Changes in Extreme Rainfall Events in South Africa

Extreme rainfall events can have severe impacts on society, so possible long-term changes in the intensity of extreme events are of concern. Testing for long-term changes in the intensity of extreme events is complicated by data inhomogeneities resulting from site and instrumentation changes. Using rainfall data from stations in South Africa that have not involved site relocations, but which have not been tested for inhomogeneities resulting from changes in instrumentation, a method of testing for changes in the intensity of extreme events is adopted. Significant increases in the intensity of extreme rainfall events between 1931–1960 and 1961–1990 are identified over about 70% of the country. The intensity of the 10-year high rainfall events has increased by over 10% over large areas of the country, except in parts of the north-east, north-west and in the winter rainfall region of the south-west. Percentage increases in the intensity of high rainfall events are largest for the most extreme events. While some inhomogeneities remain in the data used, the observed changes in the intensity of extreme rainfall events over South Africa are thought to be at least partly real.     

Tropical Deforestation and the Kyoto Protocol

The current annual rates of tropical deforestation from Brazil and Indonesia alone would equal four-fifths of the emissions reductions gained by implementing the Kyoto Protocol in its first commitment period, jeopardizing the goal of Protocol to avoid “dangerous anthropogenic interference” with the climate system. We propose the novel concept of “compensated reduction”, whereby countries that elect to reduce national level deforestation to below a previously determined historical level would receive post facto compensation, and commit to stabilize or further reduce deforestation in the future. Such a program could create large-scale incentives to reduce tropical deforestation, as well as for broader developing country participation in the Kyoto Protocol, and leverage support for the continuity of the Protocol beyond the 2008–2012 first commitment period.     

Historical pollution variability from abandoned mine sites,Greater Blue Mountains World Heritage Area,New South Wales,Australia

Core and surface sediments from the Tonalli River, a tributary of the artificial lake, Lake Burragorang, in the Blue Mountains National Park, New South Wales, Australia, were studied to evaluate the spatio-temporal distribution of pollutants from the Yerranderie silver-lead-zinc mine site, abandoned in the late 1920s. A sediment core was collected in the mouth of the Tonalli River, at its junction with Lake Burragorang, and surface sediment samples were collected in the Tonalli River and its tributaries. The concentrations of Pb, As, Zn, Cu, Cd, Hg and Ag in the sediments were determined by ICP-MS and ICP-AES techniques. Temporal variability of metal concentrations was established through ²¹⁰Pb dating of the core sediments and compared with published historical records, rainfall records and bushfire data. Metal concentrations in core sediments showed an overall increase around the year 1950 as well as increases coincident with heavy rainfall. Spatially, metal concentrations were up to 400 times the guideline limit around mine sites but decreased rapidly with distance downstream of the mines.     

Low-Cost Apparatus for On-Site Monitoring of Methane in Ground Water

An upsurge in oil- and gas-well drilling in northwestern Pennsylvania and western New York has been accompanied by several incidents of contamination of ground water by methane. Determining which well is causing the contamination is extremely difficult if more than one gas or oil well is present in the area.
The fact that the solubility of methane decreases as the pressure on ground water decreases provides a quantitative basis for monitoring changes in the amount of methane in the ground water. Quantitative measurements of the volume of methane given off by ground water pumped from a well as the water enters atmospheric pressure permit detection of temporal changes in the gas content which are too subtle to be detected visually. These gas volume changes may, in some cases, be correlated with variations in the pressure of methane in the annulus of nearby individual gas/oil wells and thus may provide a means of pinpointing the gas/oil well that is causing the methane contamination.
The basic principle of the gas-volume monitoring apparatus (GVMA) described in this paper is that as a measured amount of ground water enters atmospheric pressure the gas which comes out of solution is trapped and measured. The GVMA can be constructed of materials costing less than $100 and requires no special skills to assemble or operate. In a recent study conducted in a western New York village, four homeowners were able to collect quantitative gas-volume data from their household water wells daily in about one-half hour. Unlike laboratory analyses for dissolved methane, there is no cost involved in monitoring with the GVMA beyond the initial instrument cost and operator time. Another advantage is that the data are available immediately.     

