Analysis and characterization of the synergistic AIRS and MODIS cloud-cleared radiances

The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and MODerate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on board NASA Earth Observing System (EOS) Aqua spacecraft measure the upwelling infrared radiance used for numerous remote-sensing- and climate-related applications. AIRS provides high spectral resolution infrared radiances, while MODIS provides collocated high spatial resolution radiances at 16 broad infrared bands. An optimal algorithm for cloud-clearing has been developed for AIRS cloudy soundings at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, where the spatially and spectrally collocated AIRS and MODIS data has been used to analyze the characteristic of this algorithm. An analysis and characterization of the global AIRS cloud-cleared radiances using the bias and the standard deviation between the cloud-cleared and the nearby clear measurements are studied. Scene inhomogeneity for both land- and water-surface types has been estimated to account for the assessed error. Both monthly and seasonal changes of global AIRS/MODIS cloud-clearing performance also have been analyzed.     

Efficacy of a multi-metric fish index as an analysis tool for the transitional fish component of the Water Framework Directive

The WFD has introduced an international commitment to assess the ecological status of transitional waters (TWs), within which fish communities are a key biological monitoring component. The Transitional Fish Classification Index (TFCI) outlined in this paper uses 10 ecological measures to analyse fish populations caught from various ecological niches using a variety of gear types within the Thames estuary. These reach and method-specific communities are then compared to a reference population created from a 'healthy' population from TWs of a similar type. The results indicate a progressive downstream increase the quality of fish communities, consistent with previous work; variation between methods can be accounted for by gear selectivity. Overall, the TFCI is an effective communication tool for converting ecological information into an easily understood format for managers, policy makers and the general public.     

Estimating present day extreme water level exceedance probabilities around the coastline of Australia: tropical cyclone-induced storm surges

The incidence of major storm surges in the last decade have dramatically emphasized the immense destructive capabilities of extreme water level events, particularly when driven by severe tropical cyclones. Given this risk, it is vitally important that the exceedance probabilities of extreme water levels are accurately evaluated to inform risk-based flood and erosion management, engineering and for future land-use planning and to ensure the risk of catastrophic structural failures due to under-design or expensive wastes due to over-design are minimised. Australia has a long history of coastal flooding from tropical cyclones. Using a novel integration of two modeling techniques, this paper provides the first estimates of present day extreme water level exceedance probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia, and the first estimates that combine the influence of astronomical tides, storm surges generated by both extra-tropical and tropical cyclones, and seasonal and inter-annual variations in mean sea level. Initially, an analysis of tide gauge records has been used to assess the characteristics of tropical cyclone-induced surges around Australia. However, given the dearth (temporal and spatial) of information around much of the coastline, and therefore the inability of these gauge records to adequately describe the regional climatology, an observationally based stochastic tropical cyclone model has been developed to synthetically extend the tropical cyclone record to 10,000 years. Wind and pressure fields derived for these synthetically generated events have then been used to drive a hydrodynamic model of the Australian continental shelf region with annual maximum water levels extracted to estimate exceedance probabilities around the coastline. To validate this methodology, selected historic storm surge events have been simulated and resultant storm surges compared with gauge records. Tropical cyclone induced exceedance probabilities have been combined with estimates derived from a 61-year water level hindcast described in a companion paper to give a single estimate of present day extreme water level probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia. Results of this work are freely available to coastal engineers, managers and researchers via a web-based tool (www.sealevelrise.info). The described methodology could be applied to other regions of the world, like the US east coast, that are subject to both extra-tropical and tropical cyclones.     

Use of high spectral resolution remote sensing to determine leaf palatability of eucalypt trees for folivorous marsupials

In this study we assess the feasibility of remotely measuring canopy biochemistry, and thus the potential for conducting large-scale mapping of habitat quality. A number of studies have found nutrient composition of eucalypt foliage to be a major determinant of the distribution of folivorous marsupials. More recently it has been demonstrated that a specific group of secondary plant chemicals, the diformylphloroglucinols (DFPs), are the most important feeding deterrents, and are thus vital determinants of habitat quality. We report on the use of laboratory spectroscopy to attempt to identify one such DFP, sideroxylonal-A, in the foliage of Eucalyptus melliodora, one of the few eucalypt species browsed by folivorous marsupials. Reflectance spectra were obtained for freeze-dried, ground leaves using near infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) and for both oven-dried and fresh whole leaves using a laboratory-based (FieldSpec) spectroradiometer. Modified partial least squares (MPLS) regression was used to develop calibration equations for sideroxylonal-A concentration based on the reflectance spectra transformed as both the first and second difference of absorbance (Log 1/R). The predictive ability of the calibration equations was assessed using the standard error of calibration statistic (SECV). Coefficients of determination (r²) were highest for the ground leaf spectra (0.98), followed by the fresh leaf and dry leaf spectra (0.94 and 0.87, respectively). When applied to independent validation sub-sets, sideroxylonal-A was most accurately predicted from the ground leaf spectra (r² = 0.94), followed by the dry leaf and fresh leaf spectra (0.72 and 0.53, respectively). Two spectral regions, centred on 674 nm and 1394 nm, were found to be highly correlated with sideroxylonal-A concentration for each of the three spectral data sets studied. Results from this study suggest that calibration equations derived from modified partial least squares regression may be used to predict sideroxylonal-A concentration, and hence leaf palatability, of Eucalyptus melliodora trees, thereby indicating that the remote estimation of habitat quality of eucalypt forests for marsupial folivores is feasible.     

