An Integrated Assessment of changes in the thermohaline circulation

This paper discusses the risks of a shutdown of the thermohaline circulation (THC) for the climate system, for ecosystems in and around the North Atlantic as well as for fisheries and agriculture by way of an Integrated Assessment. The climate model simulations are based on greenhouse gas scenarios for the 21st century and beyond. A shutdown of the THC, complete by 2150, is triggered if increased freshwater input from inland ice melt or enhanced runoff is assumed. The shutdown retards the greenhouse gas-induced atmospheric warming trend in the Northern Hemisphere, but does not lead to a persistent net cooling. Due to the simulated THC shutdown the sea level at the North Atlantic shores rises by up to 80 cm by 2150, in addition to the global sea level rise. This could potentially be a serious impact that requires expensive coastal protection measures. A reduction of marine net primary productivity is associated with the impacts of warming rather than a THC shutdown. Regional shifts in the currents in the Nordic Seas could strongly deteriorate survival chances for cod larvae and juveniles. This could lead to cod fisheries becoming unprofitable by the end of the 21st century. While regional socioeconomic impacts might be large, damages would be probably small in relation to the respective gross national products. Terrestrial ecosystem productivity is affected much more by the fertilization from the increasing CO₂ concentration than by a THC shutdown. In addition, the level of warming in the 22nd to 24th century favours crop production in northern Europe a lot, no matter whether the THC shuts down or not. CO₂ emissions corridors aimed at limiting the risk of a THC breakdown to 10% or less are narrow, requiring departure from business-as-usual in the next few decades. The uncertainty about THC risks is still high. This is seen in model analyses as well as in the experts’ views that were elicited. The overview of results presented here is the outcome of the Integrated Assessment project INTEGRATION.     

Multimodel analysis on the response of the AMOC under an increase of radiative forcing and its symmetrical reversal

Climate Dynamics - The response of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) to an increase of radiative forcing (ramp-up) and a subsequent reversal of radiative forcing (ramp-down) is...     

Measurements of Powder Snow Avalanches- Laboratory -

Laboratory simulation of powder snow avalanches serves for the validation of numerical models and as a tool in its own right for consulting and research purposes. Two-phase gravity currents are simulated in water with quartz powder or glass spheres as the particle phase. Particle-phase velocity profiles and particle-phase volume fraction profiles are measured with an ultrasonic device. The experimental setup and the current state of the measurement technique are described and preliminary results are presented.     

Exploring hydroclimatic change disparity via the Budyko framework

The Budyko framework characterizes landscape water cycles as a function of climate. We used this framework to identify regions with contrasting hydroclimatic change during the past 50 years in Sweden. This analysis revealed three distinct regions: the mountains, the forests, and the areas with agriculture. Each region responded markedly different to recent climate and anthropogenic changes, and within each region, we identified the most sensitive subregions. These results highlight the need for regional differentiation in climate change adaptation strategies to protect vulnerable ecosystems and freshwater resources. Further, the Budyko curve moved systematically towards its water and energy limits, indicating augmentation of the water cycle driven by changing vegetation, climate and human interactions. This finding challenges the steady state assumption of the Budyko curve and therefore its ability to predict future water cycles. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

BIFoR FACE: Water–soil–vegetation–atmosphere data from a temperate deciduous forest catchment,including under elevated CO2

The ecosystem services provided by forests modulate runoff generation processes, nutrient cycling and water and energy exchange between soils, vegetation and atmosphere. Increasing atmospheric CO₂ affects many linked aspects of forest and catchment function in ways we do not adequately understand. Global levels of atmospheric CO₂ will be around 40% higher in 2050 than current levels, yet estimates of how water and solute fluxes in forested catchments will respond to increased CO₂ are highly uncertain. The Free Air CO₂ Enrichment (FACE) facility of the University of Birmingham's Institute of Forest Research (BIFoR) is the only FACE in mature deciduous forest. The site specializes in fundamental studies of the response of whole ecosystem patches of mature, deciduous, temperate woodland to elevated CO₂ (eCO₂). Here, we describe a dataset of hydrological parameters – seven weather parameters at each of three heights and four locations, shallow soil moisture and temperature, stream hydrology and CO₂ enrichment – retrieved at high frequency from the BIFoR FACE catchment.     