Plankton dynamics and carbon flux in an area of upwelling off the coast of Morocco

A carbon flux study was carried out off the coast of Morocco, at 31°N, in a region characterized by the presence of a persistent cyclonic eddy. Two short-term (4 and 3 day) deployments of free-floating sediment traps were combined with water column sampling and rate process measurements as the ship followed the traps. For a period of 36 h between trap deployments, a hydrographic section was run along 31°30'N as part of a larger scale survey being carried out simultaneously on the R.V. A. von Humboldt. The first trap deployment was near the eastern margin of the eddy and the traps moved to the north and west in a frontal jet associated with its northern boundary. After the second deployment, which was at the recovery point of the first, the traps moved to the west and then to the southwest. Throughout the study, chlorophyll concentrations varied between 27 and 125 mg m⁻² (0–100 m), with highest concentrations in the upwelled water nearest the coast and in upwelled water generated within the cyclonic eddy. Particulate organic carbon (POC) and particulate organic nitrogen (PON) concentrations were relatively uniform (13.6±1.8 and 1.63±28 g m⁻² with phytoplankton carbon accounting for 16–85% of total POC. Bacterial carbon was 5% of total POC and mesozooplankton carbon concentrations were equivalent to 9% of total POC. Microzooplankton biomass was not assessed but POC:PON ratios in the water column were often high, suggesting there was sometimes a large detrital component in the POC. Primary production rates varied between 1.0 and 2.5 g C m⁻² day⁻¹. Bacterial consumption accounted for 50% of primary production. Metabolic rates suggested that copepods were ingesting more than 0.4 g C m⁻² day⁻¹. while filtration rates suggested that ingestion of phytoplankton carbon was only 0.2 g C m⁻²day⁻¹, even when phytoplankton constituted 85% of the POC. f-ratios (based on uptake rates for ¹⁵N-nitrate and ammonia) were between 0.1 and 0.4, and excretion by mesozooplankton could account for 40% of the daily ammonium uptake by phytoplankton. HPLC pigment analysis showed that when chlorophyll biomass was high, diatoms were dominant, whereas when it was low, small prymnesiophytes, chlorophytes and diatoms were all important. The composition of the fluoresecent pigments in material in the sediment traps indicated that intact phytoplankton and copepod faecal pellets were the main sources but the relative rates of sedimentation of pigment, POC and PON for the two trapping periods did not reflect differences that were observed in the overlying water column. This was likely to be the result of spatial heterogeneity and strong horizontal currents heterogeneity and strong horizontal currents within the euphotic zone. Thus, material collected at 100 m probably did not originate in the water column immediately overlying the traps and trapping efficiencies might also have been variable.     

Geometric and structural river channel complexity and the prediction of urban inundation

Recent research modelling floodplain inundation processes has concentrated on issues surrounding the level of physical, topographical, and numerical solver complexity needed to represent floodplain flows adequately. However, during flooding episodes the channel typically still conveys the bulk of the flow. Despite this, the effect of channel physical processes and topographic complexity on model results has been largely unexplored. To address this, the impact of channel cross‐section geometry, channel long‐profile variability and the representation of hydraulic structures on floodplain inundation are explored using a coupled dynamic 1D‐2D hydraulic model (ESTRY‐TUFLOW) of the Carlisle floods of January 2005. These simulations are compared with those from a simplified 1D‐2D model, LISFLOOD‐FP. In this case, the simpler model is sufficient to simulate the far‐field peak flood elevations. However, comparison of channel dynamics suggests that the full shallow water approximation used by ESTRY‐TUFLOW gives a more robust performance when models calibrated on maximum floodplain water elevations are used to predict channel water levels. Examination of the response of ESTRY‐TUFLOW to variations in channel geometric complexity shows that downstream variations in the channel long profile are more important than cross‐section variability for obtaining a dataset‐independent calibration. The results show, in general, that as model physical complexity is increased, calibrated parameters become less ‘effective’, and as a consequence, the values of performance measures reduce less rapidly away from the optimum value. This means that often more physically complex models are less likely to yield different optimum parameter values when calibrated on different datasets resulting in a more robust numerical model. Lastly, the inclusion of bridge structures can simulate substantial local backwatering effects, but the variability in observed water and wrack marks is such that it is not possible to discern the effect of the bridges at this site in the post‐event observational dataset. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Magnetic anomalies near Apollinaris Patera and the Medusae Fossae Formation in Lucus Planum, Mars

