Recent progress in the operational forecasting of summer severe weather

Abstract

Summer severe weather (SSW) can strike suddenly and unexpectedly with disastrous consequences for human activity. Considerable progress has been made in the past ten years in the operational forecasting of SSW. Traditionally, SSW was defined to consist of tornadoes, strong winds, hail, lightning and heavy rain. Hazardous types of strong winds have recently been expanded to include microbursts, macrobursts and surfacing rear inflow jet damage behind mesoscale convective systems. Doppler radar was used to relate surface damage to the appropriate atmospheric phenomena, first diagnostically and then prognostically. This improvement in classification has fedback to and improved the forecast process. Concurrent progress has been made in the use of synoptic observations. The concept of helical wind profiles and improved knowledge of the role of dry mid‐level air has improved the forecasting of tornadoes and strong gusty winds. Moisture flux convergence, derived from surface measurements, shows great promise in identifying areas of storm initiation. Satellite imagery has been used to identify dynamical atmospheric boundaries. Numerical modelling of the interaction of environmental wind profiles and individual thunderstorms has greatly contributed to the understanding of SSW. Studies of spatial and temporal patterns of lightning, both specific cases and climatology, contribute to the forecasting of severe storms. Polarization radar results have shown progress in separating the signals of hail from those of rain and in the improved measurement of heavy rainfalls. Radar observation of clear air boundaries and their interactions show potential for the forecasting of thunderstorm initiation. Though not traditionally considered part of SSW, hurricanes that evolve into extra‐tropical storms share many of the same hazardous features. The progress in computing, communications and display technologies has also made substantial contributions to operational forecasting and to the dissemination of weather warnings.     

The Oxford Principles

Scientific momentum is increasing behind efforts to develop geoengineering options, but it is widely acknowledged that the challenges of geoengineering are as much political and social as they are technical. Legislators are looking for guidance on the governance of geoengineering research and possible deployment. The Oxford Principles are five high-level principles for geoengineering governance. This article explains their intended function and the core societal values which they attempt to capture. Finally, it proposes a framework for their implementation in a flexible governance architecture through the formulation of technology-specific research protocols.     

A lacustrine GDGT-temperature calibration from the Scandinavian Arctic to Antarctic: Renewed potential for the application of GDGT-paleothermometry in lakes

Quantitative climate reconstructions are fundamental to understand long-term trends in natural climate variability and to test climate models used to predict future climate change. Recent advances in molecular geochemistry have led to calibrations using glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (GDGTs), a group of temperature-sensitive membrane lipids found in Archaea and bacteria. GDGTs have been used to construct temperature indices for oceans (TEX₈₆ index) and soils (MBT/CBT index). The aim of this study is to examine GDGT-temperature relationships and assess the potential of constructing a GDGT-based palaeo-thermometer for lakes. We examine GDGT-temperature relationships using core top sediments from 90 lakes across a north-south transect from the Scandinavian Arctic to Antarctica including sites from Finland, Sweden, Siberia, the UK, Austria, Turkey, Ethiopia, Uganda, Chile, South Georgia and the Antarctic Peninsula. We examine a suite of 15 GDGTs, including compounds used in the TEX₈₆ and MBT/CBT indices and reflecting the broad range of GDGT inputs to small lake systems.GDGTs are present in varying proportions in all lakes examined. The TEX₈₆ index is not applicable to our sites because of the large relative proportions of soil derived and methanogenic components. Similarly, the MBT/CBT index is also not applicable and predicts temperatures considerably lower than those measured. We examine relationships between individual GDGT compounds and temperature, pH, conductivity and water depth. Temperature accounts for a large and statistically independent fraction of variation in branched GDGT composition. We propose a GDGT-temperature regression model with high accuracy and precision (R² = 0.88; RMSE = 2.0 °C; RMSEP = 2.1 °C) for use in lakes based on a subset of branched GDGT compounds and highlight the potential of this new method for reconstructing past temperatures using lake sediments.     

Is there the will to manage fisheries at a local level in the European Union? A case study from Shetland

The failure of the command and control approach to fisheries management has encouraged governments to look for new ways of balancing the requirement to conserve fish stocks and yet maintain a flow of benefits that will meet economic and social targets. In the quest to establish a system for sustaining production in the Common Pond, the European Union (EU) has begun to investigate alternatives to the current management system. This research paper examines the problems associated with the current management regime operating in the EU in the light of alternatives for managing the fisheries. The research seeks to establish whether, given the serious problems confronting the EU's fishing industries, fishermen would be prepared to accept change and offer their ideas and support to develop an alternative management system. The research draws on the opinions of fishermen from Shetland and discusses the findings gained from interviewing key informants in conjunction with the results of an opinion survey of skippers and boat owners.     

Mineralogical approaches to sourcing pipes and figurines from the eastern woodlands,U.S.A.

