Hybrid Model for Urban Air Pollution Forecasting: A Stochastic Spatio-Temporal Approach

Air pollution is usually driven by a complex combination of factors in which meteorology, physical obstacles, and interactions between pollutants play significant roles. Considering the characteristics of urban atmospheric pollution and its consequent impacts on human health and quality of life, forecasting models have emerged as an effective tool to identify and forecast air pollution episodes. The overall objective of the present work is to produce forecasts of pollutant concentrations with high spatio-temporal resolution and to quantify the uncertainty in those forecasts. Therefore, a new approach was developed based on a two-step methodology. Firstly, neural network models were used to generate short-term temporal forecasts based on air pollution and meteorology data. The accuracy of those forecasts was then evaluated against an independent set of historical data. Secondly, local conditional distributions of the observed values with respect to the predicted values were used to perform spatial stochastic simulations for the entire geographic area of interest. With this approach the spatio-temporal dispersion of a pollutant can be predicted, while accounting for both the temporal uncertainty in the forecast (reflecting the neural networks efficiency at each monitoring station) and the spatial uncertainty as revealed by the spatial variograms. Based on an analysis of the results, our proposed method offers a highly promising alternative for the characterization of urban air quality.     

Transiting aircraft parameter estimation using underwater acousticsensor data

Sound from an airborne source travels to a receiver beneath the sea surface via a geometric path that is most simply described using ray theory, where the atmosphere and the sea are assumed to be isospeed sound propagation media separated by a planar surface (the air-sea interface). This theoretical approach leads to the development of a time-frequency model for the signal received by a single underwater acoustic sensor and a time-delay model for the signals received by a pair of spatially separated underwater acoustic sensors. The validity of these models is verified using spatially averaged experimental data recorded from a linear array of hydrophones during various transits of a turboprop aircraft. The same approach is used to solve the inverse time-frequency problem, that is, estimation of the aircraft's speed, altitude, and propeller blade rate given the observed variation with time of the instantaneous frequency of the received signal. Similarly, the inverse time-delay problem is considered whereby the speed and altitude of the aircraft are estimated using the differential time-of-arrival information from each of two adjacent pairs of widely spaced hydrophones (with one hydrophone being common to each pair). It is found that the solutions to each of the inverse problems provide reliable estimates of the speed and altitude of the aircraft, with the inverse time-frequency method also providing an estimate that closely matches the actual propeller blade rate     

The organic composition of C/2001 A2 (LINEAR): II. Search for heterogeneity within a comet nucleus

The nucleus of Comet C/2001 A2 (LINEAR) split several times during its recent apparition, presenting an unusual opportunity to search for chemical differences in freshly exposed material. We conducted this search using NIRSPEC at the W.M. Keck Observatory on four dates in 2001: 9.5 and 10.5 July and 4.4 and 10.5 August. We detected the R0 and R1 lines of the ν₃ vibrational band of CH₄ near 3.3 μm on all dates. The R2 line was detected on 4.4 and 10.5 August. When we compare production rates of CH₄ to H₂O, we find evidence of a significant enhancement in August relative to that found in July. H₂CO was securely detected via its ν₁ and ν₅ bands on 9.5 July. On 10.5 July, H₂CO emission was much weaker, and its mixing ratio had dropped by a factor of about four. The mixing ratios for other detected volatile species did not change significantly over the course of the observations. We discuss the implications of this evidence for chemical heterogeneity in the nucleus of Comet C/2001 A2.     

A conceptual hydrogeological model of ophiolitic aquifers (serpentinised peridotite): The test example of Mt. Prinzera (Northern Italy)

The main aim of this study is the experimental analysis of the hydrogeological behaviour of the Mt. Prinzera ultramafic massif in the northern Apennines, Italy. The analysed multidisciplinary database has been acquired through (a) geologic and structural survey; (b) geomorphologic survey; (c) hydrogeological monitoring; (d) physico‐chemical analyses; and (e) isotopic analyses. The ultramafic medium is made of several lithological units, tectonically overlapped. Between them, a low‐permeability, discontinuous unit has been identified. This unit behaves as an aquitard and causes a perched groundwater to temporary flow within the upper medium, close to the surface. This perched groundwater flows out along several structurally controlled depressions, and then several high‐altitude temporary springs can be observed during recharge, together with several perennial basal (i.e., low altitude) springs, caused by the compartmentalisation of the system because of high‐angle tectonic discontinuities.     

The circumnuclear X-ray reflectors in NGC 1068 and the Circinus galaxy

The ASCA and BeppoSAX spectra of the Circinus galaxy and NGC 1068 are analysed and compared with photoionization models based on cloudy . In the case of Circinus, a single, mildly ionized reflector can account for the line spectrum, while in NGC 1068 at least three different reflectors (with different ionization states) are needed. We suggest that the reflector in Circinus and the low ionized one in NGC 1068 are the inner and visible part of the material responsible for the X-ray absorption. With this assumption, we estimate for the inner radius of the absorber a value of 0.2 pc for Circinus and of a few parsecs for NGC 1068.     

Clinoform geometry,geomorphology, facies character and stratigraphic architecture of a sand‐rich subaqueous delta: Jurassic Sognefjord Formation,offshore Norway

The integration of core sedimentology, seismic stratigraphy and seismic geomorphology has enabled interpretation of delta‐scale (i.e. tens of metres high) subaqueous clinoforms in the upper Jurassic Sognefjord Formation of the Troll Field. Mud‐prone subaqueous deltas characterized by a compound clinoform morphology and sandy delta‐scale subaqueous clinoforms are common in recent tide‐influenced, wave‐influenced and current‐influenced settings, but ancient examples are virtually unknown. The data presented help to fully comprehend the criteria for the recognition of other ancient delta‐scale subaqueous clinoforms, as well as refining the depositional model of the reservoir in the super‐giant Troll hydrocarbon field. Two 10 to 60 m thick, overall coarsening‐upward packages are distinguished in the lower Sognefjord Formation. Progressively higher energy, wave‐dominated or current‐dominated facies occur from the base to the top of each package. Each package corresponds to a set of seismically resolved, westerly dipping clinoforms, the bounding surfaces of which form the seismic ‘envelope’ of a clinoform set and the major marine flooding surfaces recognized in cores. The packages thicken westwards, until they reach a maximum where the clinoform ‘envelope’ rolls over to define a topset–foreset–toeset geometry. All clinoforms are consistently oriented sub‐parallel to the edge of the Horda Platform (N005–N030). In the eastern half of the field, individual foresets are relatively gently dipping (1° to 6°) and bound thin (10 to 30 m) clinothems. Core data indicate that these proximal clinothems are dominated by fine‐grained, hummocky cross‐stratified sandstones. Towards the west, clinoforms gradually become steeper (5° to 14°) and bound thicker (15 to 60 m) clinothems that comprise medium‐grained, cross‐bedded sandstones. Topsets are consistently well‐developed, except in the westernmost area. No seismic or sedimentological evidence of subaerial exposure is observed. Deposition created fully subaqueous, near‐linear clinoforms that prograded westwards across the Horda Platform. Subaqueous clinoforms were probably fed by a river outlet in the north‐east and sculpted by the action of currents sub‐parallel to the clinoform strike.