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81.
Estimating present day extreme water level exceedance probabilities around the coastline of Australia: tropical cyclone-induced storm surges 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
Ivan D. Haigh Leigh R. MacPherson Matthew S. Mason E. M. S. Wijeratne Charitha B. Pattiaratchi Ryan P. Crompton Steve George 《Climate Dynamics》2014,42(1-2):139-157
The incidence of major storm surges in the last decade have dramatically emphasized the immense destructive capabilities of extreme water level events, particularly when driven by severe tropical cyclones. Given this risk, it is vitally important that the exceedance probabilities of extreme water levels are accurately evaluated to inform risk-based flood and erosion management, engineering and for future land-use planning and to ensure the risk of catastrophic structural failures due to under-design or expensive wastes due to over-design are minimised. Australia has a long history of coastal flooding from tropical cyclones. Using a novel integration of two modeling techniques, this paper provides the first estimates of present day extreme water level exceedance probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia, and the first estimates that combine the influence of astronomical tides, storm surges generated by both extra-tropical and tropical cyclones, and seasonal and inter-annual variations in mean sea level. Initially, an analysis of tide gauge records has been used to assess the characteristics of tropical cyclone-induced surges around Australia. However, given the dearth (temporal and spatial) of information around much of the coastline, and therefore the inability of these gauge records to adequately describe the regional climatology, an observationally based stochastic tropical cyclone model has been developed to synthetically extend the tropical cyclone record to 10,000 years. Wind and pressure fields derived for these synthetically generated events have then been used to drive a hydrodynamic model of the Australian continental shelf region with annual maximum water levels extracted to estimate exceedance probabilities around the coastline. To validate this methodology, selected historic storm surge events have been simulated and resultant storm surges compared with gauge records. Tropical cyclone induced exceedance probabilities have been combined with estimates derived from a 61-year water level hindcast described in a companion paper to give a single estimate of present day extreme water level probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia. Results of this work are freely available to coastal engineers, managers and researchers via a web-based tool (www.sealevelrise.info). The described methodology could be applied to other regions of the world, like the US east coast, that are subject to both extra-tropical and tropical cyclones. 相似文献
82.
In this paper, a new approach to planetary mission design is described which automates the search for gravity-assist trajectories. This method finds all conic solutions given a range of launch dates, a range of launch energies and a set of target planets. The new design tool is applied to the problems of finding multiple encounter trajectories to the outer planets and Venus gravity-assist trajectories to Mars. The last four-planet grand tour opportunity (until the year 2153) is identified. It requires an Earth launch in 1996 and encounters Jupiter, Uranus, Neptune, and Pluto. Venus gravity-assist trajectories to Mars for the 30 year period 1995–2024 are examined. It is shown that in many cases these trajectories require less launch energy to reach Mars than direct ballistic trajectories.Assistant Professor, School of Aeronautics and AstronauticsGraduate Student, School of Aeronautics and Astronautics 相似文献
83.
We present profiles of the line-of-sight (l.o.s.) ionospheric wind velocities in the southern auroral/polar region of Saturn. Our velocities are derived from the measurement of Doppler shifting of the H3+ν2Q(1,0−) line at 3.953 microns. The data for this study were obtained using the facility high-resolution spectrometer CSHELL on the NASA Infrared Telescope Facility (IRTF) on Mauna Kea, Hawaii, during the night of February 6, 2003 (UT). The l.o.s. velocity profiles finally derived are consistent with an extended region of the upper atmosphere sub-corotating with the planet: the ion velocities in the inertial reference are only 1/3 of those expected for full planetary corotation. We discuss the results in the light of recent proposals for the kronian magnetosphere, and suggest that, in this region, Saturn's ion winds may be under solar wind control. 相似文献
84.
Douglas S. Hall Gregory W. Henry Dietmar Böhme Peter A. Brooks Sandy Chang Ales Dolzan George L. Fortier Robert E. Fried Russell M. Genet Bruce S. Grim James Hannon Darrel B. Hoff Kevin Krisciunas Howard J. Landis Howard P. Louth Larry P. Lovell Paul Nielsen Bobby E. Powell Harry D. Powell Don Pray Thomas R. Renner Charles W. Rogers Stephen Shervais Douglas M. Slauson Samuel Slote Harold J. Stelzer Arthur J. Stokes Jack C. Troeger Louis C. Turner Norman F. Wasson Kenneth W. Zeigler 《Journal of Astrophysics and Astronomy》1991,12(4):281-287
We present photoelectric photometry of λ And never before published, obtained between February 1982 and December 1990 at 29
different observatories. Then we combine it with all other photometry available to us (previously published, contained in
the I.A.U. Commission 27 Archives, and obtained with the Vanderbilt 16-inch automatic telescope but not yet published), to
yield a 14.8-year data base. Analysis reveals a long-term cycle in mean brightness, with a full range of 0m.15 and a period of 11.4 ± 0.4 years. Because most of our new photometry was concentrated in the 1983-84 observing season,
we analyze that one well-defined light curve with a two-spot model. Spot A keeps a 0m.04 amplitude throughout four rotation cycles whereas the amplitude of spot B diminishes from 0m.09 down almost to 0m.03. The spot rotation periods were 55d.9 ± 0d.6 and 520d.8 ± 1d.0, respectively. 相似文献
85.
