巴颜喀拉块体地壳结构多样性探测

青藏高原内部地壳岩性的改造、岩性随深度变化及形变构造是探索研究地壳增厚、物质运动问题的关键.巴颜喀拉块体位于青藏高原中北部,地域广袤,通过对块体内中、东部不同区域的深地震广角反射/折射震相的综合分析,利用反射率理论地震图方法对不同性质震相走时及振幅特征进行细致的模拟计算,进一步研究巴颜喀拉块体内部不同区域地壳精细结构.结果显示:巴颜喀拉块体地壳厚度50~60 km、整体向西逐渐增厚,结晶地壳平均速度6.07~6.18 km·s~(-1)、岩层速度大幅降低,壳内多强反射界面结构、但不同区域差异明显;东部若尔盖盆地地壳介质速度整体低速、壳幔边界较为清晰;中部玉树一玛多段下部地壳发现约6.8 km·s~(-1)的"高速度"介质结构,壳幔边界不清、被改造为2~4 km厚的高速度梯度层,显示了巴颜喀拉块体内部地壳增厚、介质岩性结构被改造的差异性.地壳内部多组强反射、低视速度走时震相揭示了介质岩性的低速破碎、弱化蠕变以及可能的壳内解耦构造.局部地区下地壳的高视速度震相特征显示了青藏高原地壳改造增厚大背景下可能存在稳定的"原始地壳"结构残留或是与上地幔物质的浸入交流.巴颜喀拉块体内不同区域地壳增厚、岩性结构、结晶基底及壳幔边界性质被改造的多样性为深入认识青藏高原地壳形变及动力学过程带来新的启迪.     

一种数字三分量地震微测井仪器设计

针对当前地震微测井仪器在施工和数据采集方面的难题,从提高数据采集质量及仪器功能性方面提出了几种改进方法.主要利用MEMS加速度传感器结合多路并行处理采集方法设计了数字检波器,并集成姿态检测技术直接实现水平分量数据的校正功能,保证系统采集的质量;提出了Ethernet-RS485分布式总线自动控制技术,实现各级联探管的随机组合,同时采用电动方式控制探管操作,提高系统的集成化程度.文中详细分析了利用姿态检测技术实现水平分量数据校正的方法,解决了级联探管随机组合控制和震源激发方位的判定问题.仪器单节探管支持三分量并行采集,有效分辨率达18位,参数可远程配置,同时具备快速显示探管姿态的功能,且支持远程控制,非常适于复杂环境下的工程勘探,整个系统实现全数字化操作且仅需四芯电缆互连,从而缩小了设备的体积和重量,降低施工布线的复杂性.     

Nonlinear FE model updating and reconstruction of the response of an instrumented seismic isolated bridge to the 2010 Maule Chile earthquake

Nonlinear finite element (FE) modeling has been widely used to investigate the effects of seismic isolation on the response of bridges to earthquakes. However, most FE models of seismic isolated bridges (SIB) have used seismic isolator models calibrated from component test data, while the prediction accuracy of nonlinear FE models of SIB is rarely addressed by using data recorded from instrumented bridges. In this paper, the accuracy of a state‐of‐the‐art FE model is studied through nonlinear FE model updating (FEMU) of an existing instrumented SIB, the Marga‐Marga Bridge located in Viña del Mar, Chile. The seismic isolator models are updated in 2 phases: component‐wise and system‐wise FEMU. The isolator model parameters obtained from 23 isolator component tests show large scatter, and poor goodness of fit of the FE‐predicted bridge response to the 2010 Mw 8.8 Maule, Chile Earthquake is obtained when most of those parameter sets are used for the isolator elements of the bridge model. In contrast, good agreement is obtained between the FE‐predicted and measured bridge response when the isolator model parameters are calibrated using the bridge response data recorded during the mega‐earthquake. Nonlinear FEMU is conducted by solving single‐ and multiobjective optimization problems using high‐throughput cloud computing. The updated FE model is then used to reconstruct response quantities not recorded during the earthquake, gaining more insight into the effects of seismic isolation on the response of the bridge during the strong earthquake.     

