The role of terrestrial snow cover in the climate system

Snow cover is known to exert a strong influence on climate, but quantifying its impact is difficult. This study investigates the global impact of terrestrial snow cover through a pair of GCM simulations run with prognostic snow cover and with all snow cover on land eliminated (NOSNOWCOVER). In this experiment all snowfall over land was converted into its liquid–water equivalent upon reaching the surface. Compared with the control run, NOSNOWCOVER produces mean-annual surface air temperatures up to 5 K higher over northern North America and Eurasia and 8–10 K greater during winter. The globally averaged warming of 0.8 K is one-third as large as the model’s response to 2 × CO₂ forcing. The pronounced surface heating propagates throughout the troposphere, causing changes in surface and upper-air circulation patterns. Despite the large atmospheric warming, the absence of an insulating snow pack causes soil temperatures in NOSNOWCOVER to fall throughout northern Asia and Canada, including extreme wintertime cooling of over 20 K in Siberia and a 70% increase in permafrost area. The absence of snow melt water also affects extratropical surface hydrology, causing significantly drier upper-layer soils and dramatic changes in the annual cycle of runoff. Removing snow cover also drastically affects extreme weather. Extreme cold-air outbreaks (CAOs)—defined relative to the control climatology—essentially disappear in NOSNOWCOVER. The loss of CAOs appears to stem from both the local effects of eliminating snow cover in mid-latitudes and a remote effect over source regions in the Arctic, where −40°C air masses are no longer able to form.     

Defining probability of saturation with indicator kriging on hard and soft data

In humid, well-vegetated areas, such as in the northeastern US, runoff is most commonly generated from relatively small portions of the landscape becoming completely saturated, however, little is known about the spatial and temporal behavior of these saturated regions. Indicator kriging provides a way to use traditional water table data to quantify probability of saturation to evaluate predicted spatial distributions of runoff generation risk, especially for the new generation of water quality models incorporating saturation excess runoff theory. When spatial measurements of a variable are transformed to binary indicators (i.e., 1 if above a given threshold value and 0 if below) and the resulting indicator semivariogram is modeled, indicator kriging produces the probability of the measured variable to exceed the threshold value. Indicator kriging gives quantified probability of saturation or, consistent with saturation excess runoff theory, runoff generation risk with depth to water table as the variable and the threshold set near the soil surface. The probability of saturation for a 120 m × 180 m hillslope based upon 43 measurements of depth to water table is investigated with indicator semivariograms for six storm events. The indicator semivariograms show high spatial structure in saturated regions with large antecedent rainfall conditions. The temporal structure of the data is used to generate interpolated (soft) data to supplement measured (hard) data. This improved the spatial structure of the indicator semivariograms for lower antecedent rainfall conditions. Probability of saturation was evaluated through indicator kriging incorporating soft data showing, based on this preliminary study, highly connected regions of saturation as expected for the wet season (April through May) in the Catskill Mountain region of New York State. Supplementation of hard data with soft data incorporates physical hydrology of the hillslope to capture significant patterns not available when using hard data alone for indicator kriging. With the need for water quality models incorporating appropriate runoff generation risk estimates on the rise, this manner of data will lay the groundwork for future model evaluation and development.     

Modelling the DC electrical response of fully and partially saturated Permo-Triassic sandstone

Results from a laboratory investigation into the electrical properties of fully and partially saturated Wildmoor Triassic Sandstone have been modelled using the Archie, Waxman–Smits and Hanai–Bruggeman equations. The results demonstrate the limitation of using simple relationships to describe samples when the matrix resistivity ρ_r is not significantly greater than the saturating electrolyte resistivity ρ_w. In these situations Archie's parameters m and n are not accurately determined. Conversely, the more sophisticated Waxman–Smits and Hanai–Bruggeman models provide parameters that better describe the electrical properties of the rock and are able to identify heterogeneity between samples that would otherwise be missed. The ranges of values for matrix resistivity (49 < ρ_r < 161 Ωm) and cementation factor (1.6 < m < 2.1) obtained from the Hanai–Bruggeman model indicate significant variation between samples. Comparison of laboratory‐determined values for cation exchange capacity (0.06 < Q_v < 0.51 meq/mL) and those obtained from the Waxman–Smits model (0.09 < Q_v < 0.55 meq/mL) indicates a very strong correlation, suggesting this model is appropriate for describing the rock. There is good agreement between parameters modelled using fully and partially saturated versions of both the Hanai–Bruggeman and Waxman–Smits equations, indicating that the data are consistent with these models and that the assumptions made are appropriate.     