Provenance studies of stone artifacts often rely heavily upon chemical techniques such as neutron activation analysis. However, stone specimens with very similar chemical composition can have different mineralogies (distinctive crystalline structures as well as variations within the same mineral) that are not revealed by multielemental techniques. Because mineralogical techniques are often cheap and usually nondestructive, beginning with mineralogy allows the researcher to gain valuable information and then to be selective about how many samples are submitted for expensive and somewhat destructive chemical analysis, thus conserving both valuable samples and funds. Our University of Illinois team of archaeologists and geologists employs Portable Infrared Mineral Analyzer (PIMA) spectroscopy, X‐ray diffraction (XRD), and Sequential acid dissolution/XRD/Inductively coupled plasma (SAD‐XRD‐ICP) analyses. Two case studies of Hopewellian pipes and Mississippian figurines illustrate this mineralogical approach. The results for both studies identify sources relatively close to the sites where the artifacts were recovered: Sterling, Illinois (rather than Ohio) for the (Hopewell) pipes and Missouri (rather than Arkansas or Oklahoma) for the Cahokia figurines. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Chemical models of vitrinite reflectance evolution

A global kinetic model of vitrinite reflectance evolution is developed to illustrate a new approach to vitrinite reflectance modelling. The method utilizes quantitative pyrolysisgas Chromatographic data from isolated vitrinite kerogens to derive the concentrations of structurally specific moieties (alkylphenol precursors) in vitrinite kerogens as a function of rank. This data set is used to calibrate a gaussian distributed activation energy model for phenol-precursor loss from vitrinites using published burial histories. Phenol yield is then correlated with vitrinite reflectance. The predictive vitrinite reflectance model based on this phenol system is tested against a well from the US Gulf Coast area, the results being compared with a Lopatin model of the same well. This type of vitrinite reflectance model is numerically compatible with current generation kinetic models of hydrocarbon production from source rock kerogens, and has a better heating rate independence than Lopatin's method.

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Zusammenfassung Um eine neue Annäherung an das Modellieren der Vitrinit-Reflexion zu demonstrieren, wurde ein global-kinetisches Modell der Entwicklung der Vitrinit-Reflexion erstellt. Die Methode verwendet Daten von quantitativer Pyrolyse-Gas Chromatographie isolierten Vitrinitkerogens, um die Konzentration von strukturspezifischen Moieten (Alkylophenol-Vorläufer) in Vitrinitkerogen als Funktion der Reihenfolge zu erhalten. Verwendet werden diese Daten, um ein nach Gauss verteiltes Aktivierungsenergiemodell zu kalibrieren, das mit Hilfe von veröffentlichten Ablagerungsgeschichten den Phenol-Vorläuferverlust von Vitriniten beschreibt. Die Phenol-Ausbeute wird dann mit der Vitrinit-Reflexion korreliert. Das auf dem Phenolsystem basierende Vitrinit-Reflexionsmodell wird in einem Test einem Bohrloch an der amerikanischen Golfküste gegenübergestellt. Die Ergebnisse werden mit dem Lopatinmodell des selben Bohrlochs verglichen. Diese Art eines Vitrinit-Reflexionsmodells ist numerisch wettbewerbsfähig mit der heutigen Generation kinetischer Modelle der Kohlenwasserstofferzeugung aus Trägergesteinskerogenen. Außerdem ist seine Unabhängigkeit von der Erhitzungsrate größer als mit der Lopatin-Methode.

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Résumé L'auteur présente un modèle cinétique global de l'évaluation du pouvoir réflecteur de la vitrinite, afin d'illuster une approche nouvelle dans la modélisation de ce pourvoir réflecteur. Cette méthode utilise des données quantitatives fournies par la pyrolyse combinée à la Chromatographie en phase gazeuse et relatives à des kérogènes de vitrinite. A partir de ces données, on exprime les concentrations des fractions à structure spécifique dans les kérogènes vitrinitiques en fonction du degré d'évolution. A partir de cet ensemble de données, on établit un modèle de l'énergie d'activation selon une distribution gaussienne, applicable à la perte de phénol-précurseur dans les vitrinites, en se référant à cet effet aux déroulements historiques de l'enfouissement fournis par la littérature. La production de phénol est alors mise en relation avec le pourvoir réflecteur de la vitrinite. Le modèle du pouvoir réflecteur prévisible, basé sur ce système des phénols a été contrôlé dans un forage de la côte du golfe du Mexique (USA), et les résultats comparés à ceux du modèle de Lopatin appliqué au même forage. Le modèle présenté est numériquement compatible avec les modèles cinétiques habituels qui rendent compte de la production d'hydrocarbure à partir des kérogènes des roches-mères; il présente une meilleure indépendance que la méthode de Lopatin par rapport au taux d'échauffement.

