The beachwatch pollution monitoring programme: Changing priorities to recognize changed circumstances

Since the commissioning of the three major deepwater outfalls in Sydney, there has been a dramatic improvement in general beach water quality at Sydney's ocean beaches. This has required the NSW Environment Protection Authority's Beachwatch Programme to shift from assessing the impacts of gross sewage pollution due to nearshore outfalls to more diffuse pollution from stormwater and sewer overflows.

The visual indicators of gross sewage pollution originally used by Beachwatch for the daily assessment of bacterial water quality are now of limited value. General linear models (with multiple effects) were constructed to identify the secondary indicators which best describe the levels of bacterial contamination due to stormwater pollution. Data from four representative Sydney beaches were modelled separately due to the site-specific effects of pollution sources and hydrodynamics. Factors which were built into the models and were known on the day of prediction were rain amount, presence of stormwater material, the maximum daily stormwater rating, drain or lagoon flows at the time of sampling, and the drain/lagoon bacterial concentration two days before sampling.

Results indicate that there is a general linear relationship between visual indicators and bacterial density; however, the reliability of the prediction on a daily basis is poor and rainfall alone as a predictor is equivalent to or better than visual assessment alone. The primary source of information for the preparation of Beachwatch daily pollution bulletins now is rainfall reports from a telemetered network of rain gauges along the coast. This is a more cost-effective approach and has allowed the reallocation of resources to address more directly the problem of stormwater pollution at higher risk beaches.     

Precursors to earthquakes: Seismoelectromagnetic signals

Field measurements in the past several years have documented electromagnetic signals which are attributed to precursory stress and strain changes which were followed ultimately by earthquakes. Precursory electric field changes observed in Greece on multiple dipoles have been used to issue earthquake predictions. While the source of these signals is still unknown, a sufficient number of predictions has been issued to allow some, but not all, statistical analyses to show this method is better than randomly sampling the earthquake catalog. Ongoing efforts to identify the sources of both these signals and the magnetic field variations prior to the Loma Prieta earthquake are focusing on electrokinetic coupling of fluid flow and transient electric fields. A mechanism related to local fluid flow appears to be best suited at this time of explaining the variety of purported precursors. However, much more work is needed to improve the observations and refine the models of precursor generation. Efforts to monitor magnetotelluric transfer functions at longer periods (T>10s) have been hampered by variability of the functions. The use of modern noise reduction techniques such as remote referencing should reduce this variability, but may not reduce errors to a level needed for monitoring. Monitoring of high frequency (81 kHz) seismoelectric emissions may be promising, but lack of simultaneous observations on multiple instruments hinders the utility of this technique.     

Temporal trends in abundance of fish in the tidal Delaware River

Water quality in the tidal Delaware River has improved dramatically over the last several decades. Areas near Philadelphia that were once anoxic and formed a pollution block to migratory fish passage now rarely experience dissolved oxygen concentrations less than 3 ppm. To assess whether these improvements in water quality led to increased abundance of juvenile fishes, data from a beach seine survey conducted annually since 1980 were examined. The number of species captured increased throughout the tidal river, but the increase was greatest in the areas downstream of Philadelphia, wheare water quality has improved the most. Abundance of juvenile striped bass and American shad, two important game species in the river whose migratory patterns make them susceptible to water quality problems, both increased more than, 1,000-fold during the last decade. Correlatations between the temporal abundance patterns of these species in the tidal Delaware River and in other East Coast systems were poor, suggesting that increases in their numbers were related more closely to improving conditions within the Delaware than to factors affecting coastal stocks.     

Climate change in Yellowstone National Park: Is the drought-related risk of wildfires increasing?

The increased frequency of wildfires in the United States has become a common prediction associated with the build-up of greenhouse gases. In this investigation, variations in annual wildfire data in Yellowstone National Park are compared to variations in historical climate conditions for the area. Univariate and multivariate analytical techniques reveal that (a) summer temperatures in the Park are increasing, (b) January-June precipitation levels are decreasing, and (c) variations in burn area within the Park are significantly related to the observed variations in climate. Outputs from four different general circulation model simulations for 2 × CO₂ are included in the analyses; model predictions for increasing aridity in the Yellowstone Park area are generally in agreement with observed trends in the historical climate records.     