Recent progress in the operational forecasting of summer severe weather

Abstract

Summer severe weather (SSW) can strike suddenly and unexpectedly with disastrous consequences for human activity. Considerable progress has been made in the past ten years in the operational forecasting of SSW. Traditionally, SSW was defined to consist of tornadoes, strong winds, hail, lightning and heavy rain. Hazardous types of strong winds have recently been expanded to include microbursts, macrobursts and surfacing rear inflow jet damage behind mesoscale convective systems. Doppler radar was used to relate surface damage to the appropriate atmospheric phenomena, first diagnostically and then prognostically. This improvement in classification has fedback to and improved the forecast process. Concurrent progress has been made in the use of synoptic observations. The concept of helical wind profiles and improved knowledge of the role of dry mid‐level air has improved the forecasting of tornadoes and strong gusty winds. Moisture flux convergence, derived from surface measurements, shows great promise in identifying areas of storm initiation. Satellite imagery has been used to identify dynamical atmospheric boundaries. Numerical modelling of the interaction of environmental wind profiles and individual thunderstorms has greatly contributed to the understanding of SSW. Studies of spatial and temporal patterns of lightning, both specific cases and climatology, contribute to the forecasting of severe storms. Polarization radar results have shown progress in separating the signals of hail from those of rain and in the improved measurement of heavy rainfalls. Radar observation of clear air boundaries and their interactions show potential for the forecasting of thunderstorm initiation. Though not traditionally considered part of SSW, hurricanes that evolve into extra‐tropical storms share many of the same hazardous features. The progress in computing, communications and display technologies has also made substantial contributions to operational forecasting and to the dissemination of weather warnings.     

The Oxford Principles

Scientific momentum is increasing behind efforts to develop geoengineering options, but it is widely acknowledged that the challenges of geoengineering are as much political and social as they are technical. Legislators are looking for guidance on the governance of geoengineering research and possible deployment. The Oxford Principles are five high-level principles for geoengineering governance. This article explains their intended function and the core societal values which they attempt to capture. Finally, it proposes a framework for their implementation in a flexible governance architecture through the formulation of technology-specific research protocols.     

Is there the will to manage fisheries at a local level in the European Union? A case study from Shetland

The failure of the command and control approach to fisheries management has encouraged governments to look for new ways of balancing the requirement to conserve fish stocks and yet maintain a flow of benefits that will meet economic and social targets. In the quest to establish a system for sustaining production in the Common Pond, the European Union (EU) has begun to investigate alternatives to the current management system. This research paper examines the problems associated with the current management regime operating in the EU in the light of alternatives for managing the fisheries. The research seeks to establish whether, given the serious problems confronting the EU's fishing industries, fishermen would be prepared to accept change and offer their ideas and support to develop an alternative management system. The research draws on the opinions of fishermen from Shetland and discusses the findings gained from interviewing key informants in conjunction with the results of an opinion survey of skippers and boat owners.     

Rock physics analysis for time-lapse seismic at Schiehallion Field, North Sea

Rock physics analysis plays a vital role in time‐lapse seismic interpretation because it provides the link between changes in rock and fluid properties and the resulting seismic data response. In this case study of the Schiehallion Field, we discuss a number of issues that commonly arise in rock physics analyses for time‐lapse studies. We show that:

• 1 Logarithmic fits of dry bulk (K_dry) and shear (G_dry) moduli vs. effective pressure (P_eff) are superior to polynomial fits.
• 2 2D surface fits of K_dry and G_dry over porosity (φ) and effective pressure using all the core data simultaneously are more useful and accurate than separate 1D fits over φ and P_eff for each individual core.
• 3 One average set (facies) of K_dry(φ, P_eff) and G_dry(φ, P_eff) can be chosen to represent adequately the entire Schiehallion reservoir.
• 4 Saturated velocities and densities modelled by fluid substitution of K_dry(φ, P_eff), G_dry(φ, P_eff) and the dry bulk density ρ_dry(φ) compare favourably with well‐log velocities and densities.
• 5 P‐ and S‐wave impedance values resulting from fluid substitution of K_dry(φ, P_eff), G_dry(φ, P_eff) and ρ_dry(φ) show that the largest impedance changes occur for high porosities and low effective pressures.
• 6 Uncertainties in K_dry(φ, P_eff) and G_dry(φ, P_eff) derived for individual cores can be used to generate error surfaces for these moduli that represent bounds for quantifying uncertainties in seismic modelling or pressure–saturation inversion.