Observed Exoplanets and Intelligent Life

If intelligent life were common in the Universe, should we not be aware of it on Earth through contact with advanced space ships and automatic probes? Would we not at least expect to intercept communication signals between space travellers? That this is not found has led to much speculation in the past. Recent discoveries of planets around other stars (called here exoplanets) and, separately, recent discoveries in the evolution of life on Earth, including Homo sapiens, allow this question to be considered again but now with more information than before. This is the subject of the present paper. The study involves aspects of physics and chemistry in combination with biological studies. It is concluded here that the places where technologically capable intelligent life might be expected to be found in our Galaxy are so few that any such “centres of civilisation” must be separated by large distances, probably in excess of 50 light years. If true, this would make the different centres essentially isolated and would suggest that each manifestation of advanced intelligent life is a purely local development. This would agree with our experience of aloneness. Nevertheless, the number of centres throughout the Universe would still be astronomically large, even if each galaxy had only one centre. An hypothesis is proposed which could account for the existence of such centres in this form.     

A mid-twentieth century reduction in tropical upwelling inferred from coralline trace element proxies

The Cariaco Basin is an important archive of past climate variability given its response to inter- and extratropical climate forcing and the accumulation of annually laminated sediments within an anoxic water column. This study presents high-resolution surface coral trace element records (Montastrea annularis and Siderastrea siderea) from Isla Tortuga, Venezuela, located within the upwelling center of this region. A two-fold reduction in Cd/Ca ratios (3.5–1.7 nmol/mol) is observed from 1946 to 1952 with no concurrent shift in Ba/Ca ratios. This reduction agrees with the hydrographic distribution of dissolved cadmium and barium and their expected response to upwelling. Significant anthropogenic variability is also observed from Pb/Ca analysis, observing three lead maxima since 1920. Kinetic control of trace element ratios is inferred from an interspecies comparison of Cd/Ca and Ba/Ca ratios (consistent with the Sr/Ca kinetic artifact), but these artifacts are smaller than the environmental signal and do not explain the Cd/Ca transition. The trace element records agree with historical climate data and differ from sedimentary faunal abundance records, suggesting a linear response to North Atlantic extratropical forcing cannot account for the observed historical variability in this region.     

Effects of an anisotropic overburden on azimuthal amplitude analysis in horizontal transverse isotropic media

Azimuthal amplitude variation in fractured media, commonly used to characterize fracture systems, is a function not only of reflection at the target but also of transmission through the overburden. This study investigates the sensitivity of amplitudes to various anisotropic overburden effects in horizontal transverse isotropic (HTI) media. Issues considered here are geometric spreading, transmission coefficients and attenuation due to fluid flow. Their influence on the azimuthal amplitude variation is evaluated quantitatively over a wide model space.
Only the variation of transmission coefficients with azimuth proves to be negligible. Geometric spreading alters the amplitude signature significantly over a relatively narrow range of models, and its influence increases with layer thickness. The most severe effect of an anisotropic fractured overburden is attenuation due to fluid flow between the cracks or the cracks and pores in the surrounding matrix. The relative changes in amplitudes between the symmetry directions due to anisotropic absorption are of the same order of magnitude as the changes in the reflection coefficient. The effect is significant over a very wide range of petrophysical parameters. Thus it leads to considerable problems in the amplitude analysis for almost any case of an overburden that contains cracks and pores. A correct amplitude analysis at the target will not be possible unless the effect of attenuation is removed.     