The study of the undiscovered mineral resources of the Tongass National Forest and adjacent lands,Southeastern Alaska

The quantitative probabilistic assessment of the undiscovered mineral resources of the 17.1-million-acre Tongass National Forest (the largest in the United States) and its adjacent lands is a nonaggregated, mineral-resource-tract-oriented assessment designed for land-planning purposes. As such, it includes the renewed use of gross-in-place values (GIPV's) in dollars of the estimated amounts of metal contained in the undiscovered resources as a measure for land-use planning.Southeastern Alaska is geologically complex and contains a wide variety of known mineral deposits, some of which have produced important amounts of metals during the past 100 years. Regional geological, economic geological, geochemical, geophysical, and mineral exploration history information for the region was integrated to define 124 tracts likely to contain undiscovered mineral resources. Some tracts were judged to contain more than one type of mineral deposit. Each type of deposit may contain one or more metallic elements of economic interest. For tracts where information was sufficient, the minimum number of as-yet-undiscovered deposits of each type was estimated at probability levels of 0.95, 0.90, 0.50, 0.10, and 0.05.The undiscovered mineral resources of the individual tracts were estimated using the U.S. Geological Survey's MARK3 mineral-resource endowment simulator; those estimates were used to calculate GIPV's for the individual tracts. Those GIPV's were aggregated to estimate the value of the undiscovered mineral resources of southeastern Alaska. The aggregated GIPV of the estimates is $40.9 billion.Analysis of this study indicates that (1) there is only a crude positive correlation between the size of individual tracts and their mean GIPV's: and (2) the number of mineral-deposit types in a tract does not dominate the GIPV's of the tracts, but the inferred presence of synorogenic-synvolcanic nickel-copper, porphyry copper skarn-related, iron skarn, and porphyry copper-molybdenum deposits does. The influence of this study on the U.S. Forest Service planning process is yet to be determined.     

Barium- and LREE-rich, olivine-mica-lamprophyres with affinities to lamproites, Mt. Bundey, Northern Territory, Australia

Primitive olivine-mica-K-feldspar lamprophyre dykes, dated at 1831 ± 6 Ma, intrude lower greenschist facies rocks of the Early Proterozoic Pine Creek Inlier, of northern Australia. They are spatially, temporally and probably genetically associated with a post-tectonic composite granite-syenite pluton (Mt. Bundey pluton). The dykes have unusually high contents of large-ion-lithophile (LILE) and LREE elements (e.g. Ba up to 10,000 ppm, Ce up to 550 ppm, K₂O up to 7.5 wt. %) that resemble the concentrations found in the West Kimberley olivine and leucite lamproites. However, mineralogically the Mt. Bundey lamprophyres resemble shoshonitic lamprophyres and lack any minerals diagnostic of lamproites; leucite or leucite-pseudomorphs are absent. Mineral compositions are also unlike those in lamproites: micas contain higher Al₂O₃ than lamproitic mica; amphiboles are secondary actinolites after diopside; and oxides consist of zincian-chromian magnetite and groundmass magnetite. Heavy mineral concentrates contain mantle-derived xenocrysts of magnesiochromite, pyrope, Cr-diopside and rutile indicating a depth of sampling > 70 km. The Mt. Bundey lamprophyres are non-peralkaline to borderline peralkaline (molar (K + Na)/Al = 0.8 − 1.0) and potassic rather than ultrapotassic (molar K/Na < 2.5). They have distinctive major element compositions (≈46−49 wt. % SiO₂, ≈1.5−2 wt. % MgO, ≈7 wt. % CaO), and element ratios (e.g. molar Al/Ti ≈10, K/Na ≈2) that indicate they are best classified amongst transitional lamproites, i.e. potassic rocks such as cocites, jumillites and Navajominettes, that have geochemical characteristics transitional between Groups I and III. (Foley et al., 1987). The Mt. Bundey lamprophyres have LILE enrichment patterns that resemble the W. Kimberley pamproites but have moderate negative Ta---Nb---Ti anomalies and HREE abundances that are closely similar to the jumillites of southeastern Spain and Mediterranean-type lamproites. Single-stage modelling of Rb---Sr data is consistent with enrichment of the source-region of the Mt. Bundey lamprophyres ≈ 120–170 Ma before partial melting; i.e. at 1.95–2.10 Ga. Source enrichment does not appear to be associated with subduction processes, but may instead relate to incipient rifting of the Archaean basement. Negative Ta---Nb---Ti anomalies in the Mt. Bundey dykes may, therefore, relate to stability of residual titanate minerals in an oxidized subcontinental mantle source. This view is supported by high Fe³⁺/ΣFe ratios of mantle-derived magnesiochromite xenocrysts which indicate oxidized mantle conditions (ƒ_o2 ≈ FMQ + 1 long units), and by the presence of xenocrystic Cr-bearing rutile. Although the Mt. Bundey dykes have sampled upper mantle material, the oxidized nature of the magma source-region, and of the magma itself, suggests that conditions may not be favourable for diamond survival at depth nor for diamond transport in transitional lamproite magmas of this kind.     

