Robustness of Recommended Farm Plans in England under Climate Change: A Monte Carlo Simulation

A methodology is described for estimating robustness of recommended farm plans under climate change while maintaining a meaningful representation of the underlying farm system. Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) of crop yield data is used in conjunction with a fully specified farm-level model and output from a field worktime model. Estimates of farm net margin, enterprise mix (choice and area of enterprises), labour, machinery, storage and animal housing under mean crop yields and field worktimes for current (2000s) and 2050s conditions are generated. MCS is used to estimate the effect of crop yield variation on farm profitability and enterprise mix for the same periods by running the farm-level model with no constraints and running it constrained to the mean data plan. Estimates of robustness, measured as the percentage difference and the probability of exceeding the mean farm net-margin, were calculated from the outputs from these runs. For three representative farm types, mean farm net margin increased; however changes in robustness as shown by percentage difference in farm net margin depended on farm type while the probability of exceeding the mean plan net-margin decreased by 2050 indicating an increase in robustness. The most robust farm type had a diversified mix of enterprises and required no additional fixed resources by the 2050s. The least robust farm type was in a marginal location and mean plan recommendations for the 2050s required additional investment in fixed resources, particularly irrigation. It is concluded that the information provided by the methodology would be particularly useful to farmers: where mean data plans are not robust, MCS results could be used with financial planning techniques to minimise the impact of variability, rather than using high cost inputs to reduce variability per se.     

Lifetimes of enhanced chromospheric network features near active regions

Centerline H filtergrams providing nearly full day coverage of the Sun are used to study the lifetimes of enhanced network features near active regions. In the two cases studied the fraction remaining of those features present at an original epoch remains near unity for 50 h, then drops exponentially with a 1/e decay time of 30 h. Histories of representative enhanced network features are discussed.     

Chronology of late wisconsinan glaciation in middle North America

We propose a chronology of late Wisconsinan glacial fluctuations in middle North America, from Alberta to Wisconsin, based on radiocarbon dates derived solely from wood. Previous chronologies of the southwestern margin of the North American Continental Ice Sheet have depended to a considerable degree on radiocarbon dates from fine-grained organic sediment. This material is commonly contaminated with older carbon, resulting in chronologic confusion. By using only dates from wood, much of the confusion disappears. However, because of the scarcity of wood dates, only four of the sixteen identified fluctuations are accurately dated: an advance into Iowa about 14,000 to 13,500 BP, an advance into South Dakota and Iowa about 12,300 BP, an advance into the Lake Michigan basin about 11,700 BP, and an advance into the Lake Superior basin about 9900 BP. In addition, the beginning of late Wisconsinan glaciation, before 20,000 BP, is fairly well documented. None of the fluctuations in the western part of the region are accurately dated.     

Major element geochemistry of silcrete from a portion of inland Australia

Silcrete is exceedingly uniform in composition, revealing no consistent variations across a large portion of the Australian interior. Analyses of host quartzose sediments suggest that a small increase in Si content, associated with a reduction in Al and H₂O, accompanied silcrete formation. Depletion of Fe, Mg, Ca, K and P point to intense leaching in a near-surface environment. Concentration of Ti during silicification is confirmed and attributed to accumulation from within the host sediments. Analyses of porcellanites derived from silicification of kaolinized claystones reflect considerable Si concentration, along with marked depletion of Al and other, more mobile elements. Reducing conditions under a wet climatic regime are postulated during the early phase of silcrete formation. Subsequent climatic change to aridity favoured silcrete development and preservation.     

Overwintering of terrestrial Arctic arthropods: the fauna of Svalbard now and in the future

There are over 500 species of arthropods recorded from Svalbard. These animals overwinter either within the soil or on the ground surface, and have to tolerate an environment where the ground is frozen for over 9 months each year. Three cold-tolerance strategies have been described from Svalbard invertebrates: freeze avoidance, freeze tolerance and desiccation. Once in a cold-tolerant state the animals can be extremely cold tolerant in terms of both minimum exposure temperature and period of exposure. How the overwintering capabilities of these animals will be affected by climate changes during the next 100 years, as predicted by climate models, is not yet known. Four principle factors with an impact on overwintering of the terrestrial arthropod fauna are outlined here: (1) warmer winter temperatures, with an increased frequency of extreme events such as freeze–thaw cycles and surface icing; (2) changes in snow fall and snow lie; (3) pollutant load; and (4) dispersal of invertebrates to Svalbard. Finally, areas where further research is required are highlighted: including the development of controlled multi-season field experiments; effect of freeze–thaw cycles; changes in thickness and distribution of snow lie, with the subsequent effects on duration of the summer period; chill susceptibility of soil arthropods; assessing potential colonizing species and the likelihood of these species becoming established; assessing the effect of gene flow from surrounding populations; interactions between pollution and cold tolerance; anoxia stress; and the genetics of cold tolerance.