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Late Holocene lake level dynamics inferred from magnetic susceptibility and stable oxygen isotope data: Lake Elsinore, southern California (USA)

Southern California faces an imminent freshwater shortage. To better assess the future impact of this water crisis, it is essential that we develop continental archives of past hydrological variability. Using four sediment cores from Lake Elsinore in Southern California, we reconstruct late Holocene (3800 calendar years B.P.) hydrological change using a twentieth-century calibrated, proxy methodology. We compared magnetic susceptibility from Lake Elsinore deep basin sediments, lake level from Lake Elsinore, and regional winter precipitation data over the twentieth century to calibrate the late Holocene lake sediment record. The comparison revealed a strong positive, first-order relationship between the three variables. As a working hypothesis, we suggest that periods of greater precipitation produce higher lake levels. Greater precipitation also increases the supply of detritus (i.e., magnetic-rich minerals) from the lake's surrounding drainage basin into the lake environment. As a result, magnetic susceptibility values increase during periods of high lake level. We apply this modern calibration to late Holocene sediments from the lake's littoral zone. As an independent verification of this hypothesis, we analyzed ¹⁸O_(calcite), interpreted as a proxy for variations in the precipitation:evaporation ratio, which reflect first order hydrological variability. The results of this verification support our hypothesis that magnetic susceptibility records regional hydrological change as related to precipitation and lake level. Using both proxy data, we analyzed the past 3800 calendar years of hydrological variability. Our analyses indicate a long period of dry, less variable climate between 3800 and 2000 calendar years B.P. followed by a wet, more variable climate to the present. These results suggest that droughts of greater magnitude and duration than those observed in the modern record have occurred in the recent geological past. This conclusion presents insight to the potential impact of future droughts on the over-populated, water-poor region of Southern California.     

Updating the Phase 1 habitat map of Wales, UK, using satellite sensor data

The Phase 1 Survey is the most comprehensive and widely used national level map of semi-natural habitats in Wales. However, the survey was based largely on field survey and was conducted over several decades, before being completed in 1997. Given that resources for a repeat survey were limited, this study has used an object-orientated rule-based classification implemented within eCognition of multi-temporal satellite sensor data acquired between 2003 and 2006 to map semi-natural habitats and agricultural land across Wales, thereby allowing a progressive update of the Phase 1 Survey. The classification of objects to Phase 1 habitat classes was undertaken in two steps; firstly the landscape of Wales was divided into objects using orthorectified SPOT-5 High Resolution Geometric (HRG) reflectance data (10 m spatial resolution) and Land Parcel Information System (LPIS) boundaries. A rule-base was then developed to progressively discriminate and map the distribution of 105 sub-habitats across Wales based on time-series of SPOT HRG, Terra-1 Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) and Indian Remote Sensing Satellite (IRS) LISS-3 data, derived datasets (e.g., vegetation indices, fractional images) and ancillary information (e.g., topography). The rules coupled knowledge of ecology and the information content of these remote sensing data using a combination of thresholds, Boolean operations and fuzzy membership functions. A second rule-base was then developed to translate the more detailed sub-habitat classification to Phase 1 habitat classes. Indicative accuracies of the revised Phase 1 mapping, based on comparisons with the later Phase 2 survey (for selected habitats), were >80% overall and typically between 70% and 90% for many classes. Through this exercise, Wales has become the first country in Europe to produce a national map of habitats (as opposed to land cover) through object-orientated classification of satellite sensor data. Furthermore, the approach can be adapted to allow continual monitoring of the extent and condition of habitats and agricultural land.     

Rock physics analysis for time-lapse seismic at Schiehallion Field, North Sea

Rock physics analysis plays a vital role in time‐lapse seismic interpretation because it provides the link between changes in rock and fluid properties and the resulting seismic data response. In this case study of the Schiehallion Field, we discuss a number of issues that commonly arise in rock physics analyses for time‐lapse studies. We show that:

• 1 Logarithmic fits of dry bulk (K_dry) and shear (G_dry) moduli vs. effective pressure (P_eff) are superior to polynomial fits.
• 2 2D surface fits of K_dry and G_dry over porosity (φ) and effective pressure using all the core data simultaneously are more useful and accurate than separate 1D fits over φ and P_eff for each individual core.
• 3 One average set (facies) of K_dry(φ, P_eff) and G_dry(φ, P_eff) can be chosen to represent adequately the entire Schiehallion reservoir.
• 4 Saturated velocities and densities modelled by fluid substitution of K_dry(φ, P_eff), G_dry(φ, P_eff) and the dry bulk density ρ_dry(φ) compare favourably with well‐log velocities and densities.
• 5 P‐ and S‐wave impedance values resulting from fluid substitution of K_dry(φ, P_eff), G_dry(φ, P_eff) and ρ_dry(φ) show that the largest impedance changes occur for high porosities and low effective pressures.
• 6 Uncertainties in K_dry(φ, P_eff) and G_dry(φ, P_eff) derived for individual cores can be used to generate error surfaces for these moduli that represent bounds for quantifying uncertainties in seismic modelling or pressure–saturation inversion.