Tectonics of the Easter plate

We present a new model for the Easter plate in which rift propagation has resulted in the formation of a rigid plate between the propagating and dying ridges. We use the distribution of earthquakes, eleven new focal mechanisms, and existing bathymetric and magnetic data to describe the tectonics of this area. Both the Easter-Nazca and Easter-Pacific Euler poles are sufficiently close to the Easter plate to cause rapid changes in rates and directions of motion along the boundaries. The east and west boundaries are propagating and dying ridges; the southwest boundary is a slow-spreading ridge and the northern boundary is a complex zone of convergent and transform motion.The Easter plate may reflect the tectonics of rift propagation on a large scale, where rigid plate tectonics requires boundary reorientation. We use simple schematic models to illustrate the general features and processes which occur at plates resulting from large-scale rift propagation.     

Statistical mapping of PM10 concentrations over Western Europe using secondary information from dispersion modeling and MODIS satellite observations

This paper illustrates the use of statistical techniques to standardize ground based measurements of particulate matter (PM10). Concentrations are interpolated over Western Europe using uncertain secondary information from a chemical transport model and of aerosol optical thickness from MODIS satellite observations. A consistent overview of PM10 concentrations over Europe based solely on ground based measurements is complicated by differences between countries. Different monitoring methods are used and calibrations are applied. There also is an inherent limitation to the spatial representativeness of ground based measurements. Validation showed that adding secondary information from either the chemical transport model or the satellite observations improved the PM10 mapping. The URMSE decreased from 5.14 to 4.26 and 4.58, respectively. A combination of both sources of secondary information gave the most accurate and precise predictions, with an URMSE of 3.62. This means that both external sources contain additional information on the spatial distribution of PM10 concentrations and should therefore be preferred.     

Neotectonic faulting and the Late Weichselian shoreline gradients in SW Norway

The Younger Dryas (YD) maximum highstand shoreline in SW Norway has traditionally been considered as being slightly concave, gradually steepening in the direction of uplift. This phenomenon is attributed to geoidal and isostatic effects near the former ice-sheet margin. On the basis of isolation basin data from the region, we have reconstructed this shoreline, and a Bølling-Allerød (B-A) lowstand shoreline, along three profiles in SW Norway. Along all profiles there are shore levels which, within the error limits estimated, cannot be captured by a single straight (or curved) shoreline. The anomalous shore levels occur near major fault zones and are interpreted to reflect differential uplift rates on opposite sides of faults, superimposed on the general glacio-isostatic tilting of the region. The inferred faulting is consistent with observations previously reported as neotectonic ‘claims’ in the region and shed new light on the deformational structures observed in seismic profiles of the fjord sediments. Excluding the anomalous shore levels, a straight shoreline with gradient ca. 1.1 m/km provides the best and most consistent representation of the YD shore levels along the three profiles. The B-A lowstand shoreline is constrained by fewer data points, but is approximately parallel-dipping the highstand shoreline. Our reconstructions imply a less steep YD maximum highstand shoreline compared to previous reconstructions, where gradients up to 1.4 m/km have been inferred. This may imply that the ice load effect on the lithosphere in SW Norway during the YD is less than previously assumed.     

Hydrogeochemical and Geophysical Evaluation of the Recharge Zone of Guarani Aquifer in Municipally of Candelária,Rio Grande do Sul,Brazil

Geotechnical and Geological Engineering - A large part of the Guarani Aquifer is located in the state of Rio Grande do Sul (Brazil) and additionally possesses a recharge area located in its central...     

The marine 14C age of the Vedde Ash Bed along the west coast of Norway

Articulated molluscs, sea urchins and barnacle fragments close to the Vedde Ash Bed in a shallow marine deposit on the west coast of Norway have been ¹⁴C dated. The weighted mean of four dates from a sediment slice 8 cm thick centred on the Vedde Ash Bed is 10920 ± 24 ¹⁴C yr BP. The most accurate ¹⁴C age of the Vedde Ash from terrestrial plant macrofossils is 10310 ± 50 yr BP. The difference is the ¹⁴C reservoir age for coastal water at the west coast of Norway during the mid‐Younger Dryas and equals 610 ± 55 yr. This is 230 yr older than the reservoir age for the Bølling/Allerød and for the present day in this area. The result supports earlier conclusions of a higher reservoir age for the Younger Dryas in the North Atlantic and Nordic Seas, although our reservoir age of 610 ± 55 yr is a few hundred years younger. This suggests that the ¹⁴C reservoir age at Vedde Ash time may increase from coastal water towards the open North Atlantic and Nordic Seas. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Improved parameter estimation for hydrological models using weighted object functions

