Lateglacial and Holocene variation in aeolian sediment flux over the northeastern Tibetan Plateau recorded by laminated sediments of a saline meromictic lake

Predominantly laminated lake sediments from a saline closed‐basin lake on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau were investigated using a multi‐proxy approach (¹⁴C‐accelerator mass spectrometry dating, smear‐slide analysis, loss on ignition, grain size, X‐ray diffraction, elemental concentration, ostracod assemblages, stable isotopes of ostracod shells) to trace the regional environmental and climatic history in the Lateglacial and Holocene. Before about 15 cal. ka BP, small saline water bodies probably filled the basin under unstable cold and harsh environmental conditions. Soon after about 14.9 cal. ka BP, a relatively deep saline lake was established, probably as a result of runoff from melting snow, ice and frozen ground in the lake's catchment. Large changes in flux of aeolian material to the lake were recorded during this initial period of formation of Lake Kuhai. Highest lake levels, a low sediment accumulation rate and less saline conditions were maintained between about 12.8 and 7.1 cal. ka BP when the aeolian influx diminished significantly. After about 7.1 cal. ka BP, the aeolian influx remained at a moderate level apart from a strongly increased dust delivery to the lake between about 6.1 and 5.4 cal. ka BP and a minor short‐lived period of slightly enhanced aeolian influx at about 2.7 cal. ka BP. The strongly enhanced dust input to the lake between 6.1 and 5.4 cal. ka BP represented the largest influx of aeolian material to Lake Kuhai during the entire Holocene. However, evidence for climatic deterioration during this period is not seen at most other palaeoclimate sites on the Tibetan Plateau, but instead a significant increase in aridity has been recorded at numerous sites in the northern foreland of the Tibetan Plateau and on the Chinese Loess Plateau. The large dust input to Lake Kuhai between 6.1 and 5.4 cal. ka BP probably did not result from a severe climate deterioration on the Tibetan Plateau itself, but from the pronounced aridity in its northern and eastern foreland. In contrast, the increase in dust influx about 2.7 cal. ka BP seems to correspond to a brief warming spell recorded at other sites on the Tibetan Plateau too. A slight increase in lake level and decrease in salinity after about 0.6 cal. ka BP suggests a slightly higher effective moisture during the final lake stage, accompanied by a somewhat larger dust influx. This apparent contradiction possibly results from enhanced human activities on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau during the last 600 years. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Use of Picard and Newton iteration for solving nonlinear ground water flow equations

This study examines the use of Picard and Newton iteration to solve the nonlinear, saturated ground water flow equation. Here, a simple three-node problem is used to demonstrate the convergence difficulties that can arise when solving the nonlinear, saturated ground water flow equation in both homogeneous and heterogeneous systems with and without nonlinear boundary conditions. For these cases, the characteristic types of convergence patterns are examined. Viewing these convergence patterns as orbits of an attractor in a dynamical system provides further insight. It is shown that the nonlinearity that arises from nonlinear head-dependent boundary conditions can cause more convergence difficulties than the nonlinearity that arises from flow in an unconfined aquifer. Furthermore, the effects of damping on both convergence and convergence rate are investigated. It is shown that no single strategy is effective for all problems and how understanding pitfalls and merits of several methods can be helpful in overcoming convergence difficulties. Results show that Picard iterations can be a simple and effective method for the solution of nonlinear, saturated ground water flow problems.     

The causes of land-use and land-cover change: moving beyond the myths

Common understanding of the causes of land-use and land-cover change is dominated by simplifications which, in turn, underlie many environment-development policies. This article tracks some of the major myths on driving forces of land-cover change and proposes alternative pathways of change that are better supported by case study evidence. Cases reviewed support the conclusion that neither population nor poverty alone constitute the sole and major underlying causes of land-cover change worldwide. Rather, peoples’ responses to economic opportunities, as mediated by institutional factors, drive land-cover changes. Opportunities and constraints for new land uses are created by local as well as national markets and policies. Global forces become the main determinants of land-use change, as they amplify or attenuate local factors.     

Solar Chemical Abundances Determined with a CO5BOLD 3D Model Atmosphere

In the last decade, the photospheric solar metallicity as determined from spectroscopy experienced a remarkable downward revision. Part of this effect can be attributed to an improvement of atomic data and the inclusion of NLTE computations, but also the use of hydrodynamical model atmospheres seemed to play a role. This “decrease” with time of the metallicity of the solar photosphere increased the disagreement with the results from helioseismology. With a CO ⁵ BOLD 3D model of the solar atmosphere, the CIFIST team at the Paris Observatory re-determined the photospheric solar abundances of several elements, among them C, N, and O. The spectroscopic abundances are obtained by fitting the equivalent width and/or the profile of observed spectral lines with synthetic spectra computed from the 3D model atmosphere. We conclude that the effects of granular fluctuations depend on the characteristics of the individual lines, but are found to be relevant only in a few particular cases. 3D effects are not responsible for the systematic lowering of the solar abundances in recent years. The solar metallicity resulting from this analysis is Z=0.0153, Z/X=0.0209.     