On the causes of 18O-depletion and 18O/16O homogenization during regional metamorphism; the East Humboldt Range core complex,Nevada

 Previous stable isotope studies at Lizzies Basin revealed that metasedimentary rocks are ¹⁸O-depleted relative to protolith values, particularly in the lower parts of the section (Lower Zone) where the rocks are also isotopically homogeneous on a scale of hundreds of meters (quartz δ¹⁸O=+9.0 to +9.6 per mil). In contrast, metasedimentary rocks at higher levels at Lizzies Basin (Upper Zone) are less ¹⁸O-depleted and more heterogeneous in δ¹⁸O. In order to understand more fully the isotopic evolution of this terrane, a series of detailed, meter-scale traverses across various metamorphic and igneous lithologies were completed at Lizzies Basin, and at the structurally higher Angel Lake locality. Traverses in the Lizzies Basin Lower Zone and in the lower parts of Angel Lake (Angel Lake Lower Sequence) across various silicate lithologies, including abundant granitoids, reveal similar degrees of homogeneity, although the average δ¹⁸O values are higher at Angel Lake. In contrast, traverses which include substantial thicknesses of marble and calc-silicate gneiss and very little granitoid have more heterogeneous quartz δ¹⁸O values (+11.9 to +13.4 per mil), and also have a higher average δ¹⁸O (+12.9 per mil), than observed elsewhere. The scale of ¹⁸O/¹⁶O homogeneity in quartz observed at Lizzies Basin and Angel Lake (meters to hundreds of meters) requires fluid-mediated isotope exchange, which accompanied Tertiary metamorphism. There is a correlation between the degree of ¹⁸O-depletion in metasedimentary rocks, ¹⁸O/¹⁶O homogenization between lithologies, and the proportion of granitoids (leucogranites in particular) within any part of the section, and a corresponding anticorrelation with the proportion of marble. This points to a causal relationship, whereby the leucogranites (as well as the Tertiary hornblende diorite and biotite monzogranite) acted as both a relatively low-¹⁸O reservoir and a source of fluids to enhance exchange, while the marbles hindered isotope depletion and homogenization by acting as relatively high-¹⁸O reservoirs and impermeable layers. Material balance calculations help delineate the plausible mechanisms of exchange between granitoids and metasediments. Single-pass infiltration of magmatic fluids from the granitoids is not capable of reproducing all of the observations. Fluid-mediated exchange by convective recirculation of magmatic fluids on a scale of meters is the mechanism which explains all of the observations. The generalized model for the isotopic evolution of the East Humboldt Range core complex provides an excellent opportunity to establish the main causes and controlling factors of ¹⁸O-depletion and ¹⁸O/¹⁶O homogenization during regional metamorphism. Received: 27 July 1993 / Accepted: 1 July 1994     

Fe, Ni and Co variations in the metals of some antarctic chondrites

Nearly 4,000 Fe, Ni and Co analyses have been carried out on the metal phases of 12 Antarctic chondritic meteorites by means of the electron microprobe. H-group chondrites show relatively simple patterns of variation for these elements but L- and LL-group members show much more scatter in both Ni and Co concentrations. A single member of the CO3 group investigated shows some scatter in the concentrations and also much higher Co concentrations in the high-Ni (awaruite?) phase (1.25–2%) than in the coexisting kamacite (0.2–0.5%). Thus, analysis of the metal phases can provide not only a means of identifying the group to which a meteorite belongs, but also the possibility of distinguishing between individual chondrites from the same group.

The overall concentrations of Co in the metal particles in the different groups are considered to be related inversely to the abundance of metal grains in meteorites of these groups while the scatter is interpreted as reflecting characteristics inherited at the time of accretion. The absence of homogenisation of the concentrations of Fe, Ni and Co in the metal particles, even in so-called equilibrated chondrites, provides further evidence against the widely held notion that these meteorites have been involved in a high-temperature prograde metamorphism.