Mamaku Ignimbrite: a caldera-forming ignimbrite erupted from a compositionally zoned magma chamber in Taupo Volcanic Zone, New Zealand

Mamaku Ignimbrite was deposited during the formation of Rotorua Caldera, Taupo Volcanic Zone, New Zealand, 220–230 ka. Its outflow sheet forms a fan north, northwest and southwest of Rotorua, capping the Mamaku–Kaimai Plateau. Mamaku Ignimbrite can be divided into a partly phreatomagmatic basal sequence, and a main sequence which comprises lower, middle, and upper ignimbrite. The internal stratigraphy indicates that it was emplaced progressively from a pyroclastic density current of varying energy that became less particulate away from source. Gradational contacts between lower, middle, and upper ignimbrite are consistent with it being deposited during one eruptive event from the same source. Variations in lithic clast content and coexistence of different pumice types through the ignimbrite sequence indicate that caldera collapse occurred throughout the eruption, but particularly when middle Mamaku Ignimbrite was deposited and in the final stages of deposition of upper Mamaku Ignimbrite. Maximum lithic data and the location of lithic lag breccias in upper Mamaku Ignimbrite confirm Rotorua Caldera as the source. At least 120 m of geothermally altered intra-caldera Mamaku Ignimbrite occurs inside Rotorua Caldera. Pumice clasts in the Mamaku Ignimbrite are dacite to high-silica rhyolite and can be chemically divided into three types: high–silica rhyolite (type 1), rhyolite (type 2), and dacite (type 3). All are petrogenetically related and types 1 and 2 may be derived by up to 20% crystal fractionation from the type 3 dacite. All three types probably resided in a single, gradationally zoned magma chamber. Andesitic juvenile fragments are found only in upper Mamaku Ignimbrite and inferred to represent a discrete magma that was injected into the silicic chamber and is considered to have accumulated as a sill at the base of the magma chamber. The contrast in density between the andesitic and silicic magmas did not allow eruption of the andesitic fragments during the deposition of lower and middle Mamaku Ignimbrite. The advanced stage of caldera collapse, late in the main eruptive phase, created withdrawal dynamics that allowed andesitic magma to reach the surface as fragments within upper Mamaku Ignimbrite.     

Fracture characterization from walkaround VSPs

A walkaround VSP is a novel acquisition geometry comprising multiple sources azimuthally distributed around a fixed multi-component receiver at approximately the same offset. Such a configuration allows the robust measurement of fracture-induced anisotropy by the analysis of certain seismic attributes with respect to azimuth.     

Analysis of wax hydrocarbons in petroleum source rocks from the Damintun depression, eastern China, using high temperature gas chromatography

A detailed organic geochemical study; utilising petrography, biomarker hydrocarbon analysis and high temperature GC analysis of extractable wax hydrocarbon constituents was performed on four marginally oil window-mature source rocks from the Shahejie Formation (Eocene), Damintun depression in eastern China. The main maceral components in the source rocks were vitrinite, liptinite and exinite, with vitrinite being more abundant (>50 vol.%) in organic-lean samples whose TOC contents were between 1 and 2 wt.%. Large differences in pristane/phytane ratios suggested that the organic-rich samples were deposited in a less oxic depositional environment than that for the organic-lean rocks. The distribution of extractable wax hydrocarbons, determined by high temperature GC, showed a marked difference between these two sample types. The organic-rich samples contained high molecular weight hydrocarbons (HMWHCs) dominated by macrocrystalline n-alkanes (n-C₂₃–n-C₃₇, typically maximising at n-C₂₉), while the organic-lean samples contained lower amounts of extractable wax hydrocarbons but were relatively rich in microcrystalline components (> n-C₃₅). In all source rocks (Es3 and Es4), a noticeable odd-over-even predominance (OEP) of n-alkane chain lengths (up to n-C₆₅) was evident, consistent with a direct biological origin for the long n-alkyl chains. They were most probably formed during diagenesis from decarboxylation of predominantly even-carbon-numbered aliphatic acids originating from higher plant or lacustrine algal sources and/or were directly biosynthesised in hydrocarbon form. At least two other homologous series of branched/cyclic HMWHCs were observed, one of which was confirmed as a series of branched alkanes (probably methyl-branched). The carbon number distribution patterns of HMWHCs may be primarily controlled by thermal maturity and biogenic source input as well as being influenced by diagenetic reactions governed by depositional environmental conditions, as shown previously [Carlson, R.M.K., Teerman, S.C., Moldowan, J.M., Jacobson, S.R., Chan, E.I., Dorrough, K.S., Seetoo, W.C., Mertani, B., 1993. High temperature gas chromatography of high wax oils. In: Indonesian Petroleum Association, 22nd Annual Convention Proceedings. Jakarta, Indonesian, pp. 483–507. Carlson, R.M.K., Jacobsen, S.R., Moldowan, J.M., Chan E.I., 1994. Potential application of high temperature gas chromatography to Middle Eastern petroleum exploration and production. In: Al-Husseini, M.I. (Ed.), Geo'94, Vol 1., Selected Middle East Papers from The Middle East Petroleum Geoscience Conference, 1994; Gulf PetroLink. Manama, Bahrain, pp. 258–267]. Our study indicates for the first time that Es3 source rocks as well as Es4 facies contain HMWHCs. The distributions of extractable wax hydrocarbons suggest that both Es4 and Es3 members may potentially serve as important parent source rocks for generating waxy petroleum in this region.     

