A statistical analysis of flank eruptions on Etna volcano

A singularly complete record exists for the eruptive activity of Etna volcano. The time series of occurrence of flank eruptions in the period 1600–1980, in which the record is presumably complete, is found to follow a stationary Poisson process. A revision of the available data shows that eruption durations are rather well correlated with the estimates of the volume of lava flows. This implies that the magnitude of an eruption can be defined directly by its duration. Extreme value statistics are then applied to the time series, using duration as a dependent variable. The probability of occurrence of a very long (300 days) eruption is greater than 50% only in time intervals of the order of 50 years. The correlation found between duration and total output also allows estimation of the probability of occurrence of a major event which exceeds a given duration and total flow of lava. The composite probabilities do not differ considerably from the pure ones. Paralleling a well established application to seismic events, extreme value theory can be profitably used in volcanic risk estimates, provided that appropriate account is also taken of all other variables.     

Towards a knowledge base to support global change policy goals

ABSTRACT

In 2015, it was adopted the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development to end poverty, protect the planet and ensure that all people enjoy peace and prosperity. The year after, 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) officially came into force. In 2015, GEO (Group on Earth Observation) declared to support the implementation of SDGs. The GEO Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) required a change of paradigm, moving from a data-centric approach to a more knowledge-driven one. To this end, the GEO System-of-Systems (SoS) framework may refer to the well-known Data-Information-Knowledge-Wisdom (DIKW) paradigm. In the context of an Earth Observation (EO) SoS, a set of main elements are recognized as connecting links for generating knowledge from EO and non-EO data – e.g. social and economic datasets. These elements are: Essential Variables (EVs), Indicators and Indexes, Goals and Targets. Their generation and use requires the development of a SoS KB whose management process has evolved the GEOSS Software Ecosystem into a GEOSS Social Ecosystem. This includes: collect, formalize, publish, access, use, and update knowledge. ConnectinGEO project analysed the knowledge necessary to recognize, formalize, access, and use EVs. The analysis recognized GEOSS gaps providing recommendations on supporting global decision-making within and across different domains.     

Towards integrated essential variables for sustainability

ABSTRACT

Measuring the achievement of a sustainable development requires the integration of various data sets and disciplines describing bio-physical and socio-economic conditions. These data allow characterizing any location on Earth, assessing the status of the environment at various scales (e.g. national, regional, global), understanding interactions between different systems (e.g. atmosphere, hydrosphere, biosphere, geosphere), and modeling future changes. The Group on Earth Observations (GEO) was established in 2005 in response to the need for coordinated, comprehensive, and sustained observations related to the state of the Earth. GEO’s global engagement priorities include supporting the UN 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, the Paris Agreement on Climate, and the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction. A proposition is made for generalizing and integrating the concept of EVs across the Societal Benefit Areas of GEO and across the border between Socio-Economic and Earth systems EVs. The contributions of the European Union projects ConnectinGEO and GEOEssential in the evaluation of existing EV classes are introduced. Finally, the main aim of the 10 papers of the special issue is shortly presented and mapped according to the proposed typology of SBA-related EV classes.     

Nile floods recorded in deep Mediterranean sediments

Clastic mud beds rich in continental organic matter are observed recurrently in the Nile deep-sea turbidite system. They formed during flooding periods of the river similar to those that induce sapropel formation and occurred during periods of increased density stratification of the eastern Mediterranean. The very fine-grained flood deposits are intercalated within pelagic sediments, sapropels and Bouma-type turbidites. These flood deposits form by the successive reconcentrations of surface (hypopycnal) plumes by convective sedimentation, which in turn generate a fine-grained low-energy hyperpycnal flow. Sea-level high stands seem also to favor hypopycnal plume formation and increase clastic mud bed formation. Consequently, these muddy clastic beds provide a direct link between deep-marine sedimentary records and continental climatic change through flood frequency and magnitude.     

Impact of methane seeps on the local carbon‐isotope record: a case study from a Late Jurassic hemipelagic section

An Oxfordian (Late Jurassic) hemipelagic succession from Beauvoisin (SE France) contains a pronounced, short‐lived negative excursion in the bulk‐carbonate carbon‐isotope record, with an amplitude of 4‰. It was shown previously that the Beauvoisin paleoenvironment was impacted by hydrocarbon seepage. New isotopic data corroborate that methane was a significant constituent of these hydrocarbons. The negative excursion was caused by transient enhanced precipitation of ¹³C‐depleted carbonate, mediated by anaerobic oxidation of methane. Despite its local diagenetic origin, the Beauvoisin excursion is similar in shape and duration to globally recognized negative C‐isotope excursions that have been related to catastrophic, massive dissociation of methane hydrate. Shape and duration of negative excursions therefore cannot be used as an argument when determining their origin if they have not been shown to represent a global perturbation of the carbon cycle.     

Seismic design of yielding structures on flexible foundations

This paper introduces a simple method to consider the effects of inertial soil–structure interaction (SSI) on the seismic demands of a yielding single‐degree‐of‐freedom structure. This involves idealizing the yielding soil–structure system as an effective substitute oscillator having a modified period, damping ratio, and ductility. A parametric study is conducted to obtain the ratio between the displacement ductility demand of a flexible‐base system and that of the corresponding fixed‐base system. It is shown that while additional foundation damping can reduce the overall response, the effects of SSI may also increase the ductility demand of some structures, mostly being ductile and having large structural aspect ratio, up to 15%. Finally, a design procedure is provided for incorporation of the SSI effects on structural response. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Motion control-based seismic retrofit solutions for a R/C school building designed with earlier Technical Standards

The study of two motion control-based seismic retrofit solutions for a low-rise reinforced concrete school building is presented in this paper. The building was assumed as a benchmark structure for a Research Project financed by the Italian Department of Civil Protection, and is representative of several similar public edifices designed with earlier Technical Standards editions, in Italy as well as in other earthquake-prone European countries. The two solutions refer to the alternative earthquake protection strategies based on the concepts of supplemental damping and seismic isolation, respectively. Namely, they consist in the installation of: (1) a dissipative bracing system incorporating pressurized fluid viscous spring-dampers; and (2) a base isolation system including double friction pendulum sliding bearings. The structural characteristics of the building, and a synthesis of the investigation campaigns developed on it, are initially presented. The mechanical parameters, dimensions, locations and installation details of the constituting elements of the two protective systems are then illustrated, along with the performance assessment analyses carried out in original and rehabilitated conditions according to a full non-linear dynamic approach. The results of the analyses show a remarkable enhancement of the seismic response capacities of the structure for both retrofit hypotheses. This allows reaching the mutual high performance levels postulated in the two rehabilitation designs with remarkably lower costs and architectural intrusion as compared to traditional rehabilitation interventions designed for the same objectives.