Daily rainfall projections from general circulation models with a downscaling nonhomogeneous hidden Markov model (NHMM) for south‐eastern Australia

An ensemble of stochastic daily rainfall projections has been generated for 30 stations across south‐eastern Australia using the downscaling nonhomogeneous hidden Markov model, which was driven by atmospheric predictors from four climate models for three IPCC emissions scenarios (A1B, A2, and B1) and for two periods (2046–2065 and 2081–2100). The results indicate that the annual rainfall is projected to decrease for both periods for all scenarios and climate models, with the exception of a few scenarios of no statistically significant changes. However, there is a seasonal difference: two downscaled GCMs consistently project a decline of summer rainfall, and two an increase. In contrast, all four downscaled GCMs show a decrease of winter rainfall. Because winter rainfall accounts for two‐thirds of the annual rainfall and produces the majority of streamflow for this region, this decrease in winter rainfall would cause additional water availability concerns in the southern Murray–Darling basin, given that water shortage is already a critical problem in the region. In addition, the annual maximum daily rainfall is projected to intensify in the future, particularly by the end of the 21st century; the maximum length of consecutive dry days is projected to increase, and correspondingly, the maximum length of consecutive wet days is projected to decrease. These changes in daily sequencing, combined with fewer events of reduced amount, could lead to drier catchment soil profiles and further reduce runoff potential and, hence, also have streamflow and water availability implications. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Falling sphere observations of anisotropic gravity wave motions in the upper stratosphere over Australia

A study of inertial scale gravity wave motions in the region of the atmosphere between 30 and 60 km has been undertaken, using wind and temperature data derived from rocket-borne falling sphere density experiments performed over Woomera, Australia between 1962 nad 1976. The gross features of the wave field compare favorably with those found in similar northern hemispheric studies. Wave propagation is found to be both vertically and horizontally anisotropic. A rotary spectral analysis indicates predominately upgoing wave energy, suggesting that the majority of sources of these waves lie below 30 km. A detailed statistical investigation of the waves, made using the Stokes parameters technique, reveals that phase progression is also highly directional in the horizontal, with a significant zonal component in summer, but with a strong meridional component in winter. Propagation towards the southeast is inferred in summer, with the waves possibly emanating from tropospheric sources in equatorial regions to the north of Australia. The technique also shows that, on average, the waves appear to have mean ellipse eccentricities (=f/) around 0.4–0.45. Indirect estimates of a number of important wave parameters are made. In particular,v andw flux estimates are made over several height intervals. The vertical gradient of density weighted flux implies wave-induced mean flow accelerations of the order 0.1–1 ms^–1day^–1. This suggests that dissipating gravity waves are a significant source of the momentum residuals that are encountered in studies of satellite data from this region.     

Transformation of dilative and contractive landslide debris into debris flows—An example from marin County, California

The severe rainstorm of January 3, 4 and 5, 1982, in the San Francisco Bay area, California, produced numerous landslides, many of which transformed into damaging debris flows. The process of transformation was studied in detail at one site where only part of a landslide mobilized into several episodes of debris flow. The focus of our investigation was to learn whether the landslide debris dilated or contracted during the transformation from slide to flow.

The landslide debris consisted of sandy colluvium that was separable into three soil horizons that occupied the axis of a small topographic swale. Failure involved the entire thickness of colluvium; however, over parts of the landslide, the soil A-horizon failed separately from the remainder of the colluvium.

Undisturbed samples were taken for density measurements from outside the landslide, from the failure zone and overlying material from the part of the landslide that did not mobilize into debris flows, and from the debris-flow deposits. The soil A-horizon was contractive and mobilized to flows in a process analogous to liquefaction of loose, granular soils during earthquakes. The soil B- and C-horizons were dilative and underwent 2 to 5% volumetric expansion during landslide movement that permitted mobilization of debris-flow episodes.

Several criteria can be used in the field to differentiate between contractive and dilative behavior including lag time between landsliding and mobilization of flow, episodic mobilization of flows, and partial or complete transformation of the landslide.     

Some geological implications of average Quaternary glacial conditions

Analyses of Quaternary landscape evolution tend to focus on events associated with culminations of glacial and interglacial ages, but for most of Quaternary time, environments were intermediate in character. Average Quaternary glacial conditions, based on assessment of the marine isotope record, approximated those near the stage 2/stage 1 transition and during substages 5b and 5d; isotope stages 3 and 4 and substages 5a-d lie within one standard deviation of the mean value. Under average glacial conditions, ice sheets lying over northern North America and Europe were much more contracted than their full-glacial counterparts, and the distribution of mountain glaciers reflected a snowline depression of some 500 m. Geomorphic processes operating under average Quaternary conditions contributed importantly to landscape evolution. Examples of landscapes that may represent such average conditions include cirques and fluvial deposits of the Pacific Northwest, the fjords and strandflat of western Norway, and atolls of the tropical oceans. By examining the geologic record from the perspective of average conditions, rather than those of climatic extremes, added insight can be gained regarding the evolution of Quaternary landscapes.     

