The extreme value distribution of 5-min rainfall data at Belgrade

Summary For practical applications both the parent distribution of rainfall intensities and the distribution of their annual maxima are of interest. The relationship between these two distributions cannot be obtained from classical extreme value theory because of seasonal variation and serial correlation in the data. Mathematical results for the distribution of maxima in m-dependent sequences are presented to illustrate the effect of local dependence on the extreme value distribution. The average number of exceedances in a cluster is an important parameter in the relationship between the parent and the extreme value distribution. For 5-min rainfall data from Belgrade, quantiles of the annual maxima are overestimated by about 10 mm h^–1 if the effect of serial correlation is ignored. This bias can easily be removed by taking the local clustering of large rainfall intensities in a rainy spell into account.With 4 Figures     

Numerical case study of the Altai-Sayan lee cyclogenesis over East Asia

Summary Climatological studies show that the Altai-Sayan lee side is one of the major cyclogenesis areas in the Northern Hemisphere. In case of the Altai-Sayan lee cyclogenesis, the surface cyclone is generated when a primary cyclone is swept north of the mountains. In the mid-troposphere, a trough develops and finally turns into a cutoff low within 48 h. The main synoptic features are similar to those of Alpine cyclogenesis. Numerical simulations are performed to assess the effect of different representation of orography on the Altai-Sayan cyclogenesis. Two experiments are performed, a step-mountain (ETA) and an envelope orography (SGM) experiment. The ETA experiment produced the cyclogenesis in a way similar to that in the analysis both at the surface and at mid-troposphere. The SGM experiment failed in the simulation of the upper cutoff low. The difference in predicted pressure between the ETA and the SGM experiment shows a dipolar structure suggesting that the blocking effect of the mountains is essential in the development of the Altai-Sayan lee cyclogenesis.With 7 Figures     

Examination of physical processes of convective cell evolved from a MCS — Using a different model initialization

The present study is focused on examination of the physical processes of convective cell evolved from a MCS occurred on 4 November 2011 over Genoa, Italy. The Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPF) have been performed using WRF v3.6 model under different configurations and cloud permitting simulations. The results indicate underestimation of the amount of precipitation and spatial displacement of the area with a peak 24-h accumulated rainfall in (mm). Our main objective in the research is to test the cloud model ability and performance in simulation of this particular case. For that purpose a set of sensitivity experiments under different model initializations and initial data have been conducted. The results also indicate that the merging process apparently alters the physical processes through low- and middle-level forcing, increasing cloud depth, and enhancing convection. The examination of the microphysical process simulated by the model indicates that dominant production terms are the accretion of rain by graupel and snow, probabilistic freezing of rain to form graupel and dry and wet growth of graupel. Experiment under WRF v3.6 model initialization has shown some advantage in simulation of the physical processes responsible for production and initiation of heavy rainfall compared to other model runs. Most of the precipitation came from ice-phase particles-via accretion processes and the graupel melting at temperature T₀ ≥ 0°C. The rainfall intensity and accumulated rainfall calculated by the model closely reflect the amount of rainfall recorded. Thus, the main benefit is to better resolve convective showers or storms which, in extreme cases, can give rise to major flooding events. In such a way, this model may become major contributor to improvements in weather analysis and small-scale atmospheric predictions and early warnings of such subscale processes.     

Annual and seasonal variability of precipitation in Vojvodina,Serbia

Annual and seasonal variability of precipitation observed at 92 stations in Vojvodina (Serbia) were analyzed during the period 1946–2006. The rainfall series were examined by means of the empirical orthogonal functions (EOF). The first set of singular vectors explains from 68.8 % (in summer) to 81.8 % (in winter) of the total variance. The temporal variability of the time series associated with the main EOF configurations (the principal components, PCs) was examined using the Mann–Kendall test and the spectral analysis. The time series of PC1 revealed decreasing trend in the winter and spring precipitation and increasing trend in the autumn, summer, and annual precipitation. The relationships between the first PC and circulation patterns, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the East Atlantic (EA) pattern, and East Atlantic/West Russia pattern, were also investigated. The PC1, displaying temporal behavior of the first mode, demonstrated evident correspondence with the NAO index in analysis of the annual, winter, and autumn precipitation. Power spectra of the PC1 show statistically significant oscillations of about 3.3 years for the spring precipitation and about 8 and 15 years for the winter precipitation. Comparisons with spectral analysis of authors for some regions in Europe, most of them in the Mediterranean domain, show that similar periodicities are detected.     