The nature of strong martian crustal field sources is investigated by mapping and modeling of Mars Global Surveyor magnetometer data near Apollinaris Patera, a previously proposed volcanic source, supplemented by large-scale correlative studies. Regional mapping yields evidence for positive correlations of orbital anomalies with both Apollinaris Patera and Lucus Planum, a nearby probable extrusive pyroclastic flow deposit that is mapped as part of the Medusae Fossae Formation. Iterative forward modeling of the Apollinaris Patera magnetic anomaly assuming a source model consisting of one or more uniformly magnetized near-surface disks indicates that the source is centered approximately on the construct with a scale size several times larger and comparable to that of the Apollinaris Patera free-air gravity anomaly. A significantly lower rms deviation is obtained using a two-disk model that favors a concentration of magnetization near the construct itself. Estimates for the dipole moment per unit area of the Lucus Planum source together with maximum thicknesses of ∼3 km based on topographic and radar sounding data lead to an estimated minimum magnetization intensity of ∼50 A/m within the pyroclastic deposits. Intensities of this magnitude are similar to those obtained experimentally for Fe-rich Mars analog basalts that cooled in an oxidizing (high fO₂) environment in the presence of a strong (?10 μT) surface field. Further evidence for the need for an oxidizing environment is provided by a broad spatial correlation of the locations of phyllosilicate exposures identified to date using Mars Express OMEGA data with areas containing strong crustal magnetic fields and valley networks in the Noachian-aged southern highlands. This indicates that the presence of liquid water, which is a major crustal oxidant, was an important factor in the formation of strong magnetic sources. The evidence discussed here for magnetic sources associated with relatively young volcanic units suggests that a martian dynamo existed during the late Noachian/early Hesperian, after the last major basin-forming impacts and the formation of the northern lowlands.     

Timing of rockfalls in the Mont Blanc massif (Western Alps): evidence from surface exposure dating with cosmogenic <Superscript>10</Superscript>Be

Rockfalls and rock avalanches are a recurrent process in high mountain areas like the Mont Blanc massif. These processes are surveyed due to the hazard they present for infrastructure and alpinists. While rockfalls and rock avalanches have been documented for the last 150 years, we know very little about their frequency since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). In order to improve our understanding, it is imperative to date them on a longer timescale. A pilot campaign using Terrestrial Cosmogenic Nuclide (TCN) dating of five samples was carried out in 2006 at the Aiguille du Midi (3842 m a.s.l.). In 2011, a larger scale study (20 samples) was carried out in five other test sites in the Mont Blanc massif. This paper presents the exposure ages of the 2011 TCN study as well as the updated exposure ages of the 2006 study using newer TCN dating parameters. Most of these exposure ages lie within the Holocene but three ages are Pleistocene (59.87?±?6.10 ka for the oldest). A comparison of these ages with air temperature and glacier cover proxies explored the possible relationship between the most active rockfall periods and the warmest periods of the Holocene: two clusters of exposure ages have been detected, corresponding to the Middle Holocene (8.2–4.2 ka) and the Roman Warm Period (c. 2 ka) climate periods. Some recent rockfalls have also been dated (<?0.56 ka).