Basis for a streamflow forecasting system to Rincón del Bonete and Salto Grande (Uruguay)

This paper presents the basis for the design of streamflow prediction systems for the hydroelectric dams of Rincón del Bonete (Uruguay) and Salto Grande (Uruguay–Argentina). The prediction is made, independently, for each reservoir and each month of the year with two methodologies: data-driven statistical models and hybrid downscaling that includes atmospheric predictors. We determine a set of potential predictors and then fit linear models coupled with variable selection techniques, under the hypothesis of perfectly known predictors. The predictive skill of the schemes outperforms the climatological forecast throughout the year in both reservoirs (except August in Rincón del Bonete). This remains the case even when the forecast lead does not allow for the use of preceding flows as predictors. While in Rincón del Bonete it is not possible to distinguish a period of high predictability, in Salto Grande, there is a robust signal in March–May and October–December.     

Spectral study of the Eunomia asteroid family : I. Eunomia

We present color ratio curves of the S-Asteroid 15 Eunomia, which have been extracted from high-precision photometric lightcurves obtained in three different VNIR wavelength bands at the Bochum Telescope, La Silla. The measured color ratio curves and near infrared spectra were used to derive a detailed surface composition model whose shape has been computed by V-lightcurve inversions. According to this analysis, the asteroid shows on one hemisphere a higher concentration of pyroxene, which causes an increased 440/700 nm and a reduced 940/700 nm reflectance ratio as well as a pronounced 2-μm absorption band. The remaining surface shows a higher concentration of olivine, leading to a reduced 440/700 nm and slightly increased 940/700 nm color ratio. In addition, we found that the maximum of the 440/700 nm color ratio curve coincide with the minimum of the 940/700 nm color ratio curve and vice versa. We demonstrate on the basis of USGS laboratory spectra that this anti-cyclical behavior can be explained by choosing Fe-rich olivine and a pyroxene with moderate Fe content as varying mineral phases. Furthermore, our observations confirm that 15 Eunomia is an irregular elongated and at least partially differentiated body. Previous spectral investigations of several smaller fragments of the Eunomia asteroid family revealed that the amount of fragments showing an increased pyroxene content exceeds the amount of pyroxene-poor fragments (Nathues, 2000, DLR Forschungsbericht, ISSN 1434-8454). This finding together with the observation that the major fraction of Eunomia's surface is enriched in olivine let us claim that a large fraction of the original pyroxene-enriched crust layer has been lost due to a major collision that created the Eunomia asteroid family. Significant spectral evidences, consistent with high concentrations of metals have been found neither in the rotational resolved spectra of 15 Eunomia nor in its fragments. This led to the conclusion that either no core consisting mainly of metals exists or that an eventual one has not been unearthed by the impact.     

The dark matter problem in disc galaxies

In the generic CDM cosmogony, dark-matter haloes emerge too lumpy and centrally concentrated to host observed galactic discs. Moreover, discs are predicted to be smaller than those observed. We argue that the resolution of these problems may lie with a combination of the effects of protogalactic discs, which would have had a mass comparable to that of the inner dark halo and be plausibly non-axisymmetric, and of massive galactic winds, which at early times may have carried off as many baryons as a galaxy now contains. A host of observational phenomena, from quasar absorption lines and intracluster gas through the G-dwarf problem, point to the existence of such winds. Dynamical interactions will homogenize and smooth the inner halo, and the observed disc will be the relic of a massive outflow. The inner halo expanded after absorbing energy and angular momentum from the ejected material. Observed discs formed at the very end of the galaxy formation process, after the halo had been reduced to a minor contributor to the central mass budget and strong radial streaming of the gas had died down.     

Comment on “General relativity resolves galactic rotation without exotic dark matter” by F.I. Cooperstock and S. Tieu

The general relativistic model of Cooperstock and Tieu, which attempts to fit rotation curves of spiral galaxies without invoking dark matter, is tested empirically using observations of the Milky Way. In particular, predictions for the mass density in the solar neighbourhood and the vertical density distribution at the position of the Sun are compared with observations. It is shown that the model of Cooperstock and Tieu, which was so constructed that it gives an excellent fit of the observed rotation curve, singularly fails to reproduce the observed local mass density and the vertical density profile of the Milky Way.     

Milky Way Gas Dynamics

The Milky Way is made up of a central bar, a disk with embedded spiral arms, and a dark matter halo. Observational and theoretical constraints for the characteristic parameters of these components will be presented, with emphasis on the constraints from the dynamics of the Milky Way gas. In particular, the fraction of dark matter inside the solar radius, the location of the main resonances, and the evidence for multiple pattern speeds will be discussed.Invited talk at the AAS Division on Dynamical Astronomy meeting, Santa Barbara, April 2005     

A comparison of cumulus parameterization schemes in a numerical weather prediction model for a monsoon rainfall event

In order to evaluate cumulus parameterization (CP) schemes for hydrological applications, the Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research's fifth‐generation mesoscale model (MM5) was used to simulate a summer monsoon in east China. The performances of five CP schemes (Anthes–Kuo, Betts–Miller, Fritsch–Chappell, Kain–Fritsch, and Grell) were evaluated in terms of their ability to simulate amount of rainfall during the heavy, moderate, and light phases of the event. The Grell scheme was found to be the most robust, performing well at all rainfall intensity and spatial scales. The Betts–Miller scheme also performed well, particularly at larger scales, but its assumptions may make it inapplicable to non‐tropical environments and at smaller scales. The Kain–Fritsch scheme was the best at simulating moderate rainfall rates, and was found to be superior to the Fritsch–Chappell scheme on which it was based. The Anthes–Kuo scheme was found to underpredict precipitation consistently at the mesoscale. Simulation performance was found to improve when schemes that included downdrafts were used in conjunction with schemes that did not include downdrafts. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.