Chrystal and Proudman resonances simulated with three numerical models

The aim of this work was to study Chrystal and Proudman resonances in a simple closed basin and to explore and compare how well the two resonant mechanisms are reproduced with different, nowadays widely used, numerical ocean models. The test case was based on air pressure disturbances of two commonly used shapes (a sinusoidal and a boxcar), having various wave lengths, and propagating at different speeds. Our test domain was a closed rectangular basin, 300 km long with a uniform depth of 50 m, with the theoretical analytical solution available for benchmark. In total, 2250 simulations were performed for each of the three different numerical models: ADCIRC, SCHISM and ROMS. During each of the simulations, we recorded water level anomalies and computed the integral of the energy density spectrum for a number of points distributed along the basin. We have successfully documented the transition from Proudman to Chrystal resonance that occurs for a sinusoidal air pressure disturbance having a wavelength between one and two basin lengths. An inter-model comparison of the results shows that different models represent the two resonant phenomena in a slightly different way. For Chrystal resonance, all the models showed similar behavior; however, ADCIRC model providing slightly higher values of the mean resonant period than the other two models. In the case of Proudman resonance, the most consistent results, closest to the analytical solution, were obtained using ROMS model, which reproduced the mean resonant speed equal to 22.00 m/s— i.e., close to the theoretical value of 22.15 m/s. ADCIRC and SCHISM models showed small deviations from that value, with the mean speed being slightly lower—21.97 m/s (ADCIRC) and 21.93 m/s (SCHISM). The findings may seem small but could play an important role when resonance is a crucial process producing enhancing effects by two orders of magnitude (i.e., meteotsunamis).     

A visual basic spreadsheet macro for geochemical background analysis

A Visual Basic macro entitled BACKGROUND calculates geochemical background values of chemical parameters and estimates threshold values separating background data from anomalies. The macro uses two statistical methods, the iterative 2-sigma technique and the calculated distribution function, and integrates these model-based objective methods into a widely accessible platform (i.e., MS Excel). The macro offers the possibility for automated processing of geochemical data and enables an automated generation of background range and threshold values for chemical parameters.     

Deep water ventilation traced by <Emphasis Type="Italic">Synechococcus</Emphasis> cyanobacteria

The paper describes a finding of photoautotroph cyanobacteria Synechococcus in deep Adriatic waters during the spring of 2006. The maximum abundance in early May was positioned at 800 m, being of order of the values referred for the surface waters in the Adriatic Sea. The deep abundance maximum has been associated to the fast ventilation of deep Adriatic waters, usually occurring during wintertime strong cooling events. Two processes were detected: (1) deep convection in the South Adriatic Pit (SAP) and (2) density current going downslope. The first process was responsible for bringing the cyanobacteria down to 600-m depth in the area of convection, and the second one triggered the downslope transport of the cyanobacteria to the SAP very bottom. The depletion rate of Synechoccocus cyanobacteria in an extremely hostile environment has been computed to equal about 1 month.     

Magmatic structures in the Krkonoše–Jizera Plutonic Complex,Bohemian Massif: evidence for localized multiphase flow and small-scale thermal–mechanical instabilities in a granitic magma chamber

The present paper examines magmatic structures in the Jizera and Liberec granites of the Krkonoše–Jizera Plutonic Complex, Bohemian Massif. The magmatic structures are here interpreted to preserve direct field evidence for highly localized magma flow and other processes in crystal-rich mushes, and to capture the evolution of physical processes in an ancient granitic magma chamber. We propose that after chamber-wide mixing and hybridization, as suggested by recent petrological studies, laminar magma flow became highly localized to weaker channel-like domains within the higher-strength crystal framework. Mafic schlieren formed at flow rims, and their formation presumably involved gravitational settling and velocity gradient flow sorting coupled with interstitial melt escape. Local thermal or compositional convection may have resulted in the formation of vertical schlieren tubes and ladder dikes whereas subhorizontal tubes or channels formed during flow driven by lateral gradients in magma pressure. After the cessation or deceleration of channel flow, gravity-driven processes (settling of crystals and enclaves, gravitational differentiation, development of downward dripping instabilities), accompanied by compaction, filter pressing and melt segregation, dominated in the crystal mush within the flow channels. Subsequently, magmatic folds developed in schlieren layers and the magma chamber recorded complex, late magmatic strains at high magma crystallinities. Late-stage magma pulsing into localized submagmatic cracks represents the latest events of magmatic history of the chamber prior to its final crystallization. We emphasize that the most favorable environments for the formation and preservation of magmatic structures, such as those hosted in the Jizera and Liberec granites, are slowly cooling crystal-rich mushes. Therefore, where preserved in plutons, these structures may lend strong support for a “mush model” of magmatic systems.