Inter-annual water mass variations from GRACE in central Siberia

Our study analyses satellite and land-based observations of the Yakutsk region centred at the Lena watershed, an area characterised mainly by continuous permafrost. Using monthly solutions of the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment satellite mission, we detect a mass increase over central Siberia from 2002 to 2007 which reverses into a mass decrease between 2007 and 2011. No significant mass trend is visible for the whole observation period. To further quantify this behaviour, different mass signal components are studied in detail: (1) inter-annual variation in the atmospheric mass, (2) a possible effect of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA), and (3) hydrological mass variations. In standard processing the atmospheric mass signal is reduced based on the data from numerical weather prediction models. We use surface pressure observations in order to validate this atmospheric reduction. On inter-annual time scale the difference between the atmospheric mass signal from model prediction and from surface pressure observation is $<$ 4 mm in equivalent water height. The effect of GIA on the mass signal over Siberia is calculated using a global ice model and a spherically symmetric, compressible, Maxwell-viscoelastic earth model. The calculation shows that for the investigated area any effect of GIA can be ruled out. Hence, the main part of the signal can be attributed to hydrological mass variations. We briefly discuss potential hydrological effects such as changes in precipitation, river discharge, surface and subsurface water storage.     

青藏高原东北缘冬给错纳湖全新世湖面波动

青藏高原处于东亚季风、印度季风和西风环流交互作用区.末次冰消期以来,太阳辐射对该地区的古气候环境产生了重要影响,湖泊随着季风系统的变化发生了明显的水位升降,对湖岸阶地的形成起到了直接作用.本项研究重建了青藏高原东北缘冬给错纳湖湖岸阶地记录的湖面波动历史,试图了解青藏高原季风系统演变过程.通过湖泊北岸265 cm厚湖岸阶地沉积物粒度、碳酸盐、矿物、元素和介形虫古环境指标,结合OSL年代模式,分析表明在约10. 2 ka B. P.之前水体较浅;约10. 2~9. 0 ka B. P.湖面开始上升,气候凉湿;9. 0~8. 5 ka B. P.为印度季风强盛期,湖面明显上升,降雨量增高、温度上升;8. 5~7. 9 ka B. P.湖面降低与气候变冷有关;7. 9~7. 0 ka B. P.印度季风开始减弱,气温、降雨下降,但有效湿度较大,湖面降低;7. 0~6. 1 ka B. P.湖面上升可能与低蒸发作用有关,印度季风仍然影响该地区;6. 1~5. 2 ka B. P.,印度季风衰退,气候逐渐变冷、降雨量减小、水体变浅;5. 2~4. 6 ka B. P.气候冷干,有效湿度减小,湖面进一步下降;4. 6 ka B. P.至今气候干冷,东亚季风衰退,湖面下降,期间也可能受西风环流影响而有短暂的降雨增加时期.     

Credible commitment in carbon policy

In this article the problem of credible commitment in carbon policy is discussed. Investors favour long-term predictability of the policy, but without any external enforcement mechanisms a commitment made by a government can be withdrawn, leading to scepticism and lack of credibility. This results in increased market risks and investment hold-up. Regulatory uncertainty stems from (i) strategic interactions between government and firms, (ii) potential learning about climate damage and abatement cost and (iii) political volatility. Although commitment to future policy encourages private investment, it also imposes costs in the form of reduced flexibility to accommodate new information or preferences. The article reviews devices that may help policy makers raise the level of commitment while also leaving some room for flexible adjustments. In particular, legislation of a long-term governance framework, delegation to an independent carbon agency and securitization of investors' stakes in emission markets offer palliative approaches.     

Clay smear processes in mechanically layered sequences — Results of water-saturated model experiments with free top surface

The aim of this study is to improve our knowledge of the processes that lead to clay smear during faulting of a layered sand-clay sequence in an analogue sandbox model. We carefully characterized mechanical properties of the materials used by a series of geotechnical tests. Displacement field was quantified using PIV (Particle Image Velocimetry). The model is water-saturated to allow the deformation of wet clay and sand in one experiment comprising a sand package with a horizontal layer of clay above a predefined rigid basement fault. The thickness and rigidity of the clay layer are the parameters varied in this study. The model shows a range of structures that are related to competence contrast between sand and different clay types. Results show ductile shearing of soft clay with a transition to brittle fracturing of stiff clay accompanied by the formation of rotating clay blocks in the fault zone. Localized deformation is observed through time showing (i) the propagation of one active fault migrating laterally through the sediment package, and (ii) the formation of a stable prism between two or more active faults that gets progressively smaller with minor rotation of the hanging wall fault. Continuous clay smear is observed resulting from the lateral injection of clay as well as from a reworked mixture of sand and clay.     

River Seepage Conductance in Large‐Scale Regional Studies

Flow exchange between surface and groundwater is of great importance be it for beneficial allocation and use of water resources or for the proper exercise of water rights. In large‐scale regional studies, most numerical models use coarse grid sizes, which make it difficult to provide an accurate depiction of the phenomenon. In particular, a somewhat arbitrary leakance coefficient in a third type (i.e., Cauchy, General Head) boundary condition is used to calculate the seepage discharge as a function of the difference of head in the river and in the aquifer, whose value is often found by calibration. A different approach is presented to analytically estimate that leakance coefficient. It is shown that a simple equivalence can be deduced from the analytical solution for the empirical coefficient, so that it provides the accuracy of the analytical solution while the model maintains a very coarse grid, treating the water‐table aquifer as a single calculation layer. Relating the empirical leakance coefficient to the exact conductance, derived from physical principles, provides a physical basis for the leakance coefficient. Factors such as normalized wetted perimeter, degree of penetration of the river, presence of a clogging layer, and anisotropy can be included with little computational demand. In addition the river coefficient in models such as MODFLOW, for example, can be easily modified when grid size is changed without need for recalibration.