Introduction to the special issue of the Consortium of Organizations for Strong Motion Observation Systems (COSMOS) international guidelines for applying noninvasive geophysical techniques to characterize seismic site conditions

Journal of Seismology -     

A review of observed and projected changes in climate for the islands in the Caribbean

Observed and projected changes in climate have serious socio-economic implications for the Caribbean islands. This article attempts to present basic climate change information—based on previous studies, available observations and climate model simulations—at spatial scales relevant for islands in the Caribbean. We use the General Circulation Model (GCM) data included in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) and the UK Hadley Centre regional climate model (RCM) data to provide both present-day and scenario-based future information on precipitation and temperature for individual island states. Gridded station observations and satellite data are used to study 20th century climate and to assess the performance of climate models. With main focus on precipitation, we also discuss factors such as sea surface temperature, sea level pressure and winds that affect seasonal variations in precipitation. The CMIP3 ensemble mean and the RCM successfully capture the large-scale atmospheric circulation features in the region, but show difficulty in capturing the characteristic bimodal seasonal cycle of precipitation. Future drying during the wet season in this region under climate change scenarios has been noted in previous studies, but the magnitude of change is highly uncertain in both GCM and RCM simulations. The projected decrease is more prominent in the early wet season erasing the mid-summer drought feature in the western Caribbean. The RCM simulations show improvements over the GCM mainly due to better representation of landmass, but its performance is critically dependent on the driving GCM. This study highlights the need for high-resolution observations and ensemble of climate model simulations to fully understand climate change and its impacts on small islands in the Caribbean.     

'Vapours like fire light' are Korean aurorae

F Richard Stephenson and David M Willis describe a rich source of information on aurorae from 17th-century Korea.     

Coring artifacts and contaminant inventories in lake sediment

Sediments of Lake 382, Experimental Lakes Area, Canada, were sampled at six sites using a 5-cm Wildco KB core sampler (KB), a similar device incorporating a ball check valve (BC), and a 0.2 m by 1.2 m flat-faced aluminum freeze core sampler (FC). Cores were sectioned at 1-cm intervals to a depth of 15 cm. Contaminant (²¹⁰Pb and ¹³⁷Cs) concentrations (Bq g^-1) were measured by gamma spectroscopy, and inventories (Bq cm^-2) were calculated following standard methods. Sediments collected using FC, BC and KB had similar contaminant concentrations, however, cores collected by FC and BC had lower estimated inventories than KB cores. Differences between estimates appear to be caused by differences in the water content (WC) of core material. Laboratory studies confirm that FC sediments have higher WC than tube-cored sediment. We hypothesize that ice crystal formation increases the WC of freeze cores, resulting in lower contaminant inventories. Loss of surficial sediment caused by a bow wave may have a similar effect on BC samples. We conclude that KB core gear is appropriate for sampling sediments to measure contaminant concentrations and inventories in recently deposited sediments.     

Relationships between physiological stress and trace toxic substances in the bay mussel, Mytilus edulis, from San Francisco bay,California

Resident populations of Mytilus edulis from Tomales and San Francisco Bay, California, were measured for scope of growth, a physiological integration of the energy consumed by individual animals (feeding rate and assimilation efficiency) less the energy lost in metabolic processes (oxygen consumption and ammonia excretion). Scope for growth of mussels was significantly correlated (p≤ 0·05) with feeding rates. There was a significant decline in the scope for growth between the Golden Gate, at the bay's entrance and RedwoodCity in south San Francisco Bay. The scope for growth in resident M. edulis was significantly negatively correlated (p≤ 0·05) with increased environmental concentrations (from transplanted M. californianus body burden data) of the following trace elements and higher molecular weight chlorinated organic compounds: Cr, Cu, Hg (p ≤ 0·01) and Ag, Al, Zn, total chlordanes, and dieldrin. Scope for growth was significantly correlated (p ≤0·05) with body condition index (dry body weight1shell length).     

Recent increase in atmospheric deposition of mercury to California aquatic systems inferred from a 300-year geochronological assessment of lake sediments

Age-dated sediment cores from 4 remote lakes across California were analyzed for total Hg (Hg_T) concentration as a function of pre- and post-industrialization. Particle size, magnetic susceptibility and organic C and N, were measured to determine if the Hg concentration in sediment cores could be related to atmospheric deposition and/or watershed processes. Results indicate that (a) for each lake modern (1970–2004) Hg_T lake sediment concentrations have increased by an average factor of 5 times more than historic (pre-1850) Hg_T concentrations; (b) the ratio of modern to pre-industrial lake sediment Hg_T for these lakes are higher than estimated for other locations where atmospheric deposition is presumed to be the main source of Hg; (c) 2 of the 4 studied lakes demonstrated significant relationships between Hg_T concentrations and percentage organic material (r² = 0.68 and p < 0.01; r² = 0.67 and p < 0.01) whereas the other two indicated no significant relationship (r² = 0.05 and p = 0.51; r² = 0.12 and p = 0.36).     

3D crustal structure and long-period ground motions from a M9.0 megathrust earthquake in the Pacific Northwest region

We have developed a community velocity model for the Pacific Northwest region from northern California to southern Canada and carried out the first 3D simulation of a M_w 9.0 megathrust earthquake rupturing along the Cascadia subduction zone using a parallel supercomputer. A long-period (<0.5 Hz) source model was designed by mapping the inversion results for the December 26, 2004 Sumatra–Andaman earthquake (Han et al., Science 313(5787):658–662, 2006) onto the Cascadia subduction zone. Representative peak ground velocities for the metropolitan centers of the region include 42 cm/s in the Seattle area and 8–20 cm/s in the Tacoma, Olympia, Vancouver, and Portland areas. Combined with an extended duration of the shaking up to 5 min, these long-period ground motions may inflict significant damage on the built environment, in particular on the highrises in downtown Seattle.