Numerical Analysis of Groundwater Ridging Processes Considering Water‐Air Flow in a Hillslope

In this study, a water‐air two‐phase flow model was employed to investigate the formation, extension, and dissipation of groundwater ridging induced by recharge events in a hypothetical hillslope‐riparian zone, considering interactions between the liquid and gas phases in soil voids. The simulation results show that, after a rain begins, the groundwater table near the stream is elevated instantaneously and significantly, thereby generating a pressure gradient driving water toward both the stream (the discharge of groundwater to the stream) and upslope (the extension of groundwater ridging into upslope). Meanwhile, the airflow upslope triggered by the advancing wetting front moves downward gradually. Therefore, the extension of groundwater ridging into upslope and the downward airflow interact within a certain region. After the rain stops, groundwater ridging near the stream declines quickly while the airflow in the lower part of upslope is still moving into the hillslope. Thus, the airflow upslope mitigates the dissipation of groundwater ridging. Additionally, the development of groundwater ridging under different conditions, including rain intensity, intrinsic permeability, capillary fringe height, and initial groundwater table, was analyzed. Changes in intrinsic permeability affect the magnitude of groundwater ridging near the stream, as well as the downward speed of airflow, thereby generating highly complex responses. The capillary fringe is not a controlling factor but an influence factor on the formation of groundwater ridging, which is mainly related to the antecedent moisture. It was demonstrated that groundwater ridging also occurs where an unsaturated zone occurs above the capillary fringe with a subsurface lateral flow.     

Analysis of the Characteristics of the D.P.R. Korean Seismic Event on September 23, 2017

A M3. 4 seismic event occurred in the Punggye-ri nuclear test site,D. P. R Korea at 16∶29 p.m. on September 23,2017. We analyzed the waveforms of this event recorded by the China Earthquake Networks Center. In conclusion,this event is complex,including an explosion with a successive earthquake. Although the beginning of the event is an explosion,fault dislocation plays the main role in the event.     

关于地震科学实验场的一些思考——地下云图

由中国地震局和美国国家科学基金委、地质调查局合作建立的地震预报研究实验场为中国早期地震工作的发展起到了良好的推动作用。由于种种客观原因,地震预报实验场的多数预想目标未能达成,发展受到了阻碍。最近几年,实验场重新受到重视,并更名为"地震科学实验场"。结合目前地震学发展的前沿和防震减灾事业的实际需求,本文提出增加"地下云图"作为实验场的新方向。利用高重复性、环境友好、安全性高的气枪震源,持续激发地震信号,实现对地下介质速度变化的连续监测;结合背景噪声成像获得的高分辨率3维地壳结构,构建4维(三维空间+一维时间)地下结构成像。"地下云图"可以反映地下速度和应力变化,为全国范围的地震监测预测提供新的业务手段,推动地震预测从经验预测到物理预测的转换。     

Development of a predictive model for <Emphasis Type="Italic">Clostridium difficile</Emphasis> infection incidence in hospitals using Gaussian mixture model and Dempster–Shafer theory

Clostridium difficile infection is one of the major patient safety concerns in hospitals worldwide. Clostridium difficile infection can have high economic burden to patients, hospitals, and government. Limited work has been done in the area of predictive modeling. In this article, A new predictive model based on Gaussian mixture model and Dempster–Shafter theory is proposed to predict Clostridium difficile infection incidence in hospitals. First, the Gaussian mixture model and expectation–maximization algorithms are used to generate explicit probability criteria of risk factors based on the given data. Second, Dempster–Shafter theory is used to predict the Clostridium difficile infection incidence based on the generated probability criteria that have different beliefs attributing to their different credits. The main procedure includes (1) generate the probability criteria model using Gaussian mixture model and expectation–maximization algorithm; (2) determine the credit of the probability criteria; (3) generate the basic probability assignment; (4) discount the evidences; (5) aggregate the evidences using Dempster combining rule; (6) predict Clostridium difficile infection incidence using pignistic probability transformation. Results show that the model has a higher accuracy than an existing model. The proposed model can generate the criteria ratings of risk factors automatically, which would potentially prevent the imprecision caused by the subjective judgement of experts. The proposed model can assist risk managers and hospital administrators in the prediction and control of Clostridium difficile infection incidence with optimizing their resources.     