This paper discusses the sensitivity of calibration of hydrological model parameters to different objective functions. Several functions are defined with weights depending upon the hydrological background. These are compared with an objective function based upon kriging. Calibration is applied to piezometric readings from the Isle of Goeree in the Netherlands. For a study on the permeability of the first aquifer, the kriging predictor yields weights that differ from using prior knowledge, and emphasizes more strongly spatially isolated points than commonly applied objective functions. It reduces the range of differences between measurements and model simulations, but the mean absolute error increases. For a study on the resistance of the top layer and of the aquitard, use of prior information in the objective functions leads to a reduction in standard deviations of the differences between measured and calculated values by 40–80%. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Stereological Estimation of Uncertain and Changing Objects from Remote Sensing Image Mining

This article combines stereology with image mining. Image mining identifies and models objects from a series of remote sensing images and communicates this information to stakeholders. Stereology is the science of deriving properties of objects from lower dimensional features. This article first applies stereology to quantify properties of crisp objects on single images. Next it addresses the development of an object in space and time. Finally, it quantifies uncertainty of fuzzy objects. The article is illustrated with a case study from Cambodia, where flooding regularly occurs along the Mekong River. Nine Landsat images have been mined to assess the size of the flooding in space and time. Areal estimates obtained with stereology from single images show a high precision. Estimates of a space–time volume of the size of flooding in space and time include uncertainty estimates that could be ascribed to atmospheric distortion and limited resolution. Finally stereology is applied to estimate the effects on area estimates of fuzzified boundaries. All information can be transferred to stakeholders, e.g. to quantify the size of a disaster. The article concludes that stereology successfully and concisely quantifies phenomena and their uncertainties in a remote sensing image mining context.     

Spatial dependency of cholera prevalence on potential cholera reservoirs in an urban area,Kumasi, Ghana

Cholera has been a public health burden in Ghana since the early 1970s. Between 1999 and 2005, a total of 25,636 cases and 620 deaths were officially reported to the WHO. In one of the worst affected urban cities, fecal contamination of surface water is extremely high, and the disease is reported to be prevalent among inhabitants living in close proximity to surface water bodies. Surface runoff from dump sites is a major source of fecal and bacterial contamination of rivers and streams in the study area. This study aims to determine (a) the impacts of surface water contamination on cholera infection and (b) detect and map arbitrary shaped clusters of cholera. A Geographic Information System (GIS) based spatial analysis is used to delineate potential reservoirs of the cholera vibrios; possibly contaminated by surface runoff from open space refuse dumps. Statistical modeling using OLS model reveals a significant negative association between (a) cholera prevalence and proximity to all the potential cholera reservoirs (R² = 0.18, p < 0.001) and (b) cholera prevalence and proximity to upstream potential cholera reservoirs (R² = 0.25, p < 0.001). The inclusion of spatial autoregressive coefficients in the OLS model reveals the dependency of the spatial distribution of cholera prevalence on the spatial neighbors of the communities. A flexible scan statistic identifies a most likely cluster with a higher relative risk (RR = 2.04, p < 0.01) compared with the cluster detected by circular scan statistic (RR = 1.60, p < 0.01). We conclude that surface water pollution through runoff from waste dump sites play a significant role in cholera infection.     

大陆内的长余震序列和对地震危险性评估的意义

板块构造学说最强大的特点之一,是通过已知的板块运动可以了解板块边界未来大地震的地点和平均复发间隔。然而板块构造学却不能探知板块之内何时何处发生地震,因为理想的板块内部不发生形变。因此,在板块内部,进行地震危险性评估主要依靠的假设是,短期历史记录给出的小地震的位置反映出连续形变从而引发未来大地震（Shed—locketal,2000）。然而在此我们提出,最近的这些地震有许多可能是数百年前大地震的余震。我们提出一简单模型可预测：余震序列的长度和断层应力加载的速．率成反比。     

大陆内部长余震序列及其对地震风险评估的启示

板块构造学说的最有力的特征之一,是已知的板块运动让我们对板块边界未来大地震的发震位置和平均复发间隔有更清晰的认识。然而,板块构造学说却不能预测板块内的地震何时何地发生,因为理想的板块内部是不会变形的。因此,板块内部的地震风险评估过于依靠如下假设：从有限的历史记录中得到的小地震发震位置能够反映出连续变形的地区,而变形将诱发未来大地震[1]。然而,本文将要说明的是,最近许多这样的小地震很可能是几百年前发生过的大地震的余震。文中将给出一个简单的模型,并由此模型得出：余震序列的长度和断层加载速率呈反比关系。发生在缓慢变形的大陆内部的余震序列,其持续时间与在快速加载的板块边界所观测到的典型的10年尺度余震序列相比要长得多。因为这些预测与观测结果相符,所以将大陆内部地震看作稳态地震活动的一般做法高估了目前地震活跃地区的地震危险性,而低估了其他地区的地震风险。