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101.
Paul Joe Cliff Crozier Norman Donaldson Dave Etkin Erik Brun Steve Clodman 《大气与海洋》2013,51(2):249-302
Abstract Summer severe weather (SSW) can strike suddenly and unexpectedly with disastrous consequences for human activity. Considerable progress has been made in the past ten years in the operational forecasting of SSW. Traditionally, SSW was defined to consist of tornadoes, strong winds, hail, lightning and heavy rain. Hazardous types of strong winds have recently been expanded to include microbursts, macrobursts and surfacing rear inflow jet damage behind mesoscale convective systems. Doppler radar was used to relate surface damage to the appropriate atmospheric phenomena, first diagnostically and then prognostically. This improvement in classification has fedback to and improved the forecast process. Concurrent progress has been made in the use of synoptic observations. The concept of helical wind profiles and improved knowledge of the role of dry mid‐level air has improved the forecasting of tornadoes and strong gusty winds. Moisture flux convergence, derived from surface measurements, shows great promise in identifying areas of storm initiation. Satellite imagery has been used to identify dynamical atmospheric boundaries. Numerical modelling of the interaction of environmental wind profiles and individual thunderstorms has greatly contributed to the understanding of SSW. Studies of spatial and temporal patterns of lightning, both specific cases and climatology, contribute to the forecasting of severe storms. Polarization radar results have shown progress in separating the signals of hail from those of rain and in the improved measurement of heavy rainfalls. Radar observation of clear air boundaries and their interactions show potential for the forecasting of thunderstorm initiation. Though not traditionally considered part of SSW, hurricanes that evolve into extra‐tropical storms share many of the same hazardous features. The progress in computing, communications and display technologies has also made substantial contributions to operational forecasting and to the dissemination of weather warnings. 相似文献
102.
Austin H. Becker Michele Acciaro Regina Asariotis Edgard Cabrera Laurent Cretegny Philippe Crist Miguel Esteban Andrew Mather Steve Messner Susumu Naruse Adolf K. Y. Ng Stefan Rahmstorf Michael Savonis Dong-Wook Song Vladimir Stenek Adonis F. Velegrakis 《Climatic change》2013,120(4):683-695
With 80 % of world trade carried by sea, seaports provide crucial linkages in global supply-chains and are essential for the ability of all countries to access global markets. Seaports are likely to be affected directly and indirectly by climatic changes, with broader implications for international trade and development. Due to their coastal location, seaports are particularly vulnerable to extreme weather events associated with increasing sea levels and tropical storm activity, as illustrated by hurricane “Sandy”. In view of their strategic role as part of the globalized trading system, adapting ports in different parts of the world to the impacts of climate change is of considerable importance. Reflecting the views of a diverse group of stakeholders with expertise in climate science, engineering, economics, policy, and port management, this essay highlights the climate change challenge for ports and suggests a way forward through the adoption of some initial measures. These include both “soft” and “hard” adaptations that may be spearheaded by individual port entities, but will require collaboration and support from a broad range of public and private sector stakeholders and from society at large. In particular, the essay highlights a need to shift to more holistic planning, investment and operation. 相似文献
103.
Steve Rayner Clare Heyward Tim Kruger Nick Pidgeon Catherine Redgwell Julian Savulescu 《Climatic change》2013,121(3):499-512
Scientific momentum is increasing behind efforts to develop geoengineering options, but it is widely acknowledged that the challenges of geoengineering are as much political and social as they are technical. Legislators are looking for guidance on the governance of geoengineering research and possible deployment. The Oxford Principles are five high-level principles for geoengineering governance. This article explains their intended function and the core societal values which they attempt to capture. Finally, it proposes a framework for their implementation in a flexible governance architecture through the formulation of technology-specific research protocols. 相似文献
104.