云平台下地震监测台网软件系统的应用方案研究

针对数字化地震台网JOPENS软件系统的技术特点及功能需求,在对当前各种主流云计算平台进行比较的基础上,基于较为合适的阿里云计算平台,提出了在云环境下部署JOPENS系统的应用方案。测试结果表明JOPENS系统部署在云环境下能够提升测震台网中心运行的稳定性及可扩展性,并节约运行维护成本。该研究对于当前三网融合新形势下云南省地震台网的建设及运行工作具有借鉴意义。     

Rupture model of the 2013 M_W 6.6 Lushan (China) earthquake constrained by a new GPS data set and its effects on potential seismic hazard

Vertical records are critically important when determining the rupture model of an earthquake, especially a thrust earthquake. Due to the relatively low fitness level of near-field vertical displacements, the precision of previous rupture models is relatively low, and the seismic hazard evaluated thereafter should be further updated. In this study, we applied three-component displacement records from GPS stations in and around the source region of the 2013 MW6.6 Lushan earthquake to re-investigate the rupture model.To improve the resolution of the rupture model, records from both continuous and campaign GPS stations were gathered, and secular deformations of the GPS movements were removed from the records of the campaign stations to ensure their reliability. The rupture model was derived by the steepest descent method(SDM), which is based on a layered velocity structure. The peak slip value was about 0.75 m, with a seismic moment release of 9.89 × 10~(18) N·m, which was equivalent to an M_W6.6 event. The inferred fault geometry coincided well with the aftershock distribution of the Lushan earthquake. Unlike previous rupture models, a secondary slip asperity existed at a shallow depth and even touched the ground surface. Based on the distribution of the co-seismic ruptures of the Lushan and Wenchuan earthquakes, post-seismic relaxation of the Wenchuan earthquake, and tectonic loading process, we proposed that the seismic hazard is quite high and still needs special attention in the seismic gap between the two earthquakes.     

Advance of research on modern soil phytolith

Phytolith study is a new branch of micropaleontology with an increasingly important role in geology, archaeology, and plant taxonomy. Phytoliths have several advantages considering their characteristics of small particle size, high production, wide distribution, anti-decomposition, in situ deposition, distinctive morphologies, and element sequestrating capacity. Phytolith assemblages in modern soil have been found to be closely related to modern vegetation types and climate conditions, which forms the basis for the quantitative study of paleoecology, paleoclimate, and bio-geochemical cycles. At present, phytolith studies generally focus on the following four aspects: (1) Morphology: about 260 unduplicated types of phytoliths have been identified in modern soil, of which 110 types are from grasses, 50 types from ferns, woody plants and other angiosperms, whereas the origin plants of the remaining 100 types are still under investigation. (2) Soil phytolith assemblages and vegetation: phytolith assemblages from the topsoil have been used to distinguish surface vegetation types including different forests and grasslands over a typical region. This model has been applied to restore past vegetation conditions and monitor the dynamic evolution of specific vegetation types at different temporal and spatial scales. (3) Soil phytolith assemblages and climate: quantitative and semi-quantitative relationships between phytolith assemblages and a series of climate parameters, such as annual mean temperature, annual mean precipitation and altitude, have been established through mathematical analysis. In this manner, quantitative reconstruction of paleoclimatic parameters has been achieved through the phytolith-climate transfer function model. (4) Soil phytolith and its sequestered elements: in this topic, the content of soil PhytOC (Phytolith-occluded Organic Carbon) and the importance of PhytOC in the bio-geochemical cycle have been the focus. The study of modern soil phytoliths has provided new approaches and many successful cases for solving specific problems in various fields, such as Earth science and archaeology. This study analyzed existing issues in addition to the abovementioned significant progresses, and provides directions for future research on modern soil phytoliths.