Mesocosm experiments identifying hotspots of groundwater upwelling in a water column by fibre optic distributed temperature sensing

Lacustrine groundwater discharge (LGD) can substantially impact ecosystem characteristics and functions. Fibre optic distributed temperature sensing (FO‐DTS) has been successfully used to locate groundwater discharge into lakes and rivers at the sediment–water interface, but locating groundwater discharge would be easier if it could be detected from the more accessible water surface. So far, it is not clear if how and under which conditions the LGD signal propagates through the water column to the water surface–atmosphere interface, and what perturbations and signal losses occur along this pathway. In the present study, LGD was simulated in a mesocosm experiment. Under winter conditions, water with temperatures of 14 to 16 °C was discharged at the bottom of a 10 × 2.8‐m mesocosm. Water within this mesocosm ranged from 4.0 to 7.4 °C. Four layers (20, 40, 60, and 80 cm above the sediment) of the 82 cm deep mesocosm were equipped with FO‐DTS for tracing thermal patterns in the mesocosm. Aims are (a) to test whether the positive buoyancy of relatively warm groundwater imported by LGD into shallow water bodies allows detection of LGD at the lake's water surface–atmosphere interface by FO‐DTS, (b) to analyse the propagation of the temperature signal from the sediment‐water interface through the water column, and (c) to learn more about detectability of the signal under different discharge rates and weather conditions. The experiments supported the benchmarking of scale dependencies and robustness of FO‐DTS applications for measuring upwelling into aquatic environments and revealed that weather conditions can have important impacts on the detection of upwelling at water surface–atmosphere interfaces at larger scales.     

The Relation Between Humidity and Liquid Water Content in Fog: An Experimental Approach

Microphysical measurements of orographic fog were performed above a montane cloud forest in northeastern Taiwan (Chilan mountain site). The measured parameters include droplet size distribution (DSD), absolute humidity (AH), relative humidity (RH), air temperature, wind speed and direction, visibility, and solar short wave radiation. The scope of this work was to study the short term variations of DSD, temperature, and RH, with a temporal resolution of 3?Hz. The results show that orographic fog is randomly composed of various air volumes that are intrinsically rather homogeneous, but exhibit clear differences between each other with respect to their size, RH, LWC, and DSD. Three general types of air volumes have been identified via the recorded DSD. A statistical analysis of the characteristics of these volumes yielded large variabilities in persistence, RH, and LWC. Further, the data revealed an inverse relation between RH and LWC. In principle, this finding can be explained by the condensational growth theory for droplets containing soluble or insoluble material. Droplets with greater diameters can exist at lower ambient RH than smaller ones. However, condensational growth alone is not capable to explain the large observed differences in DSD and RH because the respective growth speeds are too slow to explain the observed phenomena. Other mechanisms play key roles as well. Possible processes leading to the large observed differences in RH and DSD include turbulence induced collision and coalescence, and heterogeneous mixing. More analyses including fog droplet chemistry and dynamic microphysical modeling are required to further study these processes. To our knowledge, this is the first experimental field observation of the anti-correlation between RH and LWC in fog.     

Pressure-specific and multiple pressure response of fish assemblages in European running waters

We classified homogenous river types across Europe and searched for fish metrics qualified to show responses to specific pressures (hydromorphological pressures or water quality pressures) vs. multiple pressures in these river types. We analysed fish taxa lists from 3105 sites in 16 ecoregions and 14 countries. Sites were pre-classified for 15 selected pressures to separate unimpacted from impacted sites. Hierarchical cluster analysis was used to split unimpacted sites into four homogenous river types based on species composition and geographical location. Classification trees were employed to predict associated river types for impacted sites with four environmental variables. We defined a set of 129 candidate fish metrics to select the best reacting metrics for each river type. The candidate metrics represented tolerances/intolerances of species associated with six metric types: habitat, migration, water quality sensitivity, reproduction, trophic level and biodiversity. The results showed that 17 uncorrelated metrics reacted to pressures in the four river types. Metrics responded specifically to water quality pressures and hydromorphological pressures in three river types and to multiple pressures in all river types. Four metrics associated with water quality sensitivity showed a significant reaction in up to three river types, whereas 13 metrics were specific to individual river types. Our results contribute to the better understanding of fish assemblage response to human pressures at a pan-European scale. The results are especially important for European river management and restoration, as it is necessary to uncover underlying processes and effects of human pressures on aquatic communities.     

Modelling climate and land-use change impacts with SWIM: lessons learnt from multiple applications

Abstract

The Soil and Water Integrated Model (SWIM) is a continuous-time semi-distributed ecohydrological model, integrating hydrological processes, vegetation, nutrients and erosion. It was developed for impact assessment at the river basin scale. SWIM is coupled to GIS and has modest data requirements. During the last decade SWIM was extensively tested in mesoscale and large catchments for hydrological processes (discharge, groundwater), nutrients, extreme events (floods and low flows), crop yield and erosion. Several modules were developed further (wetlands and snow dynamics) or introduced (glaciers, reservoirs). After validation, SWIM can be applied for impact assessment. Four exemplary studies are presented here, and several questions important to the impact modelling community are discussed. For which processes and areas can the model be used? Where are the limits in model application? How to apply the model in data-poor situations or in ungauged basins? How to use the model in basins subject to strong anthropogenic pressure?

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor C. Perrin