J. L. Culhane D. H. Brooks L. van Driel-Gesztelyi P. Démoulin D. Baker M. L. DeRosa C. H. Mandrini L. Zhao T. H. Zurbuchen 《Solar physics》2014,289(10):3799-3816
Seeking to establish whether active-region upflow material contributes to the slow solar wind, we examine in detail the plasma upflows from Active Region (AR) 10978, which crossed the Sun’s disc in the interval 8 to 16 December 2007 during Carrington rotation (CR) 2064. In previous work, using data from the Hinode/EUV Imaging Spectrometer, upflow velocity evolution was extensively studied as the region crossed the disc, while a linear force-free-field magnetic extrapolation was used to confirm aspects of the velocity evolution and to establish the presence of quasi-separatrix layers at the upflow source areas. The plasma properties, temperature, density, and first ionisation potential bias [FIP-bias] were measured with the spectrometer during the disc passage of the active region. Global potential-field source-surface (PFSS) models showed that AR 10978 was completely covered by the closed field of a helmet streamer that is part of the streamer belt. Therefore it is not clear how any of the upflowing AR-associated plasma could reach the source surface at 2.5 R⊙ and contribute to the slow solar wind. However, a detailed examination of solar-wind in-situ data obtained by the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) spacecraft at the L1 point shows that increases in O7+/O6+, C6+/C5+, and Fe/O – a FIP-bias proxy – are present before the heliospheric current-sheet crossing. These increases, along with an accompanying reduction in proton velocity and an increase in density are characteristic of both AR and slow-solar-wind plasma. Finally, we describe a two-step reconnection process by which some of the upflowing plasma from the AR might reach the heliosphere. 相似文献
105.
Ian Shennan Sarah Hamilton Caroline Hillier Amanda Hunter Ruth Woodall Sarah Bradley Glenn Milne Anthony Brooks Sophie Bassett 《第四纪科学杂志》2006,21(6):601-613
Observations of relative sea‐level change and local deglaciation in western Scotland provide critical constraints for modelling glacio‐isostatic rebound in northern Britain over the last 18 000 years. The longest records come from Skye, Arisaig and Knapdale with a shorter, Holocene, record from Kintail. Biostratigraphic (diatom, pollen, dinoflagellate, foraminifera and thecamoebian), lithological and radiocarbon analyses provide age and elevation parameters for each sea‐level index point. All four sites reveal relative sea‐level change that is highly non‐monotonic in time as the local vertical component of glacio‐isostatic rebound and eustasy (or global meltwater influx) dominate at different periods. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
106.
Summary. Particle-motion plots of shear waves have been studied for the section FG of the FENNOLORA seismic experiment. Shear-wave splitting is observed on some records and the polarization of the first arriving shear waves show two peaks at about N35°W and N65°E. These results can be interpreted as being due to crack-induced anisotropy with the crack direction dominated by a (dominant) horizontal stress around N35°W. This is consistent with in situ stress measurements and focal mechanism studies in Scandinavia. the results show that seismic refraction experiments may be useful in providing evidence of crack-induced anisotropy in the stable continental crust. 相似文献
107.
108.
109.
Douglas A. Simons Paola Amico Dietrich Baade Sam Barden Randall Campbell Gert Finger Kirk Gilmore Roland Gredel Paul Hickson Steve Howell Norbert Hubin Andreas Kaufer Ralf Kohley Philip MacQueen Sergej Markelov Mike Merrill Satoshi Miyazaki Hidehiko Nakaya Darragh O'Donoghue Tino Oliva Andrea Richichi Derrick Salmon Ricardo Schmidt Hongjun Su Simon Tulloch Maria Luisa García Vargas R. Mark Wagner Olivier Wiecha Binxun Ye 《Experimental Astronomy》2005,19(1-3):15-44
Results of a survey of instrumentation and detector systems, either currently deployed or planned for use at telescopes larger than 3.5 m, in ground based observatories world-wide, are presented. This survey revealed a number of instrumentation design trends at optical, near, and mid-infrared wavelengths. Some of the most prominent trends include the development of vastly larger optical detector systems (> 109 pixels) than anything built to date, and the frequent use of mosaics of near-infrared detectors – something that was quite rare only a decade ago in astronomy. Some future science applications for detectors are then explored, in an attempt to build a bridge between current detectors and what will be needed to support the research ambitions of astronomers in the future. 相似文献
110.
William S. Burgett Michael M. Vick David S. Davis Matthew Colless Roberto De Propris Ivan Baldry Carlton Baugh Joss Bland-Hawthorn Terry Bridges Russell Cannon Shaun Cole Chris Collins Warrick Couch Nicholas Cross Gavin Dalton Simon Driver George Efstathiou Richard Ellis Carlos S. Frenk Karl Glazebrook Edward Hawkins Carole Jackson Ofer Lahav Ian Lewis Stuart Lumsden Steve Maddox Darren Madgwick Peder Norberg John A. Peacock Will Percival Bruce Peterson Will Sutherland Keith Taylor 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2004,352(2):605-654