Observations of a lee wave and rotor episode in central California

Acoustic sounders and in-situ meteorological sensors were used to record the boundary-layer flow structure along the eastern slopes of the Altamont Hills in central California during a wind energy field program. Oscillating speeds in this area suggest the development of quasi-stationary lee waves and rotors under certain atmospheric conditions. Data averaging of 15 minutes or less is needed to study these phenomena.     

Climate-Volcanism Feedback and the Toba Eruption of 74,000 Years Ago

A general feedback between volcanism and climate at times of transition in the Quaternary climate record is suggested, exemplified by events accompanying the Toba eruption (74,000 yr ago), the largest known late Quaternary explosive volcanic eruption. The Toba paroxysm occurred during the δ¹⁸O stage 5a-4 transition, a period of rapid ice growth and falling global sea level, which may have been a factor in creating stresses that triggered the volcanic event. Toba is estimated to have produced between 10¹⁵ and 10¹⁶ g of fine ash and sulfur gases lofted in co-ignimbrite ash clouds to heights of at least 32 ± 5 km, which may have led to dense stratospheric dust and sulfuric acid aerosol clouds. These conditions could have created a brief, dramatic cooling or "volcanic winter," followed by estimated annual Northern Hemisphere surface-temperature decreases of 3° to 5°C caused by the longer-lived aerosols. Summer temperature decreases of 10°C at high northern latitudes, adjacent to regions already covered by snow and ice, might have increased snow cover and sea-ice extent, accelerating the global cooling already in progress. Evidence for such climate-volcanic feedback, following Milankovitch periodicities, is found at several climatic transitions.     

Bifurcation of volcanic plumes in a crosswind

Bent-over buoyant jets distorted by a crosscurrent develop a vortex pair structure and can bifurcate to produce two distinct lobes which diverge from one another downwind. The region downwind of the source between the lobes has relatively low proportions of discharged fluid. Factors invoked by previous workers to cause or enhance bifurcation include buoyancy, release of latent heat at the plume edge by evaporating water droplets, geometry and orientation of the source, and the encounter with a density interface on the rising path of the plume. We suggest that the pressure distribution around the vortex pair of a rising plume may initially trigger bifurcation. We also report new experimental observations confirming that bifurcation becomes stronger for stronger bent-over plumes, identifying that bifurcation can also occur for straight-edged plumes but gradually disappears for stronger plumes which form a gravity current at their final level and spread for a significant distance against the current. Observations from satellites and the ground are reviewed and confirm that volcanic plumes can show bifurcation and a large range of bifurcation angles. Many of the bifurcating plumes spread out at the tropopause level and suggest the tropopause may act on the plumes as a density interface enhancing bifurcation. Even for quite moderate bifurcation angles, the two plume lobes become rapidly separated downwind by distances of tens of kilometers. Such bifurcating plumes drifting apart can only result in bilobate tephra fall deposits. The tephra fall deposit from the 16 km elevation, SE spreading, bifurcating volcanic plume erupted on 15 May 1981 from Mt Pagan was sampled by previous workers and clearly displayed bilobate characteristics. Examples of bilobate tephra fall deposits are reviewed and their origin briefly discussed. Bilobate deposits are common and may result from many causes. Plume bifurcation should be considered one of the possible mechanisms which can account for come examples of bilobate tephra fall deposits.     

Prediction of tension crack location and riverbank erosion hazards along destabilized channels

Riverbank erosion, associated sedimentation and land loss hazards are a land management problem of global significance and many attempts to predict the onset of riverbank instability have been made. Recently, Osman and Thorne (1988) have presented a Culmann-type analysis of the stability of steep, cohesive riverbanks; this has the potential to be a considerable improvement over previous bank stability theories, which do not account for bank geometry changes due to toe scour and lateral erosion. However, in this paper it is shown that the existing Osman-Thorne model does not properly incorporate the influence of tension cracking on bank stability since the location of the tension crack on the floodplain is indirectly determined via calculation or arbitrary specification of the tension crack depth. Furthermore, accurate determination of tension crack location is essential to the calculation of the geometry of riverbank failure blocks and hence prediction of land loss and bank sediment yield associated with riverbank instability and channel widening. In this paper, a rational, physically based method to predict the location of tension cracks on the floodplain behind the eroding bank face is presented and tested. A case study is used to illustrate the computational procedure required to apply the model. Improved estimates of failure block geometry using the new method may potentially be applied to improve predictions of bank retreat and floodplain land loss along river channels destabilized as a result of environmental change.