Kent Brooks 《Geology Today》2006,22(5):180-186
Most geologists asked to comment on the geology of Denmark would probably think of Cretaceous Chalk and Pleistocene glacial deposits. Today, many will perhaps be familiar with the Cretaceous–Tertiary boundary clay at Stevns Klint, which has played a prominent role in the discussions regarding the mass extinction event at this time (the ever popular 'end of the dinosaurs'). Few would perhaps think of volcanic or tectonic phenomena, although, in fact, outstanding localities for these processes are to be found here, documenting a time when dense volcanic ash clouds drifted over north-west Europe. 相似文献
86.
The 2dF Galaxy Redshift Survey: the bJ -band galaxy luminosity function and survey selection function
Peder Norberg Shaun Cole Carlton M. Baugh Carlos S. Frenk Ivan Baldry Joss Bland-Hawthorn Terry Bridges Russell Cannon Matthew Colless Chris Collins Warrick Couch Nicholas J. G. Cross Gavin Dalton Roberto De Propris Simon P. Driver George Efstathiou Richard S. Ellis Karl Glazebrook Carole Jackson Ofer Lahav Ian Lewis Stuart Lumsden Steve Maddox Darren Madgwick John A. Peacock Bruce A. Peterson Will Sutherland Keith Taylor 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2002,336(3):907-931
87.
Peder Norberg Carlton M. Baugh Ed Hawkins Steve Maddox John A. Peacock Shaun Cole Carlos S. Frenk Joss Bland-Hawthorn Terry Bridges Russell Cannon Matthew Colless Chris Collins Warrick Couch Gavin Dalton Roberto De Propris Simon P. Driver George Efstathiou Richard S. Ellis Karl Glazebrook Carole Jackson Ofer Lahav Ian Lewis Stuart Lumsden Darren Madgwick Bruce A. Peterson Will Sutherland Keith Taylor 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2001,328(1):64-70
We investigate the dependence of the strength of galaxy clustering on intrinsic luminosity using the Anglo-Australian two degree field galaxy redshift survey (2dFGRS). The 2dFGRS is over an order of magnitude larger than previous redshift surveys used to address this issue. We measure the projected two-point correlation function of galaxies in a series of volume-limited samples. The projected correlation function is free from any distortion of the clustering pattern induced by peculiar motions and is well described by a power law in pair separation over the range . The clustering of galaxies in real space is well-fitted by a correlation length and power-law slope . The clustering amplitude increases slowly with absolute magnitude for galaxies fainter than M *, but rises more strongly at higher luminosities. At low luminosities, our results agree with measurements from the Southern Sky Redshift Survey 2 by Benoist et al. However, we find a weaker dependence of clustering strength on luminosity at the highest luminosities. The correlation function amplitude increases by a factor of 4.0 between and −22.5, and the most luminous galaxies are 3.0 times more strongly clustered than L * galaxies. The power-law slope of the correlation function shows remarkably little variation for samples spanning a factor of 20 in luminosity. Our measurements are in very good agreement with the predictions of the hierarchical galaxy formation models of Benson et al. 相似文献
88.
Ian Lewis Michael Balogh Roberto De Propris Warrick Couch Richard Bower Alison Offer Joss Bland-Hawthorn Ivan K. Baldry Carlton Baugh Terry Bridges Russell Cannon Shaun Cole Matthew Colless Chris Collins Nicholas Cross Gavin Dalton Simon P. Driver George Efstathiou Richard S. Ellis Carlos S. Frenk Karl Glazebrook Edward Hawkins Carole Jackson Ofer Lahav Stuart Lumsden Steve Maddox Darren Madgwick Peder Norberg John A. Peacock Will Percival Bruce A. Peterson Will Sutherland Keith Taylor 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2002,334(3):673-683
89.
90.