Stable isotope evidence for multiple fluid regimes during carbonate cementation of the Upper Tertiary Hazeva Formation, Dead Sea Graben, southern Israel

Stable carbon- and oxygen-isotope compositions of calcite and dolomite cements have been used to understand porewater evolution in the Upper Tertiary Hazeva Formation within the Dead Sea Graben, southern Israel. Sandstone samples were obtained from four boreholes in three tectonic blocks of the graben over depths of 253–6448 m, a variation that largely reflects differential subsidence of individual fault-bounded blocks. Early carbonate cements dominate diagenesis. Calcite occurs at <1600 m, but was replaced by dolomite at greater depths. Dolomite at 1600–2700 m is Fe-poor (<0.8 mol% FeCO₃), and at 4700–6200 m, Fe-rich (0.5–7.2 mol% FeCO₃). Magnesite, anhydrite and halite are the final diagenetic phases. Calcite has positively correlated δ¹⁸O (+21‰ to +25‰) and δ¹³C (−6‰ to −2‰) values that generally decrease with depth. Dolomite has a wider variation in δ¹⁸O (+18‰ to +30‰) and δ¹³C (−8‰ to −1‰) values, which also generally are lower with increasing depth. However, the δ¹³C and δ¹⁸O values of dolomite from the uppermost 400 m of the Hazeva Formation in the Sedom Deep-1 borehole are anomalous in spanning the entire range of stable carbon and oxygen isotopic compositions over this relatively small interval.The decreasing dolomite δ¹³C values likely indicate an increased contribution of carbon from organic sources with increasing depth. Except for the uppermost 400 m, Hazeva Formation dolomite in the Sedom Deep-1 borehole has stable carbon-isotope compositions that imply initial dolomitization at much shallower levels, prior to the preferential subsidence of this tectonic block. The oxygen isotopic compositions of the calcite cement are best explained by equilibration at present burial temperatures (≤55 °C) with porewater of meteoric origin. Its δ¹⁸O values increased from −5‰ at the shallowest depths to 0‰ at 1600 m. The dolomite oxygen isotopic compositions also reflect equilibration at present burial temperatures with porewaters ranging from 0‰ at 1600 m to +7‰ at 3600 m (100 °C). In the deepest fault block (Sedom Deep-1 borehole), however, increasingly Fe-rich dolomite has (re)equilibrated with porewater whose δ¹⁸O values decreased from +9‰ at 4750 m (120 °C) to +1‰ to +2‰ by 6200 m (150 °C).Much of the dolomite likely formed at relatively shallow depths from saline brines derived from precursors to the Dead Sea. These infiltrated the Hazeva Formation, mixing with and largely displacing meteoric water, and dolomitizing calcite. Rock–water ratios tended to be high during these processes. However, the upper 400 m of the Hazeva Formation in the deepest fault block were likely deposited during its rapid tectonic subsidence, and largely escaped the initial style of dolomitization pervasive elsewhere in the study area. These sediments were also capped by evaporites. This relatively thin interval likely became a preferential conduit for brines that escaped underlying and overlying strata, including the Fe-rich, lower ¹⁸O fluids (evolved seawater?) present in the deepest part of the graben. These rocks present the most promising target for the passage and accumulation of hydrocarbons in the study area.