46 g N m⁻², and 0.007 g P m⁻², annually. Everglades P flux is three to four orders of magnitude lower than published flux estimates from wetlands influenced by terrigenous sedimentary inputs. These low P flux values reflect both the inherently low P content of Everglades surface water and the efficiency of Everglades carbonate sediments and biota in conserving and recycling this limiting nutrient. The seasonal variation of freshwater input to the watershed was responsible for major temporal variations in N, P, and C export to Florida Bay; approximately 99% of the export occurred during the rainy season. Wind-driven forcing was most important during the later stages of the dry season when low freshwater head coincided with southerly winds, resulting in a net import of water and materials into the wetlands. We also observed an east to west decrease in TN:TP ratio from 212:1 to 127:1. Major spatial gradients in N:P ratios and nutrient concentration and flux among the creek were consistent with the westward decrease in surface water runoff from the P-limited Everglades and increased advection of relatively P-rich Gulf of Mexico (GOM) waters into Florida Bay. Comparison of measured nutrient flux from Everglades surface water inputs from this study with published estimates of other sources of nutrients to Florida Bay (i.e. atmospheric deposition, anthropogenic inputs from the Florida Keys, advection from the GOM) show that Everglades runoff represents only 2% of N inputs and 0.5% of P input to Florida Bay.