Optical spectroscopy of two overlapping, flux-density-limited samples of radio sources in the North Ecliptic Cap, selected at 38 and 151 MHz

We present the results of optical spectroscopy of two flux-density-limited samples of radio sources selected at frequencies of 38 and 151 MHz in the same region around the North Ecliptic Cap, the 8C-NEC and 7C- iii samples respectively. Both samples are selected at flux density levels ≈20 times fainter than samples based on the 3C catalogue. They are amongst the first low-frequency selected samples with no spectral or angular size selection for which almost complete redshift information has been obtained, and contain many of the lowest-luminosity z >2 radio galaxies so far discovered. They will therefore provide a valuable resource for understanding the cosmic evolution of radio sources and their hosts and environments. The 151-MHz 7C- iii sample is selected to have S ₁₅₁≥0.5 Jy and is the more spectroscopically complete; out of 54 radio sources fairly reliable redshifts have been obtained for 44 objects. The 8C sample has a flux limit of S ₃₈≥1.3 Jy and contains 58 sources of which 46 have fairly reliable redshifts. We discuss possible biases in the observed redshift distribution, and some interesting individual objects, including a number of cases of probable gravitational lensing. Using the 8C-NEC and 7C- iii samples in conjunction, we form the first sample selected on low-frequency flux in the rest-frame of the source, rather than the usual selection on flux density in the observed frame. This allows us to remove the bias associated with an increasing rest-frame selection frequency with redshift. We investigate the difference this selection makes to correlations of radio source properties with redshift and luminosity by comparing the results from traditional flux-density selection with our new method. We show in particular that flux-density-based selection leads to an overestimate of the steepness of the correlation of radio source size with redshift.     

Estimating β from redshift-space distortions in the 2dF galaxy survey

Given the failure of existing models for redshift-space distortions to provide a highly accurate measure of the β -parameter, and the ability of forthcoming surveys to obtain data with very low random errors, it becomes necessary to develop better models for these distortions. Here we review the failures of the commonly used velocity dispersion models and present an empirical method for extracting β from the quadrupole statistic that has little systematic offset over a wide range of β and cosmologies. This empirical model is then applied to an ensemble of mock 2dF southern strip surveys, to illustrate the technique and see how accurately we can recover the true value of β . We compare this treatment with the error we expect to find caused only by the finite volume of the survey. We find that non-linear effects reduce the range of scales over which β can be fitted, and introduce covariances between nearby modes in addition to those introduced by the convolution with the survey window function. The result is that we are only able to constrain β to a 1 σ accuracy of 25 per cent ( β =0.55±0.14 for the cosmological model considered). We explore one possible means of reducing this error, that of cluster collapse, and show that accurate application of this method can greatly reduce the effect of non-linearities, improving the determination of β . We conclude by demonstrating that, when the contaminating effects of clusters are dealt with, this simple analysis of the full 2dF survey yields β =0.55±0.04. For this model, this represents a determination of β to an accuracy of 8 per cent and hence an important constraint on the cosmological density parameter Ω₀.     

Ecohydrologic Process Modeling of Mountain Block Groundwater Recharge

Regional mountain block recharge (MBR) is a key component of alluvial basin aquifer systems typical of the western United States. Yet neither water scientists nor resource managers have a commonly available and reasonably invoked quantitative method to constrain MBR rates. Recent advances in landscape-scale ecohydrologic process modeling offer the possibility that meteorological data and land surface physical and vegetative conditions can be used to generate estimates of MBR. A water balance was generated for a temperate 24,600-ha mountain watershed, elevation 1565 to 3207 m, using the ecosystem process model Biome-BGC (BioGeochemical Cycles) ( Running and Hunt 1993 ). Input data included remotely sensed landscape information and climate data generated with the Mountain Climate Simulator (MT-CLIM) ( Running et al. 1987 ). Estimated mean annual MBR flux into the crystalline bedrock terrain is 99,000 m³/d, or approximately 19% of annual precipitation for the 2003 water year. Controls on MBR predictions include evapotranspiration (radiation limited in wet years and moisture limited in dry years), soil properties, vegetative ecotones (significant at lower elevations), and snowmelt (dominant recharge process). The ecohydrologic model is also used to investigate how climatic and vegetative controls influence recharge dynamics within three elevation zones. The ecohydrologic model proves useful for investigating controls on recharge to mountain blocks as a function of climate and vegetation. Future efforts will need to investigate the uncertainty in the modeled water balance by incorporating an advanced understanding of mountain recharge processes, an ability to simulate those processes at varying scales, and independent approaches to calibrating MBR estimates.     

Thermal structure and heat loss at the summit crater of an active lava dome

Forward-Looking Infrared (FLIR) nighttime thermal images were used to extract the thermal and morphological properties for the surface of a blocky-to-rubbley lava mass active within the summit crater of the Caliente vent at Santiaguito lava dome (Guatemala). Thermally the crater was characterized by three concentric regions: a hot outer annulus of loose fine material at 150–400°C, an inner cold annulus of blocky lava at 40–80°C, and a warm central core at 100–200°C comprising younger, hotter lava. Intermittent explosions resulted in thermal renewal of some surfaces, mostly across the outer annulus where loose, fine, fill material was ejected to expose hotter, underlying, material. Surface heat flux densities (radiative + free convection) were dominated by losses from the outer annulus (0.3–1.5 × 10⁴  s⁻¹m⁻²), followed by the hot central core (0.1–0.4 × 10⁴ J s⁻¹m⁻²) and cold annulus (0.04–0.1 × 10⁴ J s⁻¹m⁻²). Overall surface power output was also dominated by the outer annulus region (31–176 MJ s⁻¹), but the cold annulus contributed equal power (2.41–7.07 MJ s⁻¹) as the hot central core (2.68–6.92 MJ s⁻¹) due to its greater area. Cooled surfaces (i.e. the upper thermal boundary layer separating surface temperatures from underlying material at magmatic temperatures) across the central core and cold annulus had estimated thicknesses, based on simple conductive model, of 0.3–2.2 and 1.5–4.3 m. The stability of the thermal structure through time and between explosions indicates that it is linked to a deeper structural control likely comprising a central massive plug, feeding lava flow from the SW rim of the crater, surrounded by an arcuate, marginal fracture zone through which heat and mass can preferentially flow.     

Thermal-image-derived dynamics of vertical ash plumes at Santiaguito volcano,Guatemala

Vertical ash plumes were imaged at Santiaguito (Guatemala) using a thermal camera to capture plume ascent dynamics. The plumes comprised a convecting plume front fed by a steady feeder plume. Of the 25 plumes imaged, 24 had a gas thrust region within which ascent velocities were 15–50 m s⁻¹. A transition to buoyant ascent occurred 20 to 50 m above the vent, where ascent velocities declined to 4–15 m s⁻¹. Plumes that attained greater heights had higher heat contents, wider feeder plumes and higher buoyant ascent velocities.     

Developing an Event Tree for probabilistic hazard and risk assessment at Vesuvius

Probabilistic characterizations of possible future eruptive scenarios at Vesuvius volcano are elaborated and organized within a risk-based framework. In the EXPLORIS project, a wide variety of topics relating to this basic problem have been pursued: updates of historical data, reinterpretation of previous geological field data and the collection of new fieldwork results, the development of novel numerical modelling codes and of risk assessment techniques have all been completed. To achieve coherence, many diverse strands of evidence had to be unified within a formalised structure, and linked together by expert knowledge. For this purpose, a Vesuvius ‘Event Tree’ (ET) was created to summarise in a numerical-graphical form, at different levels of detail, all the relative likelihoods relating to the genesis and style of eruption, development and nature of volcanic hazards, and the probabilities of occurrence of different volcanic risks in the next eruption crisis. The Event Tree formulation provides a logical pathway connecting generic probabilistic hazard assessment to quantitative risk evaluation. In order to achieve a complete parameterization for this all-inclusive approach, exhaustive hazard and risk models were needed, quantified with comprehensive uncertainty distributions for all factors involved, rather than simple ‘best-estimate’ or nominal values. Thus, a structured expert elicitation procedure was implemented to complement more traditional data analysis and interpretative approaches. The structure of the Vesuvius Event Tree is presented, and some of the data analysis findings and elicitation outcomes that have provided initial indicative probability distributions to be associated with each of its branches are summarized. The Event Tree extends from initiating volcanic eruption events and hazards right through to human impact and infrastructure consequences, with the complete tree and its parameterisation forming a quantitative synoptic framework for comprehensive hazard evaluation and mapping of risk impacts. The organization of the Event Tree allows easy updating, as and when new information becomes available.     

Contrasting styles of explosive eruption at Sete Cidades,São Miguel,Azores, in the last 5000 years: Hazard implications from modelling

The deposits of three eruptions in the last 5000 years are described in detail in order to constrain eruptive parameters and allow a quantitative assessment of the hazard from a range of explosive eruption types at Sete Cidades volcano, São Miguel, Azores. These deposits include: the Caldeira Seca eruption (P17) which occurred around 600 yr BP, which was the last explosive event from inside the Sete Cidades caldera, the P11 eruption, dated at 2220 ± 70 yr BP, and the undated P8 eruption (< 3000 yr BP). These deposits were chosen to represent the range of likely explosive activity from the caldera.     

Zeolitization of intracaldera sediments and rhyolitic rocks in the 1.25 Ma lake of Valles caldera,New Mexico,USA

Quantitative X-ray diffraction analysis of about 80 rhyolite and associated lacustrine rocks has characterized previously unrecognized zeolitic alteration throughout the Valles caldera resurgent dome. The alteration assemblage consists primarily of smectite–clinoptilolite–mordenite–silica, which replaces groundmass and fills voids, especially in the tuffs and lacustrine rocks. Original rock textures are routinely preserved. Mineralization typically extends to depths of only a few tens of meters and resembles shallow “caldera-type zeolitization” as defined by Utada et al. [Utada, M., Shimizu, M., Ito, T., Inoue, A., 1999. Alteration of caldera-forming rocks related to the Sanzugawa volcanotectonic depression, northeast Honshu, Japan — with special reference to “caldera-type zeolitization.” Resource Geol. Spec. Issue No. 20, 129–140]. Geology and ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar dates limit the period of extensive zeolite growth to roughly the first 30 kyr after the current caldera formed (ca. 1.25 to 1.22 Ma). Zeolitic alteration was promoted by saturation of shallow rocks with alkaline lake water (a mixture of meteoric waters and degassed hydrothermal fluids) and by high thermal gradients caused by cooling of the underlying magma body and earliest post-caldera rhyolite eruptions. Zeolitic alteration of this type is not found in the later volcanic and lacustrine rocks of the caldera moat (≤ 0.8 Ma) suggesting that later lake waters were cooler and less alkaline. The shallow zeolitic alteration does not have characteristics resembling classic, alkaline lake zeolite deposits (no analcime, erionite, or chabazite) nor does it contain zeolites common in high-temperature hydrothermal systems (laumontite or wairakite). Although aerially extensive, the early zeolitic alteration does not form laterally continuous beds and are consequently, not of economic significance.     

A long-term volcanic hazard event tree for Teide-Pico Viejo stratovolcanoes (Tenerife,Canary Islands)

We propose a long-term volcanic hazards event tree for Teide-Pico Viejo stratovolcanoes, two complex alkaline composite volcanoes that have erupted 1.8–3 km³ of mafic and felsic magmas from different vent sites during the last 35 ka. This is the maximum period that can be investigated from surface geology and also represents an upper time limit for the appearance of the first phonolites on that volcano. The whole process of the event tree construction was divided into three stages. The first stage included the determination of the spatial probability of vent opening for basaltic and phonolitic eruptions, based on the available geological and geophysical data. The second, involved the analysis of the different eruption types that have characterised the volcanic activity from Teide during this period. The third stage focussed on the generation of the event tree from the information obtained in the two previous steps and from the application of a probabilistic analysis on the occurrence of each possible eruption type. As for other volcanoes, the structure of the Teide-Pico Viejo Event Tree was subdivided into several steps of eruptive progression from general to more specific events. The precursory phase was assumed as an unrest episode of any geologic origin (magmatic, hydrothermal or tectonic), which could be responsible for a clear increase of volcanic activity revealed by geophysical and geochemical monitoring. According to the present characteristics of Teide-Pico Viejo and their past history, we started by considering whether the unrest episode would lead to a sector collapse or not. If the sector collapse does not occur but an eruption is expected, this could be either from the central vents or from any of the volcanoes' flanks. In any of these cases, there are several possibilities according to what has been observed in the period considered in our study. In the case that a sector collapse occurs and is followed by an eruption we considered it as a flank eruption. We conducted an experts elicitation judgement to assign probabilities to the different possibilities indicated in the event tree. We assumed long term estimations based on existing geological and historical data for the last 35 Ka, which gave us a minimum estimate as the geological record for such a long period is incomplete. However, to estimate probabilities for a short term forecast, for example during an unrest episode, we would need to include in the event tree additional information from the monitoring networks, as any possible precursors that may be identified could tell us in which direction the system will evolve. Therefore, we propose to develop future versions of the event tree to include also the precursors that might be expected on each path during the initial